Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Posted Apr 19, 2013 2:08 UTC (Fri) by karim (subscriber, #114)In reply to: Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone by robert_s
Parent article: Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Here's the deal though. If you want to go down that slippery slope, you really need to follow it all the way through.
I was born and raised in a 3rd world country (Egypt.) In fact, I "defected to the west" at an old enough age to understand the staggering differences between the two worlds (if you want to really make it simplistic and cut the thing down the imaginary middle between "rich" and "poor" countries.) And while this is probably the wrong thread to fully explain the mental puzzles I've gone through over 30 years of seeing both sides of it, suffice it to say that there's more to it that the equation you propose.
So here's a question for you: Isn't there part of the rising economies' wealth coming from selling to western countries? If so, how are these economies going to continue to grow if average Joe Westerner can no longer afford purchasing wares because his job has been outsourced to where the wares he used to make cost less to manufacture?
Here's a nice chart for you: http://www.starmass.com/china-review/imports-exports/chin...
If you count EU, USA, HK, Japan, South Korea and Canada as "western" then ~65% of China's exports go to western countries. How much do rising economies contribute to China's exports? Same chart would put it around less than 5%. So stupid question: if the Joe Westerners of this world no longer have jobs how is this going to help China's economy?
Where I come from here's how it works: the elites live like kings because their income is similar to western levels and yet the labour costs are a joke. On such "western" average salaries, you can get yourself a full-timer driver, maid and babysitter. And yet still, any of those people living this lifestyle have one backup plan: if it clusterfucks they're defecting too. I betcha a bunch of people living in other developing countries have such a back up plan too.
So pardon me if I don't think it's as simple as you seem to imply. This race to the bottom (including all economic sectors, not just technology) worries me not just for my "western" side. It worries me because it isn't going to be good for those on the "other side" either. Then again, maybe I'm just misreading what you wrote and/or the implications of these trends are way over my head and my brain can't process it.
Posted Apr 19, 2013 3:20 UTC (Fri)
by rsidd (subscriber, #2582)
[Link] (6 responses)
As for the markets thing - as China gets less competitive to manufacture in, some manufacturing will move back to the developed world (it's happening already) and their economies will improve.
The bigger concern is what all this manufacturing is doing to the environment, climate, food security...
Posted Apr 19, 2013 11:10 UTC (Fri)
by pboddie (guest, #50784)
[Link] (5 responses)
I'm glad that at least one other person cares about these things more than the financial gymnastics involved. Presumably being in the cross-hairs of "decadent western pig"-style rhetoric (most likely coming from someone else in that demographic), I will hold off on the lecturing for a moment to admit that making things affordable does give everyone new opportunities, whether it just makes their lives better or whether it allows people to experiment and develop new things that would previously have been beyond their means. What worries me more is the conditions under which these things are made, how the materials are sourced, where all the waste goes (both during manufacture and after the product has failed and been replaced by its purchaser), and so on. Those of us who are the target demographic for all these gadgets really are living in the future we once dreamed of (for the most part, given that we're not living in space or anything completely fantastic like that), but the people making the goods are living in something with more similarities to the past we studied (or should have been studying) in history lessons. And then one has to consider the factors at work that prevent humanity from learning from, or not simply repeating, its past.
Posted May 1, 2013 19:05 UTC (Wed)
by wookey (guest, #5501)
[Link] (4 responses)
You can put me in that bucket too. There are physical 'limits to growth' which will eventually cause real difficulties, even for the rich countries. There is very little sign that the current economy or societal arrangements are good at dealing with this, and it remains unclear that we will succeed in preventing everything going to crap during my lifetime. If I had children I'd be _really_ worried.
I'd like to see a lot more people trying to work out how you get from here to a 'circular economy': http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy
Posted May 2, 2013 5:59 UTC (Thu)
by dlang (guest, #313)
[Link] (3 responses)
reminds me of studies from the 1800's showing that there were real pysical limits to growth limiting how big a city could get (based in large part on the amount of manure generated by the horses needed for transportation of goods into the cities)
I have great faith that when it matters people will come up with new ways of doing things that extend the limits way beyond what anyone today can imagine.
I may be wrong, but the naysayers have been wrong throughout history, so I think my optimism is standing on the right side of the odds :-)
Posted May 2, 2013 10:12 UTC (Thu)
by wookey (guest, #5501)
[Link] (1 responses)
I agree that it is extremely difficult to say in advance when you will hit a problem that can't be technologically-adapted round. But at some point you will run out of _something_ (space/energy/soil/minerals/rest of ecosystem). The modelling of this shows that it's much easier to get a population crash than stability or gentle decline when this happens, which is almost certainly unpleasant for those involved. ('Limits to Growth' is a very good book on the subject). And understanding EROEI is important too.
