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What about the gas guzzlers?

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 14:00 UTC (Fri) by paulj (subscriber, #341)
In reply to: What about the gas guzzlers? by malmedal
Parent article: Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

We have indeed wasted far too much time - many decades now, given I've been discussing climate change with people since the 90s. And a recurring theme I get from "greens" is they propose some _future_, *unproven* technology as being the reason for not building out nuclear _now_. From "carbon capture" to (now) mass battery storage, these are _unproven_ technologies at scale. We have pilots, but we have _0_ countries where this technology is proven to be able to store sufficient energy from renewables to be able to provide base-load capacity to grids.

Nuclear is proven. We have countries with energy surpluses, cause they built-out nuclear decades ago, instead of going with this "But but <handwave about some latest great hope technology that, at best, has PoCs but no proven at scale deployment> means we can don't nuclear!". Along with "But nuclear would take a decade to build!".

And what is the end-result. The end-result is that I have been listening to this for _decades_ now. Decades of ignoring the fact we have a near-0 carbon (most of the carbon is in the concrete of the build probably) energy source that is capable of providing _abundant_ reliable energy. Decades of continuing to burn coal and gas instead.

The "Nuclear is expensive" argument is flawed in 2 ways:

1. It is typically based, in whole or part, on the US market. Except the US market appears to be incredibly dysfunctional and inefficient, for whatever reason. The US is an _outlier_ on cost. If you instead look at France or China - whose energy companies are the ones most of the rest of the world would bring in to build and manage new nuclear - the cost is quite competitive.| France has quite reasonably priced electricity.

2. Second flaw is comparing nuclear energy to cheap renewables. Yes, solar is cheap. But the whole reason to look at nuclear is that solar (and other renewables) are unreliable and hence _require_ some other energy source for base-load generation. You can not compare the two. Cheap solar power is no good at night.

And, have you even factored in the cost of the large scale battery banks you advocate for into your solar costs?


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What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 14:18 UTC (Fri) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (2 responses)

And I'll simply throw in the crazy dysfunctional (anti)incentives for solar in the UK.

I think, on all three of my solar arrays, I get paid for feeding in to the system roughly 1/3rd what I get paid for taking out. Which encourages me to provide my own (inefficient) batteries etc to try and "save" energy. DAFT!

What should happen (and happens accidentally on my home array) is I have an old-fashioned electricity meter that runs backwards when my panels are generating a surplus. So I actually only pay for my net consumption.

The other thing in the UK (and I'm sure other countries could build them) is we have one or two hydroelectric "batteries" where excess base load at night is used to pump water up a mountain, and then it's released at times of peak demand. Given that those times used to be commercial advertisement breaks when everybody put the kettle on, and those days are long past, I'm sure they would go a long way to reducing our need for gas or whatever to iron out fluctuations in wind and solar.

(I think they are 500MW stations, and can go from 0 to full power in 30 seconds ...)

Given a decent weather forecast we can predict renewable generation. We can predict electric demand. Given sufficient notice, there's no reason why nuclear can't be ramped up and down even over a short time period. And then we've got one or two of these huge batteries to allow for differences between forecast and reality.

(Of course, the other thing to do is switch the domestic gas network to hydrogen (or in the interim a hydrogen/methane mix), and store surplus generation as hydrogen in the existing gas storage network!)

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 17:50 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

> I think, on all three of my solar arrays, I get paid for feeding in to the system roughly 1/3rd what I get paid for taking out. Which encourages me to provide my own (inefficient) batteries etc to try and "save" energy. DAFT!

Sounds reasonable, or even generous depending on your local neighbourhood. If your neighbour is using the power you create, that's reasonably efficient. But if it has to go back out through the nearest transformer most of it will be lost...

> Given sufficient notice, there's no reason why nuclear can't be ramped up and down even over a short time period.

No, current nuclear plants can't ramp up and down even once per day.

> switch the domestic gas network to hydrogen

You can add maybe 20% extra hydrogen to most existing gas networks. Hydrogen molecules are small and will leak from pipes that are designed for natural gas.

However, there's a company planning to generate hydrogen and capture CO2 from the air and create methane and even heavier hydrocarbons from that. We'll see if they can do it cheaply enough.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 22:10 UTC (Fri) by kleptog (subscriber, #1183) [Link]

> What should happen (and happens accidentally on my home array) is I have an old-fashioned electricity meter that runs backwards when my panels are generating a surplus. So I actually only pay for my net consumption.

