LWN's unreliable 2014 predictions

Agreed. I share the scepticism. History has shown that new platform markets start with 2 behemoths fighting head on and lots of other also-rans. Eventually only one of the 2 main protagonists wins and becomes the de-facto platform. It then becomes economically unfeasible to dethrone the main protagonist.

I wish all the best to CM, but there's no way they're hiring as many engineers as Google to work on Android. So, for the forseable future, Google will remain the one setting the agenda for Android.