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Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

KDE Eco, a KDE project focused on reducing software's environmental impact, has announced its Opt Green campaign to reduce e-waste:

Over the next two years, the "Opt Green" initiative will bring what KDE Eco has been doing for sustainable software directly to end users. A particular target group for the project is those whose consumer behavior is driven by principles related to the environment, and not just price or convenience: the "eco-consumers".

Through online and offline campaigns as well as installation workshops, we will demonstrate the power of Free Software to drive down resource and energy consumption, and keep devices in use for the lifespan of the hardware, not the software.

Our motto: The most environmentally-friendly device is the one you already own.

See the KDE Eco Get Involved page for more information on how to participate.



to post comments

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted May 31, 2024 20:07 UTC (Fri) by flussence (guest, #85566) [Link] (11 responses)

Microsoft heavily marketed Windows 10 as "the last version of Windows". I look forward to helping them make that a reality for as many people around me as possible in the near future.

Myself, I've already been doing this for years. My laptop's on its third battery and I often have to give the package manager a kick because they keep "forgetting" i686. My phone's pushing 14 years old and Firefox stopped working on it 40-50 releases ago, but everything else works well enough that I've no desire to replace it. And of course I'm grateful to KDE for resisting the temptation to ratchet up the minimum Android requirement on the KDE Connect app.

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 1, 2024 6:51 UTC (Sat) by jem (subscriber, #24231) [Link] (7 responses)

>Microsoft heavily marketed Windows 10 as "the last version of Windows".

Did they? I mean, did Microsoft even once make an official announcement that Windows 10 would be the last version? A lot of other people guessed there would never be a Windows 11, but did Microsoft ever say that?

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 1, 2024 7:52 UTC (Sat) by mb (subscriber, #50428) [Link] (4 responses)

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 1, 2024 14:10 UTC (Sat) by zdzichu (subscriber, #17118) [Link] (3 responses)

That's one remark of some random MS employee. Where's “heavy marketing”?

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 1, 2024 15:15 UTC (Sat) by mb (subscriber, #50428) [Link] (2 responses)

Oh, please read the article and google the names.
It has been in all tech media back then. Even tech noobs talked about it.
You will be able to find more information, if you try to.

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 3, 2024 19:52 UTC (Mon) by Heretic_Blacksheep (guest, #169992) [Link] (1 responses)

MS employees don't always speak for the company itself even at official events. Microsoft never officially said 10 was the final version of Windows. I've read and reread, and was around for that particular time. Microsoft itself never said one way or the other. In fact, what Jerry Nixon said was true then and it's still true now. They were working on Windows 10 which was the current and LAST version of Windows *at that time he said it* because there were no public plans yet what the next public marketing version of Windows would look like or be named. And you know what? Look at the OS version of what's publicly known as Windows 11, what's it say? Version 10.1. They're *still* working on Windows v10 and Windows is still being pushed as a service.

The context of Ignite is marketing. They are hyping/cheerleading the most current (not potential future versions! - that doesn't make any money) of Windows and their currently public SDKs is what Ignite is for. Jerry Nixon's purpose was to encourage corporations to move off Windows 7 after the utter failure of Windows 8 as a product. Traditionally, MS's largest customers skip one or more versions of Windows before planning fleet migrations. Microsoft wanted people moving to 10 ASAP. The way you do that is to insinuate (without lying) the most currently released product is the last version for an unspecified amount of time. The media and the computing public fell for the idea Windows 10 is the *final* version (which Nixon didn't say!) hook, line, and sinker to the point where it's now an annoying meme that says more about the public's gullibility than anything else.

Software versioning is very arbitrary, and the product names in commercial software are for pushing products and revenue. They don't reflect what's under the hood. That quote from Tron is very apt: "This year we put a 12 on the box." We all fell for a marketing campaign.

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 6, 2024 1:19 UTC (Thu) by NYKevin (subscriber, #129325) [Link]

If you want an official statement, you can find one in the article linked upthread:

> "Recent comments at Ignite about Windows 10 are reflective of the way Windows will be delivered as a service bringing new innovations and updates in an ongoing manner, with continuous value for our consumer and business customers," says a Microsoft spokesperson in a statement to The Verge. "We aren’t speaking to future branding at this time, but customers can be confident Windows 10 will remain up-to-date and power a variety of devices from PCs to phones to Surface Hub to HoloLens and Xbox. We look forward to a long future of Windows innovations."

No, they did not promise that Windows 11 would never happen ("We aren't speaking to future branding at this time"), but that's a totally different question from whether Windows 10 would remain supported indefinitely. Microsoft's statement outright says that Windows 10 "will remain up-to-date." That is a specific promise, and while it was probably unwise of Microsoft to make such an open-ended statement, that's their problem.

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 1, 2024 7:53 UTC (Sat) by aviallon (subscriber, #157205) [Link] (1 responses)

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 2, 2024 13:51 UTC (Sun) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link]

Looks like a typical scientist rapes reporter article to me.

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 2, 2024 6:52 UTC (Sun) by tzafrir (subscriber, #11501) [Link] (2 responses)

Maintaining a software system for 10 years is a major effort. Linux OSes of 2015 are mostly not really maintained.

But it's not really important if a Fedora or Ubuntu system of 2015 runs on your system. What really matters is if there is a maintained Fedora or Ubuntu system that runs on your laptop.

So if there is Windows 11, or a future version Windows 12 or even Windows 9 (because this is yet an unused version number) that runs with the hardware - it's OK. And if Windows 10 is still supported but bumped the hardware requirements, it may be a problem.

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 6, 2024 7:18 UTC (Thu) by taladar (subscriber, #68407) [Link] (1 responses)

Windows 9 was specifically unused to avoid issues with software checking for Windows 9* in version strings to check for Windows 95 and 98

Opt Green: KDE Eco's New Sustainable Software Project

Posted Jun 7, 2024 14:06 UTC (Fri) by mathstuf (subscriber, #69389) [Link]

Note that Microsoft also seems to have a form of triskaidekaphobia in that, AFAIK, they've never released software with major version number "13". Maybe that's the end of the road unless they change back to year-based versions after "12" to avoid having to explain why "14" is its followup?

I applaud this, but...

Posted May 31, 2024 22:04 UTC (Fri) by b7j0c (guest, #27559) [Link] (1 responses)

...the most bloated software you will run will not be from your installed OS, but javascript pulled down from sites you visit

I applaud this, but...

Posted Jun 14, 2024 9:24 UTC (Fri) by mrugiero (guest, #153040) [Link]

That is true, but even then there can be mitigations your system can apply if it knows you're running in older hardware (for some definition of older). For example, a browser for older hardware will assume less available RAM, so the tradeoff memory vs CPU that leads to using several stages of JIT compilation when memory abounds may be more biased toward either baseline or interpreter only, or something in between (e.g. a threaded/context threading interpreter with a single instance for opcodes).
Also, considering many local applications are now just a browser running a web app, one mitigation may be not running a browser with a web app when you don't mean to. Some of the popular ones have alternatives (some better, some worse), e.g. for Discord there are a few native apps that are more sympathetic to hardware (although the one that worked the best for me is proprietary, it's not like the original is free software either).

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 1, 2024 18:50 UTC (Sat) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (67 responses)

Yes I'm all for eco, but if the cost of an upgrade will pay for itself in short order in energy savings, you can't say "the greenest product is the one already in your pocket".

We were forced to upgrade our car recently thanks to the ULEZ - meant to get rid of "polluting vehicles". It was a newish, well maintained, low mileage diesel that was incredibly economical to run. How can it be "eco" to get rid of it, and replace it with a brand new car which (as far as I can tell) actually has worse fuel consumption? The main reason the new car is cheaper to run is the tax penalty on diesel ... (and fossil fuels, it's a hybrid).

There's far too much mis-informed cheer-leading out there, and so many people aren't interested in actually doing the right thing, they're being overly simplistic and want to "look good".