But you are quite right that it could be significantly longer than 40 years time (the odds are quite good on that).
Posted May 4, 2013 15:16 UTC (Sat)
by apoelstra (subscriber, #75205)
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Well, at some point there will be so many people that nobody has room to move around and reproduce. I'm with the optimists here that we won't hit any "real" limits before this one -- roughly 1/3 of the earth's surface is solid land, while all of the earth's -volume- contains natural resources (the usual suspects, plus nuclear isotopes, plus geothermal energy, plus biomass...), and there is also ~1kW/m^2 of sunlight hitting half the planet at all times.
We don't even know what's at the bottom of the oceans, or what exactly is below the earth's crust.
And there are tons more resources in other parts of the solar system.
Posted May 2, 2013 15:56 UTC (Thu)
by nim-nim (subscriber, #34454)
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It's foolish to assume problems just solve themselves.
Posted Apr 19, 2013 4:12 UTC (Fri)
by rahvin (guest, #16953)
[Link] (2 responses)
The only time you see what you are worried about is when the product itself is done advancing, then the race to the bottom often results in most of the companies in the sector going bankrupt and those that remain have little to no profit margin. The result being a company that only produces the same product they always have at 1-2% margin. (A good example would be a company that produces Asprin)
I don't think we've reached that point where you fears about canibalizing the companies that support FOSS and I doubt we will in my lifetime. Even if PC's are somewhat stagnant now, the sector is still advancing and there will always be software or hardware that is advancing what we can do if for no other reason than the knowledge humanity is accumulating is still growing exponentially.
Don't get me wrong though, the low end will always be a race to the cheapest possible because even at a 1% profit margin if you sell a billion copies to the worlds population living in near abject poverty you can still make a lot of money. In the end you have a top end driving the market and last years product populating the low end commodity products that improve the lives of the worlds poorest. You'll have a hard time arguing that a $35 cell phone wouldn't change the world for the poorest among us.
Posted Apr 22, 2013 16:30 UTC (Mon)
by pr1268 (guest, #24648)
[Link] (1 responses)
Funny you should mention Aspirin - it is, in fact, a trademark name for acetylsalicylic acid (or ASA). But not in the USA. I remember visiting Canada a few years ago, and the local television stations were showing commercials for just "Aspirin" - it has retained its trademark in Canada (and presumably other countries) - and generic equivalents have to be labeled as "ASA". IIRC its trademark name is owned by Bayer. Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodification But, I disagree somewhat with your assertion that companies will only produce the same product at 1-2% margin. I would counter that most companies that produce commodity products would be diversified enough to have other highly-profitable products. For example, Boeing Aircraft - I remember reading that the 737 airliner was a consistent money-loser for the manufacturer, but the 747 was their "cash cow"1. Of course, a commercial jet airliner isn't exactly a commodity product... I just think that a company with only 1-2% margin on its entire portfolio would be a miserable place to work. ;-) 1 I believe it was T. Heppenheimer's book Turbulent Skies that mentioned this, including the verbatim "cash cow" quote.
Posted Apr 25, 2013 16:36 UTC (Thu)
by rahvin (guest, #16953)
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Posted Apr 19, 2013 9:23 UTC (Fri)
by robert_s (subscriber, #42402)
[Link] (4 responses)
Apologies - statistically on here the assumption is a good bet.
> if the Joe Westerners of this world no longer have jobs how is this going to help China's economy?
You are failing to take into account the dynamic nature of economics. Just because Joe Westerners might not be the wealthy ones with cash in their hands does not mean that the Chinese will suddenly have no customers.
If Joe Westerners have no jobs, the West's wealth will decline in favour of those who are providing goods and services to the West. The demand for high tech products will _not_ just magically evaporate.
And there's nothing anyone can do about it because that's just how economics works - so worrying about a $12 phone is pointless.
Posted Apr 19, 2013 14:06 UTC (Fri)
by raven667 (subscriber, #5198)
[Link] (2 responses)
Another plausible scenario is that if the export market drops out that there won't be enough of a local market to pick up the slack and both economies crash hard. That's the one that keeps many people up at night. In my mind this is why free trade agreements are a bad deal, they are connecting two networks under different administrative control bidirectionally without any firewalls or traffic control.
Posted Apr 21, 2013 21:24 UTC (Sun)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
[Link] (1 responses)
If You claim that freedom of trade is a negative thing, then would Your argumentation still stand, if the protectionist zones were halving Your home town like the Berlin Wall? How about automating the bureaucracy and placing some trade restrictions between every town or part of town? What makes trade restrictions between countries different from trade restrictions between towns?
