Kuhn: The Anatomy of a Modern GPL Violation

Posted Dec 9, 2009 19:54 UTC (Wed) by andrel (guest, #5166)
In reply to: Kuhn: The Anatomy of a Modern GPL Violation by HelloWorld
Parent article: Kuhn: The Anatomy of a Modern GPL Violation

There are well established statistical techniques for estimating unknowns such as population size. One could use them to estimate the odds of a violation being detected.

Kuhn: The Anatomy of a Modern GPL Violation

Posted Dec 10, 2009 9:52 UTC (Thu) by dgm (subscriber, #49227) [Link] (1 responses)

Interesting. Excuse the off-topicness, but can you give some pointers (names or introductory articles) for the benefit of the less educated in statistics?

Kuhn: The Anatomy of a Modern GPL Violation

Posted Dec 10, 2009 22:25 UTC (Thu) by andrel (guest, #5166) [Link]

A search on phrases like "estimating population size" or "estimating number of undetected crimes" should get you started.

Here's how we might estimate the number of devices using GPLed software. First collect a random sample of devices, say by buying randomly chosen products at Fry's. Then get one of Kuhn's smart developers to poke at each device in the sample to determine if it contains GPLed software. The percent of devices in the random sample using GPLed software is an estimate of the percent of all devices using GPLed software. Now find out the total number of devices on the market, either by looking it up in the trade press, or estimate it by counting how many devices are sold at Fry's. Multiply the two numbers.

Granted, this may not be easy to do in practice. But it could be done, and I wouldn't be surprised if someone has.