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 1, 2024 20:54 UTC (Sat) by cpitrat (subscriber, #116459) [Link] (23 responses)

Of course saying "you have to throw away your car because it pollutes too much" is a stupid reasoning. In this instance as in many others, ecology is just an opportunity to force something onto people "for a good cause". In this case boosting sales of new cars.

For computers (including smartphones and other computing/connected devices), as for cars, production is a large portion of the footprint. The rationale here is exactly the opposite of what you describe: reduce your footprint by NOT changing your device thanks to less bloated/more older hardware compatible software. This makes much more sense than ULEZ.

Whether this can actually move the needle significantly and whether KDE's contribution is important is another question (and I don't have the answer). My personal laptop is a 15 years old notebook running i3 and it mostly works but what became painful is browsing the Internet. I fear that's the big problem here. I also equipped my two children with old second hand laptops running xfce and they can do many interesting things but for them too, Internet is a slow experience (but I was quite hardcore in the privoxy config so they have a very limited access anyway).

This situation makes me sad. We've managed to build an ecosystem that requires gigabytes if RAM and the most recent CPUs to display a bunch if text and a couple of pictures (and of course, execute dozens of MiB of JavaScript that you'd prefer would not exist)

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 1, 2024 22:32 UTC (Sat) by linuxrocks123 (subscriber, #34648) [Link] (1 responses)

I have a desktop that's at least 10 years old, and browsing the Internet on it isn't painful at all. Maybe check to see if you're swap thrashing. If you are, perhaps give Pale Moon a try. Its RAM requirements tend to be lower than the mainstream browsers.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 9:40 UTC (Fri) by mrugiero (guest, #153040) [Link]

Sometimes it's about specs. If you have a 10 years old system that was top of the line (even mid-range might do the trick) back then you'll be fine today. If you have a more average/budget/third world setup, you may experience the bloat more strongly.
It also may have to do with expectations (for some people waiting a minute is an opportunity to go fetch water and for other an insult) or what specifically you browse. Social networks, for example, are big offenders. In my case the worst ones tends to be newspapers that won't let you see anything without tons of JS. One in particular would fire up the fans of my then-new-high-end laptop. It's cooler to run Unity than it is to read the news, not exaggerating. Some people choose to or are mandated to use heavy sites for work as well. For example, a friend of mine appreciates the functionality of Notion, while at my job it's the official documentation platform, and at a previous job it used to be Jira. I certainly don't appreciate the bloat/functionality ratio of Jira. Notion is heavy, but I haven't seen anything as flexible before, so I guess it's not _pointless_ JS, though I don't really use it as more than a markdown platform in practice.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 1, 2024 22:50 UTC (Sat) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (20 responses)

ULEZ is a London thing. It is mainly about reducing NOx and diesel particulates. The point of it is that Londoners should be able to breathe clean(ish) air.

This is unlike concerns about global warming where it does not matter where the greenhouse-gases are produced.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 1, 2024 23:18 UTC (Sat) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (10 responses)

Except - one - it's not (just) a London thing, it's quite common in other towns too, now, and - two - it doesn't even achieve what it sets out to do very efficiently at all.

When it was originally introduced, there were a lot of "dirty" cars, in a small area, which was (still is) heavily congested, and congestion makes the problem much worse. Ten years later they expanded it, when the number of "dirty cars" was much lower as a starting point, and the areas are much less congested so a properly maintained car is much cleaner anyway.

And then we have the mayor accusing people of being anti-Science when they turn round and say the results of the initial zone are useless for predicting how effective the expansion will be! Engines are at their polluting worst when the vehicle is stationary and the engine is idling. I used to be a delivery driver in London for a while, and a considerable chunk of my working day was spent being the ONLY vehicle waiting at a red light! Fix *that* problem, and the resulting improved efficiency of delivery vehicles at 4 or 5am would probably have a far bigger knock-on effect than getting rid of those few "polluting" vehicles left.

The one thing they DID do which made sense, was to change the emission test rules, re-introducing the old rule that when you rev the engine, it mustn't smoke. That always used to be an MOT fail, then they changed it so it was just the "emissions measuring box" (and the vehicle could spew all the smoke it liked, so long as the box didn't notice it), and now thank heaven emitting smoke is an MOT fail again.

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 1, 2024 23:40 UTC (Sat) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (9 responses)

ULEZ(Ultra Low Emission Zone) is London specifically. Other cities also have clean air rules, but none as stringent as London(as far as I am aware).

The issue they are trying to fix is the concentration. So delivery drivers at 4am are not actually much of a problem, the gases will have time to disperse.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 7:28 UTC (Sun) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (7 responses)

But by making those deliveries take much longer ...

(a) those vans will still be there in rush hour, and

(b) BECAUSE those vans are there, rush hour will start earlier and last longer.

One of the best ways to reduce pollution, is to keep traffic moving. By keeping the 4am traffic moving, you can get rid of it quicker and the later traffic will keep moving longer. Unfortunately, so much logic is along the lines of "the obvious way to improve matters is to reduce the speed limit from 30 to 20, so traffic stuck doing 0 won't be able pollute as much". Seriously, I've seen that argument in a newspaper. Doesn't say much for either the writer, or the editor who thought it was worth publishing!

Much as people hate it, strict enforcement of box junctions would also help matters. Traffic flow (or lack of it) is one of the biggest problems.

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 10:33 UTC (Sun) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

Not true. You're being ridiculous. Don't make up random "facts" just because you were personally inconvenienced.

I'll stop here. It has very little to do with KDE anyway.

> Doesn't say much for either the writer, or the editor who thought it was worth publishing!

Pot, kettle.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 15:49 UTC (Sun) by kleptog (subscriber, #1183) [Link] (5 responses)

There's a reason why traffic light intersections in the Netherlands are some of the most expensive in the world. Because they do everything: networking with other intersections to coordinate timings, changing the timings based on actual traffic flow, switching to flashing orange when traffic is low (my favourite), cameras to detect cyclists and pedestrians before they actually reach the intersection, countdown timers so you know how long you have to wait, full redundancy, support for separate tram, pedestrian & cyclist lights, all the smarts. You can have them too. They make a big difference in air quality.

Except they're apparently around €1 million per intersection, so most countries just go for simple timed lights. Worth every penny though in my opinion.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 16:06 UTC (Sun) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (2 responses)

Interesting, do you have a link for that?

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 17:31 UTC (Sun) by rschroev (subscriber, #4164) [Link] (1 responses)

This video talks about some aspects of it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knbVWXzL4-4

It doesn't go into things like the cost or the engineering involved, though.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 21:14 UTC (Sun) by kleptog (subscriber, #1183) [Link]

Somehow I guessed the maker of that video before opening it. He does great videos on traffic in the Netherlands.

He does touch on several important aspects. The traffic lights themselves are more complex and so more expensive, but that's not where the money goes. Just the planning of an intersection can cost quite a bit. It's much more than laying some asphalt, drawing some lines and calling it a day. Roads need foundations too (yay subsiding ground and rising water levels), there's dividers and colours, trams and drainage are also a consideration. Also, urban planning to remove through traffic from city centres is super important.

The reason why it works so well now is because the Netherlands started prioritising cyclists in the 70's. Since roads/intersections generally need major maintenance every 20 years or so, roads/intersections were simply upgraded when the maintainance period came round. So now many roads have already been through two upgrade cycles since then. These 3rd generation smart lights have been around for nearly 20 years which means nearly all intersections have them now.

All the cities going "oh, it's too expensive" are short sighted. Sure, it costs a bit more now and the first 10 years you won't see much benefit. But after 20 years the magic adds up and everything just starts going much smoother. It's not going to get any cheaper by waiting.

And yes, traffic light debugger is a real job :)

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 19:26 UTC (Sun) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link]

> Except they're apparently around €1 million per intersection, so most countries just go for simple timed lights. Worth every penny though in my opinion.

My feelings eggsackerly !!!