To avoid misunderstanding: I love the idea that trade is not limited and anyone can provide its goods to any other country (like in the European Union) without any government restrictions, interventions. (OK, the EU does have some rules about gathering statistics to governments and environmental rules, e.g. rules, how goods must be transported, but they are not that repressive).
Posted Apr 22, 2013 22:25 UTC (Mon)
by jdulaney (subscriber, #83672)
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Posted Apr 23, 2013 3:26 UTC (Tue)
by rodgerd (guest, #58896)
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Posted Apr 20, 2013 14:28 UTC (Sat)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
[Link] (27 responses)
It's the classical topic: should the machines at the industrial revolution be destroyed to keep old businesses alive, "workers occupied", or should the workers respecialize, study new skills and move on with their life.
Posted Apr 20, 2013 14:30 UTC (Sat)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
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Posted Apr 20, 2013 14:51 UTC (Sat)
by raven667 (subscriber, #5198)
[Link] (25 responses)
This is going a bit off topic but this answer presumes on faith that there is always a new, high-value industry with a demand for labor that all these people can train into whereas there is little evidence that this is a guaranteed occurrence, the slums around the world should provide evidence of that.
Posted Apr 21, 2013 2:46 UTC (Sun)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
[Link] (24 responses)
Posted Apr 21, 2013 2:52 UTC (Sun)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
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Posted Apr 21, 2013 14:37 UTC (Sun)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
[Link] (21 responses)
s/Medieval towns and villages/Medieval towns and villages as pictured in 3D pictures of modern RPGs/ That's the only explanation I can imagine to produce this bizzare notion. Sure, if you look on Skyrim's towns and villages then they look nice and clean, but reality checks produce something distinctly different: After the Great Stink of 1858, Parliament realised the urgency of the problem and resolved to create a modern sewerage system. Sorry, but by modern standards "medieval towns and villages" were slums. Well, some wealthy parts fared better, but average dweller had no WC and no running water with the accompanying anti-sanitary and smell - how different is it from today's slums? Really? From scratch? With no outside help? Have they built pumps and water towers and power plants themselves or have they received them from someone else? The biggest problems with slums today lies not in the fact that their dwellers can not service each other (they could and do), but the fact that a lot of things needed to keep modern lifestyle can not be produced in slums - they must come from outside. But outside world does not give the required machinery to slums dwellers for free. And that's it. P.S. Actually outside world does give some things to slums dwellers: most of them have mobile phones and TVs by now. Because these are relatively cheap. But running water, reliable power supply and sewers... these are expensive and thus are not available in slums. The rest goes from there.
Posted Apr 21, 2013 20:49 UTC (Sun)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
[Link] (20 responses)
With some modern, salvaged, materials, it should be considerably easier than ant the Roman era.
I'm not saying that it's a small job. I'm just saying that there's nothing stopping those people from building that infrastructure, if they just spent the time that they spend on drinking vodka and doing drugs, on working. Since drug addiction, depression, etc., is a mental illness, the slum, as we know it, is a result of a mental illness. And I'm being called radical for that view....
Posted Apr 22, 2013 7:33 UTC (Mon)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
[Link] (19 responses)
Ah, next fiction. Yep, Roman times. Well, think what distinguished Ancient Rome and Ancient China (with running water and sewage) from medieval towns and villages - and you'll understand why your belief is baseless. Hint: sewage disappeared from Rome not because all the citizens suddenly become mad and stayed mad for a millennium. There were other, more objective reasons. You want to say that all these millions of people in the medieval Europe also spent the time on drinking vodka and doing drugs and that is why running water become luxury and sewers were destroyed?Dream on.
Posted Apr 22, 2013 8:42 UTC (Mon)
by tialaramex (subscriber, #21167)
[Link] (18 responses)
The solution then was the same as the solution today (London's combined sewers right now, like those in many older cities, overflow into its major river, pouring untreated sewage into the Thames every time it does more than drizzle), build a massive city-wide carrier sewer to transport the mess outside of the city via pumping stations. The Victorian sewers were a massive civil engineering project, funded only because of the Great Stink. And today we're just a little ahead, we're building a truly gargantuan civil engineering project under London because the water quality after storms, though it doesn't yet stink, is unacceptably poor.
http://www.thamestidewaytunnel.co.uk/
The other thing is that the problem in villages and towns is not just a linearly smaller version of the problem in a city. Disease caused by raw sewage getting into your fresh water supply is a problem that doesn't scale linearly. In a hamlet or village maybe once in a while somebody gets sick and people stop using a particular supply, in a small town it causes larger groups of people to get sick, a personal tragedy but it's still manageable. In cities it causes epidemics, overrunning public health agencies and leading to a population crash.
