The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)
The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)
Posted Jul 15, 2022 9:55 UTC (Fri) by dottedmag (subscriber, #18590)In reply to: The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review) by pebolle
Parent article: The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MIT Technology Review)
A napkin math: if you have 1M participants, 100 participants are terrorists, and the test has 0% false negatives, then this test would drag in 100 real terrorists and 79992 falsely accused ones.
Posted Jul 15, 2022 11:05 UTC (Fri)
by taladar (subscriber, #68407)
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Posted Jul 15, 2022 21:10 UTC (Fri)
by Wol (subscriber, #4433)
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Well actually, if your false positive is high, then your false negative is likely to be low ... if your false positive is that high, you'll probably get 99 out of 100 real terrorists.
I can't remember the exact terminology, but tests either tend to be very good at picking up the target, OR very good at not picking up non-targets. Of course, Sod makes it very hard to run both tests over the same dataset :-)
(We had that with CoVid - tests were either very sensitive and picked up every genuine case along with a lot of false positives, or very specific and didn't pick up false negatives but let genuine cases slip through.)
Cheers,
Posted Jul 20, 2022 6:06 UTC (Wed)
by riking (guest, #95706)
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Posted Jul 16, 2022 13:45 UTC (Sat)
by farnz (subscriber, #17727)
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Depends on the details of the test. We have a 2x2 confusion matrix of test result versus real result, and the false positive rate tells us how many samples fall in one of the 4 cells of the matrix - in this case, how many are in the "test says yes" column and the "real world says no" row. This gives us a decent chance of guessing at the behaviour of the system when the "test says yes", and when the "real world says no", but we need more data to be able to say something about the behaviour of the system when the "test says no" or when the "real world says yes".
In particular, it's common to have a low false negative rate with a high false positive rate, or vice-versa, since the underlying judgement is likely to be a confidence level and a threshold; if you set the threshold low, you have very low false negative rates, but very high false positive rates, while if you set the threshold high, you get very high false negative rates, but very low false positive rates.
Posted Jul 15, 2022 16:20 UTC (Fri)
by NYKevin (subscriber, #129325)
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The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)
The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)
Wol
The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)
The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)
The US military wants to understand the most important software on Earth (MITTechnology Review)