Even if they just switched off at night (flashing orange) when traffic is low, that would save so much in wasted fuel and unnecessary pollution.

And they don't even need to be at every junction - there's plenty of places in London where there's more than enough traffic at silly-o-clock to warrant them being on 24/7.

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 4, 2024 10:33 UTC (Tue) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link]

Light that detect cyclists.... cry.

Here in the Celtic Isles our lights are typically modulated by pressure sensors embedded in the road, to lengthen or shorten green cycles according to whether there are cars going through a car or not and whether there are cars waiting at red on other sides. These typically sensors need at least 150 kg to trigger, according to a technician I spoke to a while ago, while waiting at lights (this was Ireland, DCC).

This is _infuriating_ if you're on a bicycle. And it means I end up ignoring red and just using common sense if there's no car behind me.

According to that technician, they can use sensors that trigger at a much lower pressure and detect cyclists, but they generally never use them.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 6:30 UTC (Mon) by LtWorf (subscriber, #124958) [Link]

Sweden municipalities have the same. It's all about keeping the poor (often brown) people with older cars hidden away from the city centre.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 8:05 UTC (Sun) by cpitrat (subscriber, #116459) [Link] (8 responses)

> It is mainly about reducing NOx and diesel particulates.

I'm not sure about London's one but in France instead of banning vehicles based on real emissions they are banned based on year of manufacturing. So some old low emission vehicles are banned whereas more recent SUVs with twice the emissions are allowed.

And VW proved how much you can trust manufacturers about their own figures for emissions.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 8:25 UTC (Sun) by mb (subscriber, #50428) [Link]

>So some old low emission vehicles are banned whereas more recent SUVs with twice the emissions are allowed.

"emissions allowed today" is orders of magnitude less than what old vehicles actually emitted decades ago.

Look at the numbers. The particulate and NOx numbers are constantly going down since decades.

Here's one example from Germany, but other cities' data look similar:
https://www.stadtklima-stuttgart.de/index.php?luft_messda...

On average, the replacement of old vehicles and industries with newer technologies clearly show a big improvement.

This has nothing to do with KDE, though :)

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 9:24 UTC (Sun) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (6 responses)

> I'm not sure about London's one but in France instead of banning vehicles based on real emissions they are banned based on year of manufacturing.

London's is basically the same thing. Diesels must meet Euro-6 compliance, so basically 2015 on (our car was 64-plate - 2nd half 2014 ...). If you've got Ad-blue you're okay. Petrols are Euro-5, basically 2004.

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 16, 2024 23:03 UTC (Sun) by sammythesnake (guest, #17693) [Link] (5 responses)

Sadly, based on my experience making deliveries in a variety of vans, the Euro 6 engines universally suck to drive compared to their Euro 5 predecessors, and they don't even get better mpg... :-(

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 16, 2024 23:20 UTC (Sun) by gioele (subscriber, #61675) [Link] (4 responses)

> the Euro 6 engines universally suck to drive compared to their Euro 5 predecessors, and they don't even get better mpg... :-(

The Euro 0...6 standards are _emission_ standards: they regulate how much a car is allowed to pollute, not how much it will consume. Pollution and consumption are strongly connected, but are not the same thing.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 17, 2024 7:59 UTC (Mon) by atnot (subscriber, #124910) [Link]

Specifically mostly PM and NOx emissions. If you haven't heard the term "acid rain" in a decade, this is why. Or even smog in most cities, outside of the growing numbers caused by wildfires.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Dec 20, 2024 23:41 UTC (Fri) by sammythesnake (guest, #17693) [Link] (2 responses)

True, but they're also *newer* engines, and that's meant better efficiency almost every person of the development cycle so far, so I get the impression that the euro 6 emissions requirements might be deleterious to the efficiency of the engines.

Remember the "diesel gate" kerfuffle? The amount of effort that went into fooling the tests suggests that *some* unpalatable compromise was being avoided, and one that could be avoided without removing the whole AdBlue mechanism altogether - efficiency and power (which are related anyway) would be the obvious guesses. I'd be curious to see some careful measurements of engines before vs. after the recall to see what changed other than emissions. I'd wager a shiny penny that they lost a handful of ponies...

I did recently have a conversation with my garage, though, as they're fighting with the exhaust treatment stuff on my euro5 engine that the euro 6 engines are more *reliable* in their experience. I'm also curious about what's behind that...

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Dec 21, 2024 19:20 UTC (Sat) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link]

My engine was affected by the recall; like most engines in its family, it gets a little bit over its rated power, and is a little more efficient than promised when on the drive cycle, but the recall letter warned me that, while I would still meet the power and efficiency levels Škoda promised when I bought it, I would lose both power and efficiency compared to pre-recall.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Dec 22, 2024 7:37 UTC (Sun) by joib (subscriber, #8541) [Link]

As the sibling comment says, it's about NOx formation. Higher combustion temperature leads to higher efficiency, but higher temperature also leads to increased NOx. Hence the latest generation diesels tend to have worse BSFC than the previous generation, in order to meet the emissions regulations.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 0:45 UTC (Sun) by flussence (guest, #85566) [Link]

The whole point of these disincentives on private vehicle use in population centres is to disincentivise private vehicle use in population centres. Obviously it's not going to be eco-friendly when some people react with malicious compliance that makes everything worse for everyone.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 14:06 UTC (Sun) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (39 responses)

> There's far too much mis-informed cheer-leading out there, and so many people aren't interested in actually doing the right thing, they're being overly simplistic and want to "look good".

It's very easy to see that 99% of time hystery about eco-friendliness is just about profits because so very few initiatives promote standartization.

Make phones and laptops use standard, replaceable, battery and instantly get more enviromental impact than most other eco-initiatives combined.

Replace highways with trains, where feasible, and get more impact than all these replacements of diesel with electric cars.

And so on.

There are some initiatives that work in that direction (e.g. EU making even Apple use USB-C is a good example), but so very few and with so little hype around them it's not even funny.

The wast majority of eco-initiatives are producing things that increases impact of human civilization on ecology, not reduces it!

The whole thing was a scam to impose heavy tax on “developing” nations, but even after it become obvious it wouldn't happen it still perpetuates.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 15:48 UTC (Sun) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (38 responses)

> The whole thing was a scam

The scam is in the other direction, the incumbents are fighting tooth and nail to stop the inevitable.

The country that is furthest along with converting to electric cars does not have its own car industry.

> to impose heavy tax on “developing” nations, but even after it become obvious it wouldn't happen it still perpetuates.

It's happening, and picking up speed.

https://cleantechnica.com/2024/05/13/ethiopia-shows-us-ju...

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 17:03 UTC (Sun) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (37 responses)

> The scam is in the other direction, the incumbents are fighting tooth and nail to stop the inevitable.

We have different “inevitables”, I suspect.

If I'm right then there are two possible “inevitable” futures (first becoming less and less likely while second becoming more and more “inevitable”):

  1. The one that EU envisioned is where EU would continue to heavily subsidize “green energy” and EV, while the whole world would pay for these subsidies in a form of some kind of tax.
  2. And then there are another one that EU would most likely get after it would exhaust it's ability to pay for stupidity that is masquerading as an “eco-friendly”, “sustainable” development would be a civilization collapse: first the industry would collapse, then states would start ignoring EU directives, then EU would, most likely, turn into CIS (something that is formally still exists, but which doesn't impact anything outside of their own bureaucracy) or may be even just be formally dissolved.

And you claim that there's third “inevitability” where EV vehicles and “green energy” may actually compete with normal cars and “obsolete” power plants (nukes, thermal, etc) without subsidies, forced electricity purchases, areas closed to normal cars and other such shenanigans.

That future I'm highly sceptical about. I'm not even sure what suggests that such future may even theoretically exist, nothing shows us that EVs or “green energy” may exist outside of a few, very niche, areas (like, e.g., electric forklifts or arctic stations not connecte to power grid), except when someone skews the market in their favor and keeps spending money to keep it in that unnatural shape.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 18:45 UTC (Sun) by tuna (guest, #44480) [Link] (9 responses)

WTF?