Posted Apr 22, 2013 17:14 UTC (Mon)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
[Link] (15 responses)
I'm not a civil engineer, but if the problem is that the London sewage system overflows to the river and it happens due to rain, then even a small child can calculate it out that the amount of sewage a single human creates during a 24h period versus the amount of water (per capita) that rain can produce during a 24h period differs a lot.
If I were the London city key official, then I would finance a project that leaves the current, rainwater based system, intact, because the "right place for clean rainwater" is in the river, and would build a parallel sewage system that uses only the water that comes from toilets and alike. The current, Thales, approach assumes that a huge amount of rainwater, that is already clean enough to be added to the river when it flows on a street, is first mixed with the infectious sewage and then , later, a lot of effort is made for transporting the dirty version of that, initially clean, rain-water and filtering it out of the infectious mixture.
For that reason I think that mixing rainwater and plain sewage water is a really dumb idea.
If the only, ultimate, solution is to keep them separate, then the London city officials should just get on with it, start the real project in stead of financing gigantic ad-hoc solutions.
Posted Apr 22, 2013 18:32 UTC (Mon)
by mpr22 (subscriber, #60784)
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Posted Apr 22, 2013 20:25 UTC (Mon)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
[Link] (13 responses)
Ah, ideal worlds of RPGs! They have such a nice, clean rainwater which belongs to river... Sadly in our reality the biggest pollutant are not humans, but cars. And where do you think all that toxic road run-off goes after rain? Exactly. Now, it may still be a net win to separate these (heavy metal from cars need different treatments then bacterial pollution from human waste), but since there are a lot of places where they can be mixed I'm not sure if it'll be a net win. More information is needed. The next Space Shuttle project? Sorry, but one failure was more then enough. P.S. People often don't understand why I say that Space Shuttle is colossal management failure: come on, it's slightly cheaper to launch something to orbit using Space Shuttle then it's to do that using Apollo - surely it's a success? Not so. At the beginning of Space Shuttle program Apollo program was finished. It was not possible to go back in time and save Apollo's R&D cost by replacing it with Space Shuttle. Which means that ongoing costs of keeping Saturn V and Apollo alive should be compared to development cost of Space Shuttle (and you need to add ongoing costs, too, of course) - and by that measure it's miserable failure. Your "great" sewers idea has the same issue: sure, if you build sewers for a new city it may be feasible to have two parallel systems, but when you deal with the existing city then solutions that "are just piled up on old infrastructure" may actually be preferable.
Posted Apr 23, 2013 0:47 UTC (Tue)
by XERC (guest, #14626)
[Link] (1 responses)
Same thing with the sewers: new and thoroughly renovated houses should be connected to the parallel, rain-water-free, system.
Not that nice from Public Relation's point of view, e.g. can't sell that idea to get votes at next elections, but makes sense in a few hundred year perspective.
Posted Apr 23, 2013 6:36 UTC (Tue)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
[Link]
Abstract ideas with no basis in reality again? Space Shuttle is rare program which threw away everything and started from scratch. There were other programs which did what you say is a sin: Delta in US, Proton and Soyuz in USSR, etc. They all produced more effective, robust and safe way to the orbit. Well, yes: it's easy to create new, modern and ineffective solution. But to know if it'll be a net win or loss you need to compare costs and benefits of both solutions. If your project is beneficial only on timespans measured in centuries then it's a failure: too many unknowns and they tend to increase costs and decrease benefits.
Posted Apr 23, 2013 10:04 UTC (Tue)
by anselm (subscriber, #2796)
[Link] (8 responses)
Comparing Apollo and the Space Shuttle by looking at the cost of getting things into orbit ignores the fact that Apollo wasn't meant to get things into orbit cheaply. The Apollo program was geared towards getting people to the Moon – for a very brief visit – and back (and hopefully before the Soviet Union did it), while the Space Shuttle program was geared towards doing Useful Things in low Earth orbit on a sustainable basis over a period of decades. In terms of space engineering these are very different goals.
You could compare these to winning the Formula 1 world cup vs. getting deliveries done around town. Both are ultimately feats of both engineering and management that should not be belittled (although one of them gets more press). Of course a delivery van will do the latter more efficently and cheaply than a race car, but that is to a greater extent due to facts such as that the delivery van has a big space in the back where you can put stuff, that it will run for thousands of kilometers without needing a lot of maintenance, and that it is road-certified – all of which are perfect non-issues if you're building a Formula 1 racer. So if Ferrari suddenly decided to build delivery vans, having built a championship Formula 1 race car before would probably help them some (automotive engineering being what it is), but re-using or even changing the Formula 1 design would not lead to a useful delivery van. Hence it is ludicrous to claim that Ferrari should compare the ongoing cost of re-using the Formula 1 car design that Ferrari already has, to the R&D cost of coming up with a new design for a delivery van that will actually do the job at hand.