Absolutely not. The grid has one requirement: power generated = power consumed at all times. If you are generating and consuming power and not making any effort to correlate the two, then you are asking someone else to do it for you and they obviously want to be paid for that. Which happens now via the difference in pricing between your production and consumption.

The different between (predicted) production and (predicted) consumption has to be rectified by the energy imbalance markets, because while we can predict production to some extent, predicting consumption is obviously also not 100% perfect. In NL households without solar panels cost energy companies €4-8/MWh in imbalance costs, but with solar panels €32-65/MWh. These costs used to be distributed over all customers, but there are now moves to charge solar panel owners directly, unless they take steps like disconnecting their solar panels when the electricity price goes negative, or installing a battery.

There's no doubt we could be much smarter about it, with community batteries and allowing you to match your production with your neighbours consumption, but those technologies are only just starting to be rolled out. People who think they can just install solar panels and call it a day massively underestimate the complexities of the electricity grid.

Nuclear in France

Posted Jun 14, 2024 14:43 UTC (Fri) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link] (2 responses)

I happen to know a bit about the French nuclear market, and it's also an outlier when it comes to the cost of nuclear, because the vast majority of their reactors were subsidized by the DGA - France wants to be self-sufficient when it comes to producing nuclear weapons, and in the 1960s and 1970s that meant having domestic reactors that can be repurposed to provide bomb-making materials. It also has a second tier of subsidy for nuclear power because it wants to be self-sufficient in energy, and doesn't have enough fossil fuels to make that practical without nuclear.

Similarly, Japan and China are both outliers because their national governments are willing to heavily subsidise nuclear power in order to avoid having to import power or fuel from outside the country; in Japan's case because it's nuclear or imports, and in China's case because they're aware that burning fossil fuels is a massively time-limited exercise and want to be ready for when it's no longer practical to do so.

Indeed, the only country I can find that has no direct state subsidy for nuclear power, and yet a significant civilian nuclear power industry, is the USA. Even other countries with a dysfunctional nuclear industry (like the UK and Germany) have state subsidy for nuclear.

I have theories as to why this is, but this is very off-topic for LWN, so I'll stop here.

Nuclear in France

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:31 UTC (Fri) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link] (1 responses)

Are there any major power generation systems that do not get build-out subsidies? E.g., solar in the market I'm familiar with currently has extensive subsidies available to cover initial capital costs, both for consumers and commercial projects.

Further, if we want to compare a hydrocarbon plant built without subsidies, to a nuclear one paid for by the state, are we taking into account the fact that the market as it stands generally have no way to price in the cost of the CO2 emissions. I.e., the HC plant is getting that for free - effectively a subsidy too, against the ongoing and future costs incurred to the rest of society by climate change from CO2. Many arguments I've been in do not account for that cost.

If CO2 is going to cause catastrophic damage to large parts of the planet, then the fair present cost of CO2 emissions is basically infinite. If a near-0 carbon electricity system requires nuclear to achieve it, then any subsidy TO ANY LEVEL is _worth it_!

For France, in terms of the annual operational basis I thought EDF were running on a commercial basis. They have an agreement with the french state to provide a certain amount of electricity at minimum, capped to a certain price, and they have to meet their operational costs and extract profits within those parameters. That was my understanding when I went and read EDF reports on this on their costs, as part of a similar debate I was having with someone else.

Who cares if it took subsidies to build the plants. Unless you believe there exists some monetary value past which the damage of CO2 emissions is OK, then this is irrelevant - given the technology available today that is proven to be able to provide reliable, abundant base-load capacity.

On the US market question, you're saying basically everyone else is an outlier. Maybe that's true on "unsubsidised" energy markets, but.. who cares about that? If:

- nearly all energy markets across the world work on a "state subsidises builds in order to get sane planning" (not least because true competition in energy networks and physical delivery is basically impossible; along with market difficulties in building plants in a pure market-competition way)
- every energy market simply is dysfunctional anyway simply on the basis of having no (or near no) ability to correctly price in the societal/global cost of CO2 emissions (which then can only be corrected by state planning, likely by use of subsidies if it wishes to devolve implementation to commercial companies)

Then the "pure" market with no subsidies is indeed both dysfunctional and inefficient, on that view. And the US is indeed the outlier.