Solar is the cheapest form of electricity (unless you live near the poles) and EVs are cheaper than ICE cars. People with a sunk cost fallacy will cling to old business models and equipment, but forward looking people have already moved on.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 19:30 UTC (Sun) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (8 responses)

I've heard of electric cars, that if you are a low(ish) mileage guy, and you live in Southern Europe (Spain was the example), the solar panels on the car would keep it topped up. Such that in normal use (15K km), you would probably never need to charge it except on long journeys.

It was probably just a prototype at the moment, but it came over as real and soon to be ready for prime time ...

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 20:10 UTC (Sun) by tuna (guest, #44480) [Link]

Putting solar panels on cars is pretty inefficient. Put them over the parking places instead.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 6:35 UTC (Mon) by LtWorf (subscriber, #124958) [Link] (6 responses)

I think that only works if you live somewhere that is completely flat (which no place in southern europe is) and never has bad weather (which can happen for weeks at a time, despite what tourists imagine), and not in winter (which does exist in sothern europe).

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 8:49 UTC (Mon) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (5 responses)

You've missed two points ... I did say the car wasn't used heavily (15K km is quite low nowadays). And when you're talking about sunlight, the seasons are irrelevant. What matters is latitude ...

Back of a fag-packet maths ... my PHEV has a range of 30 miles and takes 5hrs to charge (at 13A that's roughly 3KW). So 6 x 250W panels will do a full recharge a day. I think you'd get that if you put the panels on roof, bonnet, and boot ...

And 365x30m is my 10K m/year ...

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 20:35 UTC (Mon) by mathstuf (subscriber, #69389) [Link] (4 responses)

> my PHEV has a range of 30 miles and takes 5hrs to charge (at 13A that's roughly 3KW). So 6 x 250W panels will do a full recharge a day. I think you'd get that if you put the panels on roof, bonnet, and boot ...

I can only imagine the efficiency hits from car washes, road debris (stones kicked up, improperly covered dump trucks, etc.), and snow clearing. Folks are already merely OK at taking care of clearcoat-finishes, never mind something where cleanliness actually affects performance.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 21:35 UTC (Mon) by LtWorf (subscriber, #124958) [Link] (3 responses)

Let's not forget that in the summer you want to park in the shade to avoid getting baked when you enter the car. But if you do that the car won't be going anywhere.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 22:58 UTC (Mon) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (2 responses)

The point is, though, the maths says if all your ducks line up, it works for your average vehicle! Given that your average vehicle (the mean) actually drives a lot further than your typical vehicle (the median), that's two thirds of all vehicles potentially not needing to be refuelled.

If the potential is there today, the probability is there tomorrow.

As for parking in the shade, it'll still charge (just not so well). Park in the sun and a lot of the heat won't happen because it'll be turned into electric instead. And do what I do - leave the sun roof slightly open. It dumps a lot of heat :-)

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 4, 2024 1:52 UTC (Tue) by mathstuf (subscriber, #69389) [Link]

> leave the sun roof slightly open. It dumps a lot of heat :-)

Though, being on the English Isles, I'd expect rain to be a constant threat to turn that into a "rain roof" (it's a threat here too as northeast US weather can be quite…indecisive). Not to mention pollen season. There are guards for side windows to allow for a slight opening while protecting from everything short of actual-horizontal rain. It even allows for a cross-breeze.

Anyways, cars are already growing gadgets at an alarming rate. Even more things to go wrong doesn't sound great to me. With all the sensors around cars these days, even a fender bender can result in a "total it" conclusion :( . With extension to parts that are inert metal even in Teslas being "safety critical", what's to be done with comprehensive insurance coverage premiums if a bird strike can result in thousands of dollars of repairs and a potential "total it" result?

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 4, 2024 7:51 UTC (Tue) by LtWorf (subscriber, #124958) [Link]

Consider that:

1. garages and underground parking exists
2. city streets, especially where narrow (typical in southern europe) get sunlight only 4 hours a day at most
3. I think you're considering the energy created by optimally oriented solar panels. Not badly oriented ones that sit in the shade for hours
4. As the owner of a 5 years old hybrid vehicle. At this point the batteries are essentially dead weight that I pay more fuel to move around for absolutely no advantage.

I take it you've never spent a summer in southern europe. But as a british with no experience you feel nonetheless compelled to teach the sicilian how it's not a problem to park in the sun in the summer. I guess you can tolerate 70° and up better than me!

Also overheated batteries can explode.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 19:05 UTC (Sun) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (9 responses)

Ever since they were invented, electric motors have been superior to combustion engines in all aspects. They are cheaper, lighter, more powerful, more reliable, less noisy, more efficient, needs less cooling, gives full torque immediately.

The only reason you ever want to use a combustion engine is when you can't get enough electric power cheaply enough.

Historically cars have used them because batteries used to be heavy and expensive.

As soon as light enough and cheap enough batteries were invented it became inevitable that cars will eventually become electric. The incumbents may manage to delay this for a while yet, but it will happen.

Interestingly, because electric motors are so superior, the largest mining trucks have used them since long before global warming became a concern, they typically have one or more diesel engines running generators that then power the electric motors. This is much less hassle than trying to design a combustion engine plus gearbox large enough to turn the wheels.

Regarding green energy, solar is now the cheapest energy on the planet. Texas in particular is building the most in the US. Which is funny because the governor tried to outlaw it :)

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 22:49 UTC (Sun) by intelfx (subscriber, #130118) [Link] (7 responses)

Without commenting on the merits of the rest of your post...

> Interestingly, because electric motors are so superior, the largest mining trucks have used them since long before global warming became a concern, they typically have one or more diesel engines running generators that then power the electric motors. This is much less hassle than trying to design a combustion engine plus gearbox large enough to turn the wheels.

I'm afraid that's not because "electric models are so superior". That's simply because electric _braking_ is superior (it is much easier to cool a bunch of resistors than it is to cool the disc brakes, and a mining truck operating in a quarry uses brakes extensively).

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 2, 2024 23:38 UTC (Sun) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

The largest vehicles I've personally seen up close are dump-trucks up to maybe 40T load, small enough to use diesel.

The braking was done by the "retarder" basically making the piston compress the air without injecting fuel and opening the valves to let it early so you did not get the spring effect.

The disc-brakes were still there, but they were only for getting from maybe walking pace to full stop when you park the vehicle. Anything more and they would burn out.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 9:10 UTC (Mon) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (5 responses)

Since you, unlike your opponents, seems to think, I'll point out the obvious: problem with “green energy” and EV are not with electric motors or solar panels, per se.

Electric motors are suprior, if you look on even larger creations, ships, you would find them there. They are cheaper, they don't need transmission, etc.

Solar panels and wind turbines are less efficient than other ways to make electricity, but price of electricity they make is not the Achilles heel of the whole thing, no.

The whole thing becomes a scam when you count for the need to have an accumulator in your system.

Older types of batteries (like NiFe batteries, e.g.) are heavy and don't hold as much charge, but they last… they don't hold enouh energy to make pure EV vehicles or solar/wind plants viable! Yet they can be used to combine diesel with electric motor.

But all these grandiose EU plans? They rely on breakthrough in battery chemistry to be viable. That haven't happened and would probably not happen during our life (please don't send me articles which promise breakthrough in accumulators, I saw them since I was little boy, it's mostly scientist rapes reporter articles, tell me when you would have something to sell me).

Or, alternatively, you can make someone else make them for you and give them for you for free. Make Chineese, Bolivian and so on people suffer and swindle the goods from them for free, somehow. Then the whole thing may work, too.

That even works on micro-level: solar panels on a roof on south countries are viable… as long as you don't cut connection from grid and someone else pays for intermittency of your power generation. Try to “cut the cord”, add battery to the mix… and prices skyrocket.