Of course – especially with 20/20 hindsight – it is easy to claim that the Space Shuttle program was a »colossal management failure«. However, simply continuing the Apollo and Saturn V programs wouldn't have helped NASA do what NASA did with the Space Shuttle. There might have been better ways of accomplishing the same goals (and in 2013 the outlook for that is a lot more positive than in 1973), and the Space Shuttle program could surely have been managed better (especially in light of the Challenger crash and its aftermath), but projects of that scale tend to develop a life of their own that does not always proceed according to optimal management and engineering theories.
We have known for a long time that the Space Shuttle program, for all the cool technology involved, fell far short of what was originally expected of it both from a operating-cost and a technical-performance POV, which is a pity but is also what happens when you're messing around with very new things. It was still an important thing to do. So tell us something else that is new.
Posted Apr 23, 2013 11:53 UTC (Tue)
by pboddie (guest, #50784)
[Link] (4 responses)
For instance, spending towards Apollo had fewer constraints than that towards the Space Shuttle, even when considering the budgetary curtailments made in the late 1960s as US politicians saw the opportunity to ramp down spending on space (and ramp up spending on war), leading to the end of Saturn/Apollo production (and the repurposing of vehicles for things like Skylab and Apollo/Soyuz). If you look at it from that perspective, the role of the Space Shuttle programme within NASA and its admittedly overambitious objectives was a bit like telling the sanitation department that "yes, you can try and provide clean water, but do so with a tenth of the money and there will be no more digging!"
One can argue that the money spent on the STS might have been better spent on existing programmes - with recent "doing more for less" activities, there has been talk of using Atlas V to launch some manned spacecraft (although it isn't strictly a continuation of Apollo-era Atlas) - but it's all a question of achieving the right result with the right amount of effort, and having a sustainable organisation. One can also argue that NASA and associated organisations have never got this right (and that various military-industrial contractors make good money from the result), but I also think that the budgetary conditions that NASA operates within are rather different to that of large and necessary infrastructure projects, at least within developed countries: even in Britain, governments will commit large sums over several years to get such projects done, whereas NASA will see funding rise and fall depending on the mood of the legislature.
I think that what almost all of us can agree on, however, is that infrastructure investment is incredibly expensive and is virtually impossible to achieve at any scale for disadvantaged people acting alone and unsupported whose lives are already dominated by the fight to merely survive.
Posted Apr 23, 2013 22:04 UTC (Tue)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
[Link] (3 responses)
Of course. When you build an Formula 1 car price is less important then when you build "a delivery van". Which is, of course, stupid. Either you need to decide that there should be no more digging (and then you'll get by without clean water) you you need to approve digging. The fact that you accept an explanation of sanitation department that it can provide clean water "with a tenth of the money and no more digging" leads to the stone soup of a Space Shuttle. Which in the end requires more money and more digging then straightforward approach of keeping old wells around. Yes. That's why I say Space Shuttle is great engineering achievement (no joke, it's really a marvel from the engineering POV) yet miserable managerial failure. The fact that it was actually built and used shows how great NASA engineers are and the fact that it was ever started shows how gullible the top management is. Yup. It's question of scale. You can not do them with a small community and people who can organize and lead large communities rarely stay in slums.
Posted Apr 24, 2013 11:01 UTC (Wed)
by pboddie (guest, #50784)
[Link] (2 responses)
Bear in mind, here, that you originally appeared to bring up the Space Shuttle as an example of starting over at great expense (in response to the idea that the London authorities should "start the real project", in the words of the commenter advocating an end to "gigantic ad-hoc solutions"), but getting by on reduced means is more or less what the Space Shuttle was all about. A lot of the problems shared by large infrastructure owners and NASA have something to do with how you schedule the financing. Thus, from what I've read from various historical accounts, the idea with the Space Transportation System was to promise a scalable platform with something supposedly affordable in the beginning that could be expanded through further investment later on, thus deferring the expense to future taxpayers: a classic political move. This does actually cross back over to the original article, sort of. One might wonder why people don't save up for a better phone than some $12 unit that some might regard as disposable, but the answer has something to do with needing what it offers straight away and not having the luxury to put money aside for something better. Over time, this may actually mean that the unfortunate customer ends up spending more money on lower-quality products that need replacing than on durable higher-quality ones. Naturally, the sale of lower-quality "economy" products is a rather widespread business model.
Posted Apr 24, 2013 12:06 UTC (Wed)
by dlang (guest, #313)
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In areas where the thing you are looking at buying is changing rapidly (improving, dropping in price, etc), buying a top-of-the-line device and replacing it every 5 years is far more expensive, and results in you having a worse device on average than if you buy a el-cheapo device and replace it every year.
