Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

>> In blocks mined by the miners using the old rules, you mean—blocks which will be ignored by the majority of clients following the new rules. No loss there. Clients will just get their transactions included in other blocks mined according to the new rules.
> OK, now you are talking different. Now you are talking about a hard fork, e.g. if there are miners that use different rules the clients have the choice which miners to follow.

Actually, that is exactly what I've been saying all along. However, it's not like the miners form some sort of invite-only cartel. Clients have the option of becoming miners themselves, if no one else wants to do the job according to their specifications. Ergo, they always have a choice of miners to follow.

Hard forks are difficult for social reasons more so than technical ones. No one wants to see a situation where a significant minority backs the losing fork, even if it is short-lived. It makes for bad press. This is why hard forks generally require 95% or higher buy-in before they take effect, and why Bitcoin XT was roundly criticised for setting a lower threshold before it started accepting and mining larger blocks. However, there can be little question that it's ultimately the merchants who accept bitcoin as payment who determine the minimum standards for acceptable blocks. The miners can notarize whatever transactions they want, but they won't get any worthwhile reward unless their blocks are considered valid by the merchants holding the goods and services they wish to purchase.