The only thing that may readily compensate damage that solar and wind power do to the power grind is hydro. Which makes Norway unique place in the world where it may actually work, ironically enough.

But EV are not viable even in Norway, I wonder what it plans to do after EU collapse.

As I have said: the whole plan was to play “ecology, ecology, save the planet” and make “Global South” pay for the whole excercise.

But “Global South” (why the heck it's called “Global South”, BTW? the leader of that group, Russia, is one of the northern countries in the world, for crying out loud!), increasingly, doesn't want to play that game — and it does't look like “West” (again: why is it “West” if few of most important countries in the group, South Korea and Japan are on the far east?) have the military means to make them play that game by force.

But whether EU would be able to make others pay for they “ego-friendly” madness or not… this whole crazyness increases human impact upon planet, it doesn't reduce it! That was my point.

Off-topic

Posted Jun 3, 2024 13:04 UTC (Mon) by corbet (editor, #1) [Link] (1 responses)

So this has been off-topic for a while, and the snide comment at the top is not particularly respectful. This is turning into exactly the sort of back-and-forth that we discussed last week. Please, stop this here, and try not to do this again?

Off-topic

Posted Jun 3, 2024 16:00 UTC (Mon) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

Apologies, did not notice this before I replied.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 15:54 UTC (Mon) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (2 responses)

> please don't send me articles which promise breakthrough in accumulators

No breakthrough needed, they are already good enough for many applications such as cars and overnight grid-storage. There are still many applications they can't do, yet, e.g. seasonal grid-storage and large airplanes. But for the applications they *can* do they are much cheaper and
will relegate other technologies to small niches.

It has been obvious for a long time that this is what would happen, but a sceptic could always dismiss it by saying "speculative" and also dismiss the batteries and solar panels installed by California by saying they were politically motivated.

However the politics in Texas is in the other direction, and what is new this year is that companies in Texas are installing both more solar panels and more batteries than California is.

This really should be enough to convince every reasonable person.

> But EV are not viable even in Norway,

Yes they are. They have proven themselves already and are very popular.

Some of the more extreme environmentalists are moving the goalposts and saying that people should not have a car at all, but cycle or take the bus, but they can be safely ignored. That's not going to happen.

> Make Chineese, Bolivian and so on people suffer and swindle the goods from them for free, somehow.

China is not being swindled, whatever they are doing it is on purpose.

> and make “Global South” pay

This is going to be extremely beneficial for most of the Global South, that actually are in the south, they can stop importing expensive fuel for their cars.
And for countries with arid land and a coastline, desalination is going to be cheap enough to use for agriculture.

> the leader of that group, Russia, is one of the northern countries in the world,

That's indeed correct, this is not good for Russia's relative standing in particular, but most of the rest of world will benefit enormously.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 10:01 UTC (Fri) by mrugiero (guest, #153040) [Link] (1 responses)

> This is going to be extremely beneficial for most of the Global South, that actually are in the south, they can stop importing expensive fuel for their cars.

The global south would need more than electric cars to be anywhere near benefited by this. I live in one of those countries.
We import fossil fuels for the energy grid, in part because of self-inflicted problems, in part because nuclear treaties put a cap on Uranium purity unless you are one of the few countries that actually used it for weapons, which means our plants are more expensive to run and less efficient. We also use gas for heating because our electricity production is no match to just burning gas. Last but not least, you need wealth to buy new vehicles, and we lack that.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 12:10 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

> We import fossil fuels for the energy grid.

The price of solar plus batteries is so low that you will save money running the grid off that.

I can't think of a possible country where this wouldn't be true, countries with land in the far north, US, Canada, Norway, Russia are all oil-exporters.
Also except for Russia not considered part of the Global South.

Let's see, Greenland? No apparently they export oil. Sweden, Finland? Still not Global South, and they run their grids mostly on renewables and nuclear.

Argentina? Even in Ushuaia solar is still feasible, but I recall it being rather windy, so wind-power might very well be the best option.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 9:15 UTC (Mon) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link]

> Interestingly, because electric motors are so superior, the largest mining trucks have used them since long before global warming became a concern, they typically have one or more diesel engines running generators that then power the electric motors. This is much less hassle than trying to design a combustion engine plus gearbox large enough to turn the wheels.

And this technology is pre-war. I used to read a lot of autobiographies, and it was clear that (war)ships with this technology - be it diesel or fuel-oil-powered gas turbine, were just so much more responsive, and if required could get under way in minutes rather than hours.

I've thought right from the early days of electric cars that they should replace piston engines with small gas turbines, that would burn almost anything, and use that to drive electric motors in the wheels. Households could use waste cooking oil almost straight into the car engine :-)

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 10:01 UTC (Fri) by mrugiero (guest, #153040) [Link] (16 responses)

FWIW, nuclear is and will remain the greenest energy source. The fact some environmentalists don't like it has more to do with panics about accidents and waste management (I guess it's worse to put it in specific restriction zones than it is to simply blow it to the air and water as most other sources, heh).
Re: EVs, just use trains and walk for short distances. EVs really solve self-imposed problems for people who is either too lazy, too hasty or live in poorly designed cities. That said, it _may_ be better that any _new_ vehicles are electric, but forcing the change on working ones only makes things worse for things already mentioned.
Re: subsidies: no idea about Europe, but I live in a country that heavily subsidizes fossil fuels (they do subsidize electricity too, I don't happen to know which one is more subsidized).

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 11:41 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (15 responses)

> FWIW, nuclear is and will remain the greenest energy source

This is not true, but also it is not the right metric.

The metric you want is cost per kWh. By that metric solar is the clear winner.

> The fact some environmentalists don't like [nuclear]

You know who *really* don't like nuclear? Try asking an insurance-company how much it would cost to insure your nice new nuclear power plant.

Not a single plant would be built, ever, if the owners had to buy insurance.

Fortunately for them, many governments, including the US, are actually willing to waive the insurance-requirements and assume the risk themselves.

Unfortunately, even with that massive subsidy the nuclear plants are still way more expensive than solar.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 11:59 UTC (Fri) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link] (12 responses)

Solar is amazing, and should be a big part of future energy production. However, it's not perfect either. It is land-intensive. It's also not reliable - some parts of the world worse than others. There is daily variation, and there is seasonal variation - especially in higher latitudes.

We will need a reliable energy source to provide a base capacity for our grids, to complement solar and other renewables (wind, etc.). If you are serious about being green, your answer can not be "use gas forever".

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 12:59 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link] (11 responses)

> If you are serious about being green, your answer can not be "use gas forever".

That is indeed true, now. We have wasted too much time, it would have been feasible it we had acted as reasonably as soon as the science was clear, 40 years ago.

Given your previous comments, I assume you suggesting nuclear as base-load. Apologies if I'm wrong.

Unfortunately, nuclear is a very bad complement to renewables. The main issue that they are expensive, second is that current designs are very bad at ramping up and down which is what you need to compensate for variation in renewables. They simply are not capable of changing their power output daily, much less multiple times per day.

It is theoretically possible to build reactors which can vary their output frequently, but nothing that has worked has been built yet. Various promising designs have been built, e.g. molten salt reactors and pebble bed reactors, but as far as I can tell nothing is ready for commercial operation.

Reactors in US hangar-ships and subs are better, though still not good enough, they are even more expensive per kWh and they operate on weapons-grade fuel which adds considerably to security requirements.

Fortunately it looks like batteries are going to get good enough to handle it all, they are already good enough and cheap enough to even out the solar day to day cycle and I expect they will eventually be good enough to handle long-term seasonal storage.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 14:00 UTC (Fri) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link] (10 responses)

We have indeed wasted far too much time - many decades now, given I've been discussing climate change with people since the 90s. And a recurring theme I get from "greens" is they propose some _future_, *unproven* technology as being the reason for not building out nuclear _now_. From "carbon capture" to (now) mass battery storage, these are _unproven_ technologies at scale. We have pilots, but we have _0_ countries where this technology is proven to be able to store sufficient energy from renewables to be able to provide base-load capacity to grids.