Now, if there really is a durability difference, and the object in question is not changing significantly (example boots), then it really can be better to spend a lot more money up front and get the expensive, durable version. And in cases like this, people who can't afford to invest that much money up front do suffer in the long run.
But that doesn't make the people who produce the cheap boots 'exploiters of the masses' or anything like that, they are producing a product that people want, and if the product wasn't available the consumer would be worse off (because they would have to do without, as the lack of a cheap product would not magically give people money to buy the expensive version)
Don't forget that there is a time value of money. Even excluding inflation, current money is worth more than future money, and so tieing up more cash now to get the more expensive version may really be worse for you than getting the cheap version and having the cash available for other things, even if it does cost more in the long run. The larger a percentage of your available cash a particular purchase is, the more likely it is to be a problem. (this is one of the reasons that once someone gets enough wealth, they tend to get richer, they can afford to make decisions that cost more now, but save money in the long run as these decisions involve a much smaller percentage of their available capitol)
perfect is the enemy of good enough. It's not always better to do without while designing/building/saving for the perfect solution.
As for the Shuttle, that's a topic that is FAR to big to go into now. It's an impressive engineering achievement, but was mis-managed not just by NASA, but by Congress as well. There is more than enough blame to spread around there. It never really achieved it's goal (making access to space routine) and while it was presented as a 'delivery van' it was built and managed more like a custom, hand build, Rolls Royce fleet of station waggons. They were years (decades??) behind schedule getting built, but in large part were limited by the technology available at the time the design process was started. I remember reading articles calling for them to be replaced by more modern designs back in the early 80's (and not with new start-from-scratch technologies, but with re-using existing components for the most part, but leveraging the new design capabilities that existed by then)
Posted Apr 27, 2013 20:58 UTC (Sat)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
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Sorry, by no, not even close: From the very beginning it was the opposite of your portrayal: yes, Space Shuttle promised savings "sometime in the future" but of course R&D budget was huge from the very beginning - exactly as proposed insane plan for sewers.
Posted Apr 23, 2013 21:51 UTC (Tue)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
[Link] (2 responses)
Nope. That's the whole freaking point! Right. May be, but does it mean it's good idea to develop something new from scratch for the latter goal if you already know how to solve former goal? NASA had a choice: continue to advance Altas (which brought first US citizen in space, remember), Delta, Saturn V and others or develop something new from scratch. By now Space Shuttle is history and we know that total cost is higher for the second variant (if you'll spread R&D cost over all 135 you still get huge sums even if you'll forget about huge disparity between promised price of launch and actual price of launch), so how can you say it was sane choice? Space Shuttle is both majestic and awful: the fact that this beast was eventually brought to space is great achievement, but the fact that it was ever conceived is miserable failure. That's the problem: it was cheaper to adjust Formula 1 design in this particular case! The development cost of new delivery van was so huge and savings from it so minuscule that suppositional savings never materialized. Why is it ridiculous? Well, may be not with Formula 1 and delivery van, but this is routine calculations Airbus or Boeing are doing. Any new plane must not only be cheaper then a plane it replaces, but also must recoup R&D cost, or else it's considered failure. If there are not enough savings in the supposed lifetime of some model then projects are shelved early on. Why should NASA should treated any differently? Really? What exact capability Space Shuttle offered over Apollo which was ever used for something? It had the ability to return large amount of stuff from space, true, but this capability was never actually used and everything else Mercury or Apollo had the ability to do. Initial calculations already showed that advantage of Space Shuttle over Apollo were tiny and as we now know they were very, very optimistic. The only true capability Space Shuttle brought to the table was never used, so... where is the win?
Posted Apr 24, 2013 19:37 UTC (Wed)
by intgr (subscriber, #39733)
[Link] (1 responses)
It had another capability, it could glide! :)
Bear with me because I don't know very much about space tech and I have no way of verifying these claims. But it's an interesting theory, especially in light of what you say about its ability to retrieve things from space and its cost/benefit analysis.
A few years ago I read an article which talked about U.S. military involvement in the Space Shuttle project (I think it was in relation to the X-37 unmanned space vehicle). It claimed that USAF played a role in choosing the particular winged design for the Space Shuttle (out of many), despite the fact that it was unpopular with NASA engineers. Unfortunately I can't find the original article any more.
One of the purported military uses was the ability to get into orbit, steal an enemy satellite and glide back to Earth, circling the planet in less than a day. It escapes me why gliding was particularly important for this use.
On the other hand, with a different design and without military interests, maybe the project would have never been funded.
Posted Apr 24, 2013 20:03 UTC (Wed)
by cladisch (✭ supporter ✭, #50193)
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> One of the purported military uses was the ability to get into orbit, steal an enemy satellite and glide back to Earth, circling the planet in less than a day. It escapes me why gliding was particularly important for this use. The requirement was for the shuttle to be able to change its course somewhat (in the atmosphere, thus the wing shape) so that it could return back to where it started even after the earth had rotated the start point away: Mission 3A/3B (PDF).