Nuclear in France

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:55 UTC (Fri) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link]

EDF are now operating on a commercial basis, but their fleet of nuclear plants was gifted to them at privatisation, and the state has agreed to cover the cost of insuring the plants against major incidents other than those caused by operations, and the cost of decommissioning the plant at end of life. This is a major subsidy to nuclear.

Your point about hydrocarbon plants is reasonable, but note that once you account for the subsidy they're given in terms of being permitted to emit CO2 without penalty at the price that Climeworks and other such companies can currently remove CO2 at a profit, hydrocarbon plants come off more expensive than nuclear, but note that renewables and sufficient battery storage to cover the base load comes out cheaper than nuclear for most inhabited parts of the planet (some parts of Siberia are an exception).

And that's the problem with nuclear as it exists today; if you account for the subsidies, while it's cheaper than fossil hydrocarbon plants, it's more expensive than the combination of wind and solar with NiMH or Li battery chemistries to cover peak use. This only gets worse when you take into account the ability to site batteries near both demand and supply, reducing the need for expensive transmission network upgrades, whereas siting nuclear or hydrocarbon plants in residential areas is problematic simply because they're industrial plants (ignoring fears around nuclear waste etc).

Note, too, that the energy industry has a huge blind spot when it comes to small-scale battery and renewable installations; in most of the world, any battery or renewable installation that's not connected to the high voltage grid (132 kV and above for my location) is treated as part of demand for energy, not part of supply. As a result, we're fairly confident that the projections that say you "need" nuclear for base load are completely and utterly wrong - they're based on the assumption that every single house you see with solar panels on it does not generate any electricity locally, and that batteries attached to houses (Tesla Powerwalls and similar) charge from the grid and turn that energy into heat, rather than supplying it (minus losses) to the house at a later point in time. These are known to be bad assumptions, but actually changing them runs into quagmires about how exactly to account for them.

Disclaimer: I actually work in the electricity sector, and I'm basing some of the above on industry insider information, not on public sources.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 15:27 UTC (Fri) by rschroev (subscriber, #4164) [Link] (2 responses)

In my experience it's not the greens who are betting on unproven technologies; it's more the people who think we all can carry on without any chance, and technology will save us.

Greens, in my experience, advocate using as few of our resources as possible, and as efficiently as possible.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:19 UTC (Fri) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (1 responses)

Depends which greens.

There was an almighty fuss over the Peace lot and a defunct oilrig, and while I've no doubt the oil company was looking to save money, there was also an extremely good eco argument for what they wanted to do. The Greens' attitude came over as "we don't care why it might be a good idea, you can't do that!"

I've always been extremely wary of them since.

It's like the anti-hunting brigade. Most active conservationists hate them, not because they agree with hunting (they don't), but the hunting brigade are prepared to PAY for conservation, precisely because they want stuff to hunt! They make unlikely bedfellows, but pragmatism pushes hunters and conservationists together.

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:25 UTC (Fri) by corbet (editor, #1) [Link]

We are getting increasingly off-topic here, perhaps it's time to wind this one down.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 17:29 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

> We have pilots, but we have _0_ countries where this technology is proven to be able to store sufficient energy from renewables to be able to provide base-load capacity to grids.

We have many countries, one of which is the US, where this is proven. In terms of instantaneous power they are already as large as needed, you don't want a single connection to be too big because the grid needs to be table to tolerate any single site dropping out due to a transmission line being cut.
In terms of energy stored, there is of course no limit.

> Decades of ignoring the fact we have a near-0 carbon (most of the carbon is in the concrete of the build probably) energy source that is capable of providing _abundant_ reliable energy. Decades of continuing to burn coal and gas instead.

Obama gave the nuclear industry everything they said they needed, nothing happened(almost, a few got started if you want to be picky) , then nothing happened in four years under Trump.

Currently the nuclear issue is just used as a partisan cudgel by the republicans. They have absolutely zero interest in actually doing anything.

> France has quite reasonably priced electricity.

Around 0.20 euro per kWh, I believe, similar to the EU average. Less than e.g. the UK and more than hydropower-countries to the north.

A solar plant in France should deliver power at 0.01 euro/kWh or less. Nuclear simply cannot compete.

> And, have you even factored in the cost of the large scale battery banks you advocate for into your solar costs?

Yes. It keeps dropping, currently around 75 dollars per kWh capacity, if I remember correctly it was 140 two years ago.


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