Nuclear is proven. We have countries with energy surpluses, cause they built-out nuclear decades ago, instead of going with this "But but <handwave about some latest great hope technology that, at best, has PoCs but no proven at scale deployment> means we can don't nuclear!". Along with "But nuclear would take a decade to build!".

And what is the end-result. The end-result is that I have been listening to this for _decades_ now. Decades of ignoring the fact we have a near-0 carbon (most of the carbon is in the concrete of the build probably) energy source that is capable of providing _abundant_ reliable energy. Decades of continuing to burn coal and gas instead.

The "Nuclear is expensive" argument is flawed in 2 ways:

1. It is typically based, in whole or part, on the US market. Except the US market appears to be incredibly dysfunctional and inefficient, for whatever reason. The US is an _outlier_ on cost. If you instead look at France or China - whose energy companies are the ones most of the rest of the world would bring in to build and manage new nuclear - the cost is quite competitive.| France has quite reasonably priced electricity.

2. Second flaw is comparing nuclear energy to cheap renewables. Yes, solar is cheap. But the whole reason to look at nuclear is that solar (and other renewables) are unreliable and hence _require_ some other energy source for base-load generation. You can not compare the two. Cheap solar power is no good at night.

And, have you even factored in the cost of the large scale battery banks you advocate for into your solar costs?

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 14:18 UTC (Fri) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (2 responses)

And I'll simply throw in the crazy dysfunctional (anti)incentives for solar in the UK.

I think, on all three of my solar arrays, I get paid for feeding in to the system roughly 1/3rd what I get paid for taking out. Which encourages me to provide my own (inefficient) batteries etc to try and "save" energy. DAFT!

What should happen (and happens accidentally on my home array) is I have an old-fashioned electricity meter that runs backwards when my panels are generating a surplus. So I actually only pay for my net consumption.

The other thing in the UK (and I'm sure other countries could build them) is we have one or two hydroelectric "batteries" where excess base load at night is used to pump water up a mountain, and then it's released at times of peak demand. Given that those times used to be commercial advertisement breaks when everybody put the kettle on, and those days are long past, I'm sure they would go a long way to reducing our need for gas or whatever to iron out fluctuations in wind and solar.

(I think they are 500MW stations, and can go from 0 to full power in 30 seconds ...)

Given a decent weather forecast we can predict renewable generation. We can predict electric demand. Given sufficient notice, there's no reason why nuclear can't be ramped up and down even over a short time period. And then we've got one or two of these huge batteries to allow for differences between forecast and reality.

(Of course, the other thing to do is switch the domestic gas network to hydrogen (or in the interim a hydrogen/methane mix), and store surplus generation as hydrogen in the existing gas storage network!)

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 17:50 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

> I think, on all three of my solar arrays, I get paid for feeding in to the system roughly 1/3rd what I get paid for taking out. Which encourages me to provide my own (inefficient) batteries etc to try and "save" energy. DAFT!

Sounds reasonable, or even generous depending on your local neighbourhood. If your neighbour is using the power you create, that's reasonably efficient. But if it has to go back out through the nearest transformer most of it will be lost...

> Given sufficient notice, there's no reason why nuclear can't be ramped up and down even over a short time period.

No, current nuclear plants can't ramp up and down even once per day.

> switch the domestic gas network to hydrogen

You can add maybe 20% extra hydrogen to most existing gas networks. Hydrogen molecules are small and will leak from pipes that are designed for natural gas.

However, there's a company planning to generate hydrogen and capture CO2 from the air and create methane and even heavier hydrocarbons from that. We'll see if they can do it cheaply enough.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 22:10 UTC (Fri) by kleptog (subscriber, #1183) [Link]

> What should happen (and happens accidentally on my home array) is I have an old-fashioned electricity meter that runs backwards when my panels are generating a surplus. So I actually only pay for my net consumption.

Absolutely not. The grid has one requirement: power generated = power consumed at all times. If you are generating and consuming power and not making any effort to correlate the two, then you are asking someone else to do it for you and they obviously want to be paid for that. Which happens now via the difference in pricing between your production and consumption.

The different between (predicted) production and (predicted) consumption has to be rectified by the energy imbalance markets, because while we can predict production to some extent, predicting consumption is obviously also not 100% perfect. In NL households without solar panels cost energy companies €4-8/MWh in imbalance costs, but with solar panels €32-65/MWh. These costs used to be distributed over all customers, but there are now moves to charge solar panel owners directly, unless they take steps like disconnecting their solar panels when the electricity price goes negative, or installing a battery.

There's no doubt we could be much smarter about it, with community batteries and allowing you to match your production with your neighbours consumption, but those technologies are only just starting to be rolled out. People who think they can just install solar panels and call it a day massively underestimate the complexities of the electricity grid.

Nuclear in France

Posted Jun 14, 2024 14:43 UTC (Fri) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link] (2 responses)

I happen to know a bit about the French nuclear market, and it's also an outlier when it comes to the cost of nuclear, because the vast majority of their reactors were subsidized by the DGA - France wants to be self-sufficient when it comes to producing nuclear weapons, and in the 1960s and 1970s that meant having domestic reactors that can be repurposed to provide bomb-making materials. It also has a second tier of subsidy for nuclear power because it wants to be self-sufficient in energy, and doesn't have enough fossil fuels to make that practical without nuclear.

Similarly, Japan and China are both outliers because their national governments are willing to heavily subsidise nuclear power in order to avoid having to import power or fuel from outside the country; in Japan's case because it's nuclear or imports, and in China's case because they're aware that burning fossil fuels is a massively time-limited exercise and want to be ready for when it's no longer practical to do so.

Indeed, the only country I can find that has no direct state subsidy for nuclear power, and yet a significant civilian nuclear power industry, is the USA. Even other countries with a dysfunctional nuclear industry (like the UK and Germany) have state subsidy for nuclear.

I have theories as to why this is, but this is very off-topic for LWN, so I'll stop here.

Nuclear in France

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:31 UTC (Fri) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link] (1 responses)

Are there any major power generation systems that do not get build-out subsidies? E.g., solar in the market I'm familiar with currently has extensive subsidies available to cover initial capital costs, both for consumers and commercial projects.

Further, if we want to compare a hydrocarbon plant built without subsidies, to a nuclear one paid for by the state, are we taking into account the fact that the market as it stands generally have no way to price in the cost of the CO2 emissions. I.e., the HC plant is getting that for free - effectively a subsidy too, against the ongoing and future costs incurred to the rest of society by climate change from CO2. Many arguments I've been in do not account for that cost.

If CO2 is going to cause catastrophic damage to large parts of the planet, then the fair present cost of CO2 emissions is basically infinite. If a near-0 carbon electricity system requires nuclear to achieve it, then any subsidy TO ANY LEVEL is _worth it_!

For France, in terms of the annual operational basis I thought EDF were running on a commercial basis. They have an agreement with the french state to provide a certain amount of electricity at minimum, capped to a certain price, and they have to meet their operational costs and extract profits within those parameters. That was my understanding when I went and read EDF reports on this on their costs, as part of a similar debate I was having with someone else.

Who cares if it took subsidies to build the plants. Unless you believe there exists some monetary value past which the damage of CO2 emissions is OK, then this is irrelevant - given the technology available today that is proven to be able to provide reliable, abundant base-load capacity.

On the US market question, you're saying basically everyone else is an outlier. Maybe that's true on "unsubsidised" energy markets, but.. who cares about that? If:

- nearly all energy markets across the world work on a "state subsidises builds in order to get sane planning" (not least because true competition in energy networks and physical delivery is basically impossible; along with market difficulties in building plants in a pure market-competition way)
- every energy market simply is dysfunctional anyway simply on the basis of having no (or near no) ability to correctly price in the societal/global cost of CO2 emissions (which then can only be corrected by state planning, likely by use of subsidies if it wishes to devolve implementation to commercial companies)

Then the "pure" market with no subsidies is indeed both dysfunctional and inefficient, on that view. And the US is indeed the outlier.