Posted Apr 24, 2013 14:41 UTC (Wed)
by tialaramex (subscriber, #21167)
[Link] (1 responses)
In principle "separating" London's sewers isn't impossible. But it would be prohibitively expensive. Some US cities have done it, but we're not talking about New York or Los Angeles here, but rather places like Minneapolis - scarcely comparable to London in either size or density.
Posted Apr 28, 2013 14:00 UTC (Sun)
by foom (subscriber, #14868)
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Posted Apr 22, 2013 20:03 UTC (Mon)
by khim (subscriber, #9252)
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Really? Yup. But if you'll actually check the facts then you'll see that latrine systems have been found in many places, such as Housesteads, a Roman fort on Hadrian's Wall, in Pompeii, Herculaneum, and elsewhere that flushed waste away with a stream of water. Right. The only problem: it explains why medieval towns were much smaller then Ancient Rome or today's cities, it does not explain why Ancient Rome and Industrialization Era London were able to solve this problem while medieval towns died off instead.
Posted Apr 24, 2013 12:39 UTC (Wed)
by tialaramex (subscriber, #21167)
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Posted May 2, 2013 16:14 UTC (Thu)
by nim-nim (subscriber, #34454)
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Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
The bigger concern is what all this manufacturing is doing to the environment, climate, food security...
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
A good example would be a company that produces Asprin
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
I just think that a company with only 1-2% margin on its entire portfolio would be a miserable place to work. ;-)
AFAIK that's the operating margin of most Chinese manufacturers. The link below quotes FoxConn's rate at 1.5% (in Q1 2012 but were as high as 2.7% in 2007) and they are one of the biggest and have the best ability to charge higher rates due to their size. I've read of margins as low as 0.3% for some contract manufacturers on the mainland. I don't think you are wrong in arguing you wouldn't want to work somewhere with margins that low.
http://www.macrumors.com/2012/01/05/foxconn-profit-margin-remains-tight-as-apple-flourishes/
As a side note, these margins are the reason the Chinese mainland has become the largest industrial zone in the world and one of the primary reason some economists aren't worried about long term Chinese domination of the manufacturing sector because as soon as they try to raise margins it becomes more cost effective to not manufacture in China. There are arguments that even raising the margins to higher than 3% will make US manufacturing cheaper for a great number of products which can be manufactured with limited labor (by that I mean assembly lines that use limited human labor and much of the repetitive tasks are done by automated systems, China will likely continue to dominate the jobs that relay on huge assembly lines of warm bodies as long as their currency doesn't appreciate too much).
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
About Free Trade Agreements
About Free Trade Agreements
Huang: The $12 Gongkai Phone
About the Race to the bottom
About the Race to the bottom
About the Race to the bottom
I don't see, what is stopping the people in the slums from servicing each other by using outdated technologies and skills.
Medieval towns and villages were not slums, despite the fact that the skill set and tools of the medieval workers was probably poorer than the ones available to the people in the modern slums.
About the Slums Around the World
Yes, the living quality and life expectancy of the medieval citizens is shorter, worse than that of the "rich and famous", but slums are a result of mental illness, not harsh economic situation.
Estonians that were forcingly deported to the Siberia by the Soviet Union did not live in the slums there. Indeed, many of them died due to malnutrition and hard labor, but after a few years, they built proper housing and some services literally from scratch. Most of the fertile land in Siberia is still inhabited and some local Russians even live there nowadays.
About the Slums Around the World
About the Slums Around the World
Medieval towns and villages were not slums
Indeed, many of them died due to malnutrition and hard labor, but after a few years, they built proper housing and some services literally from scratch.
About the Slums Around the World
About the Slums Around the World
I agree that building a well might be a bit difficult, specially in dry areas, where the well has to be very deep, but what regards to the running water, then I do believe that a community of slum people are able to collectively afford an electrical pump and dig/build sewage canals the way they were built during the Roman times.
I'm just saying that there's nothing stopping those people from building that infrastructure, if they just spent the time that they spend on drinking vodka and doing drugs, on working.
About the Slums Around the World
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
While mixing storm and sanitary sewers is indeed a bad idea, digging up every road in London to fix the problem is not viable on the desired timescale.
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
If I were the London city key official, then I would finance a project that leaves the current, rainwater based system, intact, because the "right place for clean rainwater" is in the river, and would build a parallel sewage system that uses only the water that comes from toilets and alike. The current, Thales, approach assumes that a huge amount of rainwater, that is already clean enough to be added to the river when it flows on a street, is first mixed with the infectious sewage and then , later, a lot of effort is made for transporting the dirty version of that, initially clean, rain-water and filtering it out of the infectious mixture.
