Debian dropping the Linux Standard Base

Technically you're correct on 1, but from a practical standpoint OpenJDK is making significant inroads. Most of the new Java development is heading to OpenJDK, for recent JDK releases people seem to favor OpenJDK over Oracle JDK, and a lot of distros are distributing OpenJDK as the de facto standard. Based on that I'd argue the fight is still ongoing in the case of Java, but the open version is definitely looking good to score the win.

The fact that the standards process still involves Oracle in any significant fashion I think is largely a red herring, if OpenJDK decided to deviate from Oracle I suspect most developers would go with it and abandon Oracle JDK. The only really troubling part there is the recent court case between Google and Oracle over the copyright-abiltity of the Java API, which might prove troublesome for OpenJDK should they decide to part ways with Oracle entirely.