Nuclear in France

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:55 UTC (Fri) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link]

EDF are now operating on a commercial basis, but their fleet of nuclear plants was gifted to them at privatisation, and the state has agreed to cover the cost of insuring the plants against major incidents other than those caused by operations, and the cost of decommissioning the plant at end of life. This is a major subsidy to nuclear.

Your point about hydrocarbon plants is reasonable, but note that once you account for the subsidy they're given in terms of being permitted to emit CO2 without penalty at the price that Climeworks and other such companies can currently remove CO2 at a profit, hydrocarbon plants come off more expensive than nuclear, but note that renewables and sufficient battery storage to cover the base load comes out cheaper than nuclear for most inhabited parts of the planet (some parts of Siberia are an exception).

And that's the problem with nuclear as it exists today; if you account for the subsidies, while it's cheaper than fossil hydrocarbon plants, it's more expensive than the combination of wind and solar with NiMH or Li battery chemistries to cover peak use. This only gets worse when you take into account the ability to site batteries near both demand and supply, reducing the need for expensive transmission network upgrades, whereas siting nuclear or hydrocarbon plants in residential areas is problematic simply because they're industrial plants (ignoring fears around nuclear waste etc).

Note, too, that the energy industry has a huge blind spot when it comes to small-scale battery and renewable installations; in most of the world, any battery or renewable installation that's not connected to the high voltage grid (132 kV and above for my location) is treated as part of demand for energy, not part of supply. As a result, we're fairly confident that the projections that say you "need" nuclear for base load are completely and utterly wrong - they're based on the assumption that every single house you see with solar panels on it does not generate any electricity locally, and that batteries attached to houses (Tesla Powerwalls and similar) charge from the grid and turn that energy into heat, rather than supplying it (minus losses) to the house at a later point in time. These are known to be bad assumptions, but actually changing them runs into quagmires about how exactly to account for them.

Disclaimer: I actually work in the electricity sector, and I'm basing some of the above on industry insider information, not on public sources.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 15:27 UTC (Fri) by rschroev (subscriber, #4164) [Link] (2 responses)

In my experience it's not the greens who are betting on unproven technologies; it's more the people who think we all can carry on without any chance, and technology will save us.

Greens, in my experience, advocate using as few of our resources as possible, and as efficiently as possible.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:19 UTC (Fri) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (1 responses)

Depends which greens.

There was an almighty fuss over the Peace lot and a defunct oilrig, and while I've no doubt the oil company was looking to save money, there was also an extremely good eco argument for what they wanted to do. The Greens' attitude came over as "we don't care why it might be a good idea, you can't do that!"

I've always been extremely wary of them since.

It's like the anti-hunting brigade. Most active conservationists hate them, not because they agree with hunting (they don't), but the hunting brigade are prepared to PAY for conservation, precisely because they want stuff to hunt! They make unlikely bedfellows, but pragmatism pushes hunters and conservationists together.

Cheers,
Wol

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 16:25 UTC (Fri) by corbet (editor, #1) [Link]

We are getting increasingly off-topic here, perhaps it's time to wind this one down.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 14, 2024 17:29 UTC (Fri) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

> We have pilots, but we have _0_ countries where this technology is proven to be able to store sufficient energy from renewables to be able to provide base-load capacity to grids.

We have many countries, one of which is the US, where this is proven. In terms of instantaneous power they are already as large as needed, you don't want a single connection to be too big because the grid needs to be table to tolerate any single site dropping out due to a transmission line being cut.
In terms of energy stored, there is of course no limit.

> Decades of ignoring the fact we have a near-0 carbon (most of the carbon is in the concrete of the build probably) energy source that is capable of providing _abundant_ reliable energy. Decades of continuing to burn coal and gas instead.

Obama gave the nuclear industry everything they said they needed, nothing happened(almost, a few got started if you want to be picky) , then nothing happened in four years under Trump.

Currently the nuclear issue is just used as a partisan cudgel by the republicans. They have absolutely zero interest in actually doing anything.

> France has quite reasonably priced electricity.

Around 0.20 euro per kWh, I believe, similar to the EU average. Less than e.g. the UK and more than hydropower-countries to the north.

A solar plant in France should deliver power at 0.01 euro/kWh or less. Nuclear simply cannot compete.

> And, have you even factored in the cost of the large scale battery banks you advocate for into your solar costs?

Yes. It keeps dropping, currently around 75 dollars per kWh capacity, if I remember correctly it was 140 two years ago.

No, nuclear insurance is required and available

Posted Jun 15, 2024 18:22 UTC (Sat) by sdalley (subscriber, #18550) [Link] (1 responses)

> Not a single plant would be built, ever, if the owners had to buy insurance.

Countries vary, but typically require the utilities to buy insurance, contrary to antinuclear myth. See, for example,
https://nuclear-risk.com/products-and-services/ and
https://www.amnucins.com/about-ani/anis-insurance-pools/

USA Price-Anderson Act requires utilities supplying nuclear power to have primary insurance of $450m per reactor, and also, in case of an accident above this level, requires themselves, not the government, to pay up to $122m per reactor into a mutual no-fault liability pool, bringing total cover up to ~$13 billion for a single accident, after which the government would step in. This provides a powerful financial incentive to the industry to run a clean ship.

Total accident claims over the history of the Price-Anderson Act are around $151m to date. The Three Mile Island accident resulted in about $75m of this.

No, nuclear insurance is required and available

Posted Jun 15, 2024 19:13 UTC (Sat) by malmedal (subscriber, #56172) [Link]

Corbet has asked us to stop, apologies for replying yet again.

This is basically zero compared to a damage assessment of a realistic accident scenario, a symbolic sum that the industry agreed to for forms sake.

Elon could pay that much for a joke.

No single person is rich enough to pay for the damage a serious nuclear accident could cause.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 6:28 UTC (Mon) by LtWorf (subscriber, #124958) [Link] (1 responses)

That's just governments subsidising the car industry while pretending to be doing good.

What about the gas guzzlers?

Posted Jun 3, 2024 10:03 UTC (Mon) by pwithnall (guest, #97459) [Link]

No, ULEZ zones really do result in average emissions reductions: https://www.london.gov.uk/programmes-strategies/environme...

Given the huge backlash various local authorities in the UK have received for implementing/trying to implement/expanding ULEZs, they would not be going ahead with them if they didn’t result in societal benefit.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 8:46 UTC (Mon) by DemiMarie (subscriber, #164188) [Link] (15 responses)

I think such initiatives are not going to succeed until hardware makers support hardware for a long time.

Otherwise, the hardware will be hopelessly insecure long before it stops working.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 11:33 UTC (Mon) by jhe (subscriber, #164815) [Link] (5 responses)

Not updating your firmware/microcode only recently became a security risk. It started with ACPI and speculative execution and got worse with UEFI/SecureBoot. Now we get firmware CVEs every other year. ARM doesn't manage much better. Current trajectory is that its getting worse.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 11:41 UTC (Mon) by mjg59 (subscriber, #23239) [Link] (3 responses)

It was always a security risk - we just didn't have as good an understanding of it (SMM vulnerabilities pre-date UEFI by a long time, for example). I'm not sure where ACPI comes into it, it's all executed in the kernel with appropriate checks on where any reads or writes are going.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 14:28 UTC (Mon) by jhe (subscriber, #164815) [Link] (2 responses)

It wasn't before SMM. SMM introduced that problem to x86. A PS/2 style BIOS had no security boundary.

ACPI is less a security problem, but it makes your machine unusable with modern distros that rely on ACPI data that is bogus. Think broken power management & suspend.