If the only, ultimate, solution is to keep them separate, then the London city officials should just get on with it, start the real project in stead of financing gigantic ad-hoc solutions.
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
I agree with the Space Shuttle example, but only TILL IMPROVEMENTS HAVE TO BE MADE to the old rockets. From that point onwards it's more reasonable to dedicate the development resources to brand new technology.
Same thing with the sewers: new and thoroughly renovated houses should be connected to the parallel, rain-water-free, system.
Not that nice from Public Relation's point of view, e.g. can't sell that idea to get votes at next elections, but makes sense in a few hundred year perspective.
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
For instance, spending towards Apollo had fewer constraints than that towards the Space Shuttle.
If you look at it from that perspective, the role of the Space Shuttle programme within NASA and its admittedly overambitious objectives was a bit like telling the sanitation department that "yes, you can try and provide clean water, but do so with a tenth of the money and there will be no more digging!"
One can argue that the money spent on the STS might have been better spent on existing programmes - with recent "doing more for less" activities, there has been talk of using Atlas V to launch some manned spacecraft (although it isn't strictly a continuation of Apollo-era Atlas) - but it's all a question of achieving the right result with the right amount of effort, and having a sustainable organisation.
I think that what almost all of us can agree on, however, is that infrastructure investment is incredibly expensive and is virtually impossible to achieve at any scale for disadvantaged people acting alone and unsupported whose lives are already dominated by the fight to merely survive.
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
The fact that you accept an explanation of sanitation department that it can provide clean water "with a tenth of the money and no more digging" leads to the stone soup of a Space Shuttle.
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
Thus, from what I've read from various historical accounts, the idea with the Space Transportation System was to promise a scalable platform with something supposedly affordable in the beginning that could be expanded through further investment later on, thus deferring the expense to future taxpayers: a classic political move.
Another competing approach was maintaining the Saturn V production line and using its large payload capacity to launch a space station in a few payloads rather than many smaller shuttle payloads. A related concept was servicing the space station using the Air Force Titan II-M to launch a larger Gemini capsule, called "Big Gemini", rather than using the shuttle.
The shuttle supporters answered that given enough launches, a reusable system would have lower overall costs than disposable rockets. If dividing total program costs over a given number of launches, a high shuttle launch rate would result in lower per-launch costs. This in turn would make the shuttle cost competitive with or superior to expendable launchers. Some theoretical studies mentioned 55 shuttle launches per year, however the final design chosen would not support that launch rate. In particular the maximum external tank production rate was limited to 24 tanks per year at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility.Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
Comparing Apollo and the Space Shuttle by looking at the cost of getting things into orbit ignores the fact that Apollo wasn't meant to get things into orbit cheaply.
The Apollo program was geared towards getting people to the Moon – for a very brief visit – and back (and hopefully before the Soviet Union did it), while the Space Shuttle program was geared towards doing Useful Things in low Earth orbit on a sustainable basis over a period of decades.
In terms of space engineering these are very different goals.
So if Ferrari suddenly decided to build delivery vans, having built a championship Formula 1 race car before would probably help them some (automotive engineering being what it is), but re-using or even changing the Formula 1 design would not lead to a useful delivery van.
Hence it is ludicrous to claim that Ferrari should compare the ongoing cost of re-using the Formula 1 car design that Ferrari already has, to the R&D cost of coming up with a new design for a delivery van that will actually do the job at hand.
However, simply continuing the Apollo and Saturn V programs wouldn't have helped NASA do what NASA did with the Space Shuttle.
There might have been better ways of accomplishing the same goals (and in 2013 the outlook for that is a lot more positive than in 1973), and the Space Shuttle program could surely have been managed better (especially in light of the Challenger crash and its aftermath), but projects of that scale tend to develop a life of their own that does not always proceed according to optimal management and engineering theories.
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
Apollo vs. the Space Shuttle?
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
An idea About the Thames Tideway Tunnel
About the Slums Around the World
For one thing the Romans weren't using their sewers the way Great Stink era London had begun to use sewers.
The trigger for the Great Stink was, amusingly, the introduction of a water closet that resembles modern toilets. ie what we'd think of as a step forward for hygiene - suddenly more and more Londoners were pouring vast quantities of polluted liquid into the system and it couldn't keep up.
Disease caused by raw sewage getting into your fresh water supply is a problem that doesn't scale linearly. In a hamlet or village maybe once in a while somebody gets sick and people stop using a particular supply, in a small town it causes larger groups of people to get sick, a personal tragedy but it's still manageable. In cities it causes epidemics, overrunning public health agencies and leading to a population crash.
About the Slums Around the World
About the Slums Around the World