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Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 10, 2011 15:38 UTC (Tue) by AlexHudson (guest, #41828)
In reply to: Ubuntu resources vs. quality by drag
Parent article: Ubuntu cloud chief beats CTO to exit door (The Register)

What your arguing is something along the lines that that since car tires are low margin then there is no point for automobiles to including wheels for customers.

No, what I'm saying is that you can't put the cart before the horse. Saying that Canonical's customers require high-level AD functionality and transparent Windows integration is simply wrong: their customers do *not* require that, because Ubuntu does not have these features and therefore people would not be using it (or be a customer) if it was a requirement.

Would Canonical attract more/different customers if it did have those features? Almost certainly. Should Canonical do this? For the reasons I outlined previously - that there is little money in it - the answer is obviously "no".

Canonical is already a jack of too many trades. They do not specialise in anything, except "Ubuntu", which as a marque covers everything from the OS to a music store to training. They're probably already too diversified as it stands; to diversify even further and attempt to directly aim at the SME market would be suicide. I'm not saying the market doesn't exist; clearly it does (cf. Zentyal). It makes no *business* sense for Canonical to address it directly like that, though.


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Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 10, 2011 16:43 UTC (Tue) by jspaleta (subscriber, #50639) [Link] (1 responses)

Doesn't all of this discussion assume that Canonical has "customers" ?

I'm not sure that's a valid assumption to make. Canonical has never released any hard numbers for their _paying_ customers for any of their services. Landscape is their longest running subscription service revenue stream and we've never, ever, seen them tout the uptake of that revenue generating service. And the usage numbers for that service they don't have to estimate, they know them in exact detail. And yet they have never even issued a trending statement that talks about relative growth. Does Canonical have customers? If they do Canonical doesn't seem real interest in talking about them. Instead of hearing Shuttleworth wax eloquent about his mythical 200 million user goal to rally the troups. I'd like to see him talk soberly about sustainability business priorities and about how he and the rest of the remaining Canonical Board getting the paying Canonical customerbase to 1% to 3% the size of the total Ubuntu userbase as a way to actually get Ubuntu to be self-sustaining. The entire Ubuntu ecosystem depends on Canonical as the managing entity of the project. If Canonical can't get their business priorities together, Ubuntu as a project loses.

-jef

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 10, 2011 17:08 UTC (Tue) by AlexHudson (guest, #41828) [Link]

They definitely have customers. I suspect, though, that the majority of their income is not via subscriptions - as you say, those products have not been around long enough (aside from Ubuntu itself, which they've bizarrely sworn off making money from directly - personally, I think that's nuts. $10 per copy of LTS is not going to rub anyone up the wrong way, and even if a few hundred thousand people bought it you're still talking millions of dollars).

So I rather imagine most of their income is via development projects with OEMs, the likes of litl, the consultancy for large Ubuntu deployments, all that malarkey. I don't think they would have ever gone down the Unity road in the first place unless there were OEM customers somehow stumping up for that work to happen.

However, are they making much money? I really like the idea that they've done a 10k desktop rollout in Germany: practically every other story like that from other vendors has gone bad in subsequent years, but this is a much more controlled environment, so should be more successful. At this stage, though, they should have many more case studies like that, so you have to think there aren't many of these big deployments about that they're supporting directly.

I also know that they've been handing out Landscape freebies to various people pour encourager les autres, so how much of a haircut they're taking on these various deals who knows - I'm pretty sure they are extremely keenly priced.

I think the problem is basically this: we assume they're not break-even yet, otherwise that would have been trumpeted already. We can also figure out that they're burning millions of dollars each year (has to be ballpark $10M when you consider staffing/office costs/etc.), and have done for the last few years (would have been much less in the early days).

So the question isn't, are they making millions of dollars in revenue, they must be. The question is, how many millions short are they, and what revenues are going to scale without scaling costs to meet that shortfall?

I'm personally not hugely worried that they don't release much information, no-one would realistically expect them to - no private business would ever do that. And as a non-Ubuntu user, the future of that ecosystem doesn't keep me awake at night either. Canonical will be here for years yet. Whether or not they continue to grow, though, or start years of minor cuts here and there and slide back - that wouldn't surprise me. The model was always one of artificial growth to capture market. It remains to be seen if the market is actually there.

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 10, 2011 18:39 UTC (Tue) by drag (guest, #31333) [Link] (4 responses)

> No, what I'm saying is that you can't put the cart before the horse. Saying that Canonical's customers require high-level AD functionality and transparent Windows integration is simply wrong: their customers do *not* require that, because Ubuntu does not have these features and therefore people would not be using it (or be a customer) if it was a requirement.

Sorry.

I state it a different way:

If Canonical wants to have any hope succeeding in a market and getting _new_ customers then they will have to provide functionality that the vast majority of potential customers _REQUIRE_.

Directory services, identity management, certificate management, authentication management, strong authentication, distributed management informations, sane defaults, proper integration, etc etc.

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 11, 2011 13:49 UTC (Wed) by jmalcolm (subscriber, #8876) [Link] (3 responses)

I think the disagreement comes on assumptions of who the customers should be. The audience you have identified needs these things. The other poster is saying that, since Ubuntu cannot profitably compete in those areas at the moment, they should focus on customers that do not require them.

It sounds like you believe that "all" potential customers require these things. Others disagree.

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 11, 2011 14:01 UTC (Wed) by Cato (guest, #7643) [Link] (2 responses)

Agreed - since the enterprise desktop Linux market is quite small and mostly covered by Red Hat, it makes more sense for Ubuntu to target other markets such as (perhaps) consumer and developer desktops/laptops/netbooks, enterprise servers, and cloud servers.

The main reasont to target consumer/developer client hardware is to "do a Microsoft" whereby people use Ubuntu at home or as their preferred development environment, creating pressure for it to be used as a production server environment for enterprise or cloud. In reality the client and server segments don't have that much to do with each other, but this "home to work pressure" does happen, and probably explains why Ubuntu is now commonly offered by Xen-based VPS providers.

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 11, 2011 16:08 UTC (Wed) by dlang (guest, #313) [Link] (1 responses)

"home to work" is what got RedHat to be big in the datacenter. Since they have abandoned the home end of this (and no, I don't think that Fedora is a good replacement, it's too bleeding edge), the door is open for another distro to move in.

so far Ubuntu seems to be doing a good job of moving into the home space, and I think we are just starting to see the effect of this in the server space (mostly in the cloud options as noted)

Ubuntu resources vs. quality

Posted May 11, 2011 18:23 UTC (Wed) by Trelane (subscriber, #56877) [Link]

_The_Innovator's_Dilemma_ is worth reading. :)


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