Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
And when you look at the computing you and I will be using over the next 10 years, we won't have software resident on our hard drive. You'll go to somebody -- it may well be Red Hat -- and you'll get an e-mail package, a calendaring function, and it will be a subscription-based Web service. It's not that far away; look at what people do with their cellular phones today."
Posted May 5, 2004 16:07 UTC (Wed)
by copsewood (subscriber, #199)
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I see money to be made in operating the networks and related servers which service end user installations and systems in this manner - something the ISPs are likely to have a head start on once and if they can manage to look beyond the immediate virus/spam problem of the day. ISPs also are likely to have a head start when it comes to reselling non-free copyright media content at sensible prices based on speed of network connection and flat monthly fees.
Posted May 5, 2004 16:38 UTC (Wed)
by gnb (subscriber, #5132)
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Posted May 5, 2004 16:13 UTC (Wed)
by rknop (guest, #66)
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Deja vu. I remember hearing the same exact thing back in 1996 or thereabouts. The age of software on your computer was ending. We were going to thin web clients. Everything was going to be over the network in Java. I should probably read the article, but my knee-jerk reaction is that this is probably no different from last time. (Just like Bush's "We're Going to Mars" declaration will be forgotten as quickly as his father's.) -Rob
Posted May 5, 2004 16:51 UTC (Wed)
by iabervon (subscriber, #722)
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Posted May 6, 2004 23:08 UTC (Thu)
by Tashlan (guest, #17277)
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Tashlan
Posted May 5, 2004 16:36 UTC (Wed)
by elanthis (guest, #6227)
[Link]
Zero Install does cache apps/dependencies on your hard-disk though. Turning the hard-disk into a cache and document store vs the more contemporary "OS filesystem" is a rather interesting thought. Not something I particularly look forward to, but still interesting to think about. ;-)
Posted May 5, 2004 18:17 UTC (Wed)
by AnswerGuy (guest, #1256)
[Link]
So it may be a subscription service but it might be delivered via
CDs.
Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of tapes
I agree that installing and upgrading an OS on the hard disk is something the typical end user really doesn't want to have to do, similarly storing and backing up the user data. However, I think it may be more than 10 years before network bandwidth is adequate such that you don't need to use hard disks for caching software images whose checksums/versions indicate these are not due for network-automated update. I see caching software images in pretty much the same terms as caching http pages at different places in the network to reduce overall bandwidth demand and make more effective use of capacity. Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
>However, I think it may be more than 10 years before network bandwidth... Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
If then. Agreed a typical broadband connection in 10 years time will probably be
fine for running today's software, but of course the software will have had 10
years to get bigger.
I've just read the quote, not the article, but my first thought is:Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
In context, it's a bit better. He's talking about the home user who uses the computer for a few specific tasks. I think he's right that people will say, "Why can't my computer be as simple as my phone?" and somebody will make it. And I bet the CEO of Red Hat and a reporter for ComputerWorld (the "you and I" in the article) might want that, even if you and I don't.
Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
I haven't read the article (blush) but, WebTV comes to mind.Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
Sounds like 0-install, from the quote. Already exists and is usable. :)Red Hat's Szulik sees desktop Linux take off (ComputerWorld)
LTSP, KNOPPIX and friends
I've been running one system at my house in this way for most of a year. Occasionally I fetch the latest KNOPPIX (or Morphix, or MEPIS, or ...) and reboot it. I save configuration data to a thumb drive and it does have a larger data store hanging off of an 80GB hard drive.
The nicest thing about this model is that I have very simple, reliable rollback to my previous suite of software!
My point here is that this model can be achieved today, for free, and not at all like Red Hat would like us to envision it. They clearly are looking for a revenue opportunity. They may, in fact, have one. For my money I would recommend a model using DVD-R and the old reliable postal service. Some interim package updates could be deployed online; some customers could opt for online only (and optionally burning their own DVDs) but the average customer could simply get their disc in the mail and swap it into their drive at their leisure to reboot.
(With some work the use of several gigabytes of hard disk as a cache could free up the single DVD-ROM drive and kexec() could make the reboot process more transparent).
Personally I would also see an opportunity for online backup (using rsync as the transport and gpg encryption for privacy. This could be "trickled" out to the "BSP" (backup service provider) on a continuous basis. With some work a clear delineation between cache/tmp (including OS files) and data (including configuration) would truly minimize the backup storage and bandwidth consumption for typical household, desktop usage. (IMAP for e-mail from a reliable mail provider could also minimize that contribution to our storage overhead).
Sadly I suspect that this model will not have legs. The success of it would be in the degree to which it transparently emulates the current model while offering clear advantages in the short term.
JimD