Xerox 9700 vibes.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 14:46 UTC (Mon) by mjg59 (subscriber, #23239) [Link]

SMM has been around since the 386SL in 1990 - and that's a point in time where the vast majority of people on x86 were running operating systems that had no meaningful security boundaries in any case, so firmware security only became an interesting problem far after SMM was ubiquitous. As far as ACPI goes, the majority of suspend and power management issues we've had for years now have been down to bugs or shortcomings in the Linux driver stack rather than anything in the ACPI tables (suspend actually involves running surprisingly little ACPI code in most cases). It's always been convenient to just blame ACPI, but I've had to deal with more ACPI-related bugs than most people and very few of them have ended up being down to the quality of vendor tables (the only one that springs to mind off-hand is a system that had garbage in the 64-bit register address values, but given it was a 32-bit system with no PAE and so no way to actually have those registers be above 4GB it's almost more surprising that we only saw that once…)

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 15:41 UTC (Mon) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link]

Even before SMM, it was an issue. The difference is that "back in the day", you had to check steppings and change ICs physically if you cared about security bugs that could affect the running OS, whereas now you can apply a vendor-supplied patch to fix them. As a consequence of fixes getting simpler to apply, we've started demanding that fixes are provided, rather than just accepting that the hardware is buggy.

And, of course, before the 1990s, when SMM became a thing, it was unusual for an OS to offer any meaningful security boundaries at all - security tended to rely on the fact that if you actively tried to break into the OS, the sysadmin could have your network access withdrawn. For better or worse, that's not the model we work on today; we now assume that attacks are inevitable, and we need to harden our systems against them. Those systems that did have meaningful protection against attackers (military computer systems, for example), took care to use chips with the right steppings so that they were secure.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 13:39 UTC (Mon) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link]

It's been a security risk since before you could do in-field updates of firmware and microcode without a hardware swap (it was a risk before Intel was founded, for example, when processors weren't single-chip devices).

Two things have changed: one is the ability to do those updates remotely, the other is that we've entered a world where those vulnerabilities are actually interesting to a subset of attackers, since the other weak links are becoming stronger.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 14:00 UTC (Mon) by cesarb (subscriber, #6266) [Link] (8 responses)

> Otherwise, the hardware will be hopelessly insecure long before it stops working.

Calling it "hopelessly" insecure is hyperbole. With rare exceptions, these vulnerabilities usually need superuser access (or even physical access) to be exploited. To get there, the attacker has to first get past the web browser and the operating system. Even if the hardware no longer receives any firmware updates, keeping the operating system and the web browser (and related applications like PDF readers and document editors) constantly updated should be secure enough for most people.

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Posted Jun 3, 2024 16:01 UTC (Mon) by pizza (subscriber, #46) [Link] (7 responses)

> With rare exceptions, these vulnerabilities usually need superuser access (or even physical access) to be exploited. To get there, the attacker has to first get past the web browser and the operating system.

Once upon a time, you were correct. However in more recent times, many of these data-leakage exploits require no elevated privileges, and real-world attacks have been demonstrated using nothing but javascript running in a web browser.

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 13:08 UTC (Tue) by cesarb (subscriber, #6266) [Link] (6 responses)

> However in more recent times, many of these data-leakage exploits require no elevated privileges, and real-world attacks have been demonstrated using nothing but javascript running in a web browser.

Yes, Spectre is one of the "rare exceptions" I was thinking of (vulnerabilities in out-of-band management systems like Intel AMT is the other, since they allow remote access which completely bypasses the operating system, and it's hard to even know whether they are enabled or not).

But Spectre (and similar) is limited; it cannot do much more than leaking in-memory data. It cannot modify data, it cannot leak "cold" data which is only on disk, and mitigations in web browsers and operating systems can reduce some of its impact (at a performance cost) even without help from the CPU microcode or platform firmware.

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 13:36 UTC (Tue) by pizza (subscriber, #46) [Link] (5 responses)

> But Spectre (and similar) is limited; it cannot do much more than leaking in-memory data.

When that "in-memory data" includes crypto and session keys, authentication credentials to external third party-run services, leaking said "in-memory data" can give an attacker the literal keys to your non-local kingdom.

> mitigations in web browsers and operating systems can reduce some of its impact (at a performance cost) even without help from the CPU microcode or platform firmware.

There's very little the browser can do given that the information being leaked isn't restricted to processes controlled by the browser. Heck, some of these attacks can leak information across *virtual machines*.

Even at the OS level, these "mitigations" generally consist of completely disabling hardware features, usually with _severe_ performance impacts. If said features can even be disabled at all.

Whereas with these microcode patches, the OS has the option of using considerably higher-performance mitigations, if anything is needed at all.

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 14:09 UTC (Tue) by pizza (subscriber, #46) [Link] (3 responses)

> Even at the OS level, these "mitigations" generally consist of completely disabling hardware features, usually with _severe_ performance impacts. If said features can even be disabled at all.
> Whereas with these microcode patches, the OS has the option of using considerably higher-performance mitigations, if anything is needed at all.

Just wanted to follow up on this -- If you have to disable SMT to mitigate against a vulnerability, that's going to result in about a 33% performance impact, meaning you'll need roughly 50% more resources [1] to achieve the same overall performance. 50% more servers, 50% more datacenter space, 50% more power (and cooling), etc.

Or you can use a combination of microcode patches (possibly in combination with OS awareness) to bring the net performance hit to ~5%. It's a win-win for everyone. [2]

[1] Assuming SMT gives you a 50% performance boost on average, losing it means your net performance will be approximately 2/3rds of what it was with SMT. (SMT gains are highly workload dependent)
[2] If you run truly private/trusted workloads, you're going to disable all of these mitigations as part of your performance tuning anyway.

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 14:18 UTC (Tue) by adobriyan (subscriber, #30858) [Link]

> [1] Assuming SMT gives you a 50% performance boost on average, losing it means your net performance will be approximately 2/3rds of what it was with SMT. (SMT gains are highly workload dependent)

Kernel compile is only ~10% faster with HT.

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 15:16 UTC (Tue) by farnz (subscriber, #17727) [Link]

A 50% performance boost for SMT would be very surprising on a well-designed core. 5% to 20% is a more normal range for an Out of Order Execution (OoOE) design, since a good OoOE design is set up so that one thread can utilize all of the resources available, and your workload will tend towards bottlenecking on the same resource for all threads (with SMT's performance boost coming from the fact that you hit the bottleneck at different points on different hardware threads).

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 19:35 UTC (Tue) by cesarb (subscriber, #6266) [Link]

> Just wanted to follow up on this -- If you have to disable SMT to mitigate against a vulnerability, that's going to result in about a 33% performance impact, meaning you'll need roughly 50% more resources [1] to achieve the same overall performance. 50% more servers, 50% more datacenter space, 50% more power (and cooling), etc.

Most servers aren't running untrusted code, and so far I have heard of no demonstration of speculative execution vulnerabilities being exploited solely through a network connection. The impact on web browsers (which do run untrusted code) is lower, since client computers are idle most of the time and thus have resources to spare; there might be an impact on power use, but there's a difference between "the battery lasts less time" and "hopelessly insecure".

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Posted Jun 4, 2024 19:49 UTC (Tue) by cesarb (subscriber, #6266) [Link]

> There's very little the browser can do given that the information being leaked isn't restricted to processes controlled by the browser. Heck, some of these attacks can leak information across *virtual machines*.

The browser is not alone, it works in concert with the kernel, and there are lots of tricks the kernel can use to mitigate these vulnerabilities (both between userspace and the kernel, and between the sandboxed JS process and the other browser processes) even without firmware help.

> Even at the OS level, these "mitigations" generally consist of completely disabling hardware features, usually with _severe_ performance impacts. If said features can even be disabled at all.

The main "completely disabling hardware features" mitigation is disabling SMT. Other than that, most non-microcode mitigations are AFAIK code to block speculation (or make it harmless) at key points, which does have some performance impact, but not severe enough to make the hardware unusable. If you can accept some performance degradation, you can have good enough security even after the hardware maker stopped support for that hardware.


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