|
|
Log in / Subscribe / Register

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 3:57 UTC (Sun) by jcm (subscriber, #18262)
Parent article: Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Bitcoin as implemented was always doomed to failure. To be successful as a currency, you need governments backing you and underwriting your efforts (same as you need industry heavyweights - e.g. IBM et al in the previous decade - backing Open Source software for it to actually be successful at scale). The dollar works because of the United States government, military, nukes, and so on. It doesn't just keep chugging along because people love the greenback. Sure, there are always a bunch of laissez faire types who jump on the misguided libertarian bandwagon and go do their own thing. They always fail because they neglect to consider how the real world actually runs, in that place called reality, not the Internet.

Blah blah blah "you're so wrong Jon..."

Except I'm not. But sure, tell me how wrong I am.


to post comments

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 5:23 UTC (Sun) by JanC_ (subscriber, #34940) [Link] (1 responses)

There is lots of open source software that became hugely popular without “industry heavyweights” backing it. Some even *lost* market share after such companies became involved…

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 5:31 UTC (Sun) by marcH (subscriber, #57642) [Link]

Software - like many other forms of intellectual "property" - is unusual: it can be copied at near zero cost. This makes it a very special case economically. Generally not a good example.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 5:27 UTC (Sun) by marcH (subscriber, #57642) [Link] (10 responses)

> The dollar works because of the United States government, military, nukes, and so on.

"Democracy is the worst from of government... except for all the others."

With all their respective and very many sins and despite "the 1%", democracies are still the most... "decentralized" forms of control. So Bitcoin failed to beat this; let's watch and see what comes next.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 11:56 UTC (Sun) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (9 responses)

> "Democracy is the worst from of government... except for all the others."

Actually, democracy is "government of the middle class, by the middle class, for the middle class". Which is why it's now under so much threat. And which is also why attempts to impose it on other countries fail so disastrously.

Democracy blossomed in Britain with the rise of the Victorian middle class. Democracy survived in India despite people saying it wouldn't, because there was a large middle class. Various attempts to "democratise" South America have imploded because the countries had no middle class to speak of and they elected a dictator to power (and just look at the similar mess in Africa. In fact, because of hyper-inflation, that's probably why a certain AH was *elected* to power in Germany!).

The middle class is being squeezed. More and more of the world's wealth is being concentrated in the hands of fewer and fewer people. Even as the "average salary" is rising, the salary of the "average man" is falling ...

I think our democratic experiment is coming to an end. Look at pretty much EVERY election nowadays, America being a perfect example, victory goes to the person who managed to outspend everyone else. Our setup isn't quite so bad - there are strict spending limits - but it's still pretty obvious that throwing money at a constituency will win that constituency. It's just that there's a limit to the amount of money you can throw.

Cheers,
Wol

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 17:16 UTC (Sun) by spaetz (guest, #32870) [Link] (6 responses)

> I think our democratic experiment is coming to an end.

Could people (not just you) please discuss their general political opinions in fora dedicated to these topics and leave lwn for technical and open source-relevant issues, please? The signal2noise ratio seems to detoriate pretty quickly these days. Thanks.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 21:03 UTC (Sun) by epa (subscriber, #39769) [Link]

"Time to end the disastrous democratic experiment." -- Sword_of_truth

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 7:47 UTC (Mon) by marcH (subscriber, #57642) [Link] (4 responses)

There's still an easy and quite reliable way to avoid seeing political discussions on LWN: whenever you find an article about a fairly political topic - like for instance a new and revolutionary currency - then simply avoid reading its comments section.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 23:00 UTC (Mon) by flussence (guest, #85566) [Link] (3 responses)

I'm not fussed either way but spaetz has a legitimate complaint: it's quite hard to skip over large off-topic threads in the "unread comments" interface.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 20, 2016 7:20 UTC (Wed) by marcH (subscriber, #57642) [Link] (1 responses)

Missed that, don't use this interface much. Maybe because it's... not that convenient to use and should be enhanced :-)

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 20, 2016 7:24 UTC (Wed) by marcH (subscriber, #57642) [Link]

Thought of this just now: http://dir.gmane.org/gmane.lwn - now this would really rock!

(Check http://dir.gmane.org/gmane.linux.kernel if you never heard of gmane before)

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 20, 2016 19:22 UTC (Wed) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link]

At least you've got "unread comments" :-)

Non-subscribers just have an "all comments" view, as best I know ...

Cheers,
Wol

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 23:54 UTC (Sun) by anselm (subscriber, #2796) [Link] (1 responses)

Contrary to popular belief, Hitler wasn't actually elected by the German people, he was artificially installed as chancellor of the German Reich by the Reich president, Hindenburg. In fact, in the last non-rigged election Hitler's party actually lost votes compared to the one before that, and didn't achieve a parliamentary majority that would have been sufficient to form a government (which is why Hindenburg stepped in). To be fair, Hindenburg wasn't a huge fan of Hitler's either – Hindenburg was popular as a general and war hero and used to think of Hitler, who had fought for a time during WWI, as “that Bohemian corporal” –, but by that time he was quite elderly and his advisors assured him that a coalition government consisting mostly of Conservatives that included only two Nazi ministers apart from Hitler himself as chancellor couldn't be so bad.

Also, when Hitler came to power, the German hyper-inflation had been over for 10 years or so. There was a period of several years of relative stability and prosperity between the hyper-inflation and the Great Depression, and the latter did contribute to the political that eventually led to the Nazis coming to power.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 0:31 UTC (Mon) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link]

> Also, when Hitler came to power, the German hyper-inflation had been over for 10 years or so.
Moreover, it was actually a period of severe _deflation_ with all the problems of a deflationary spiral.

Hitler stopped it by introducing a "stimulus" program in the form of huge military expenditures and public projects (like the initial Autobahn system).

Why is it important? Bitcoin is by design deflationary - the value of the individual coins will increase over time.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 17, 2016 5:45 UTC (Sun) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link] (22 responses)

Bitcoin failed because people just don't really use it for anything legitimate. It's a real digital cash with all of its drawbacks - if somebody steals your wallet it's GONE. You can't just go and dispute the fraudulent transactions on your bank's website. Ditto for losing your wallet.

The fact that bitcoins replicated another "feature" of cash and are used mostly for criminal and semi-criminal purchases doesn't help the matter a bit.

And since nobody really controls the amount of bitcoins in circulation, it's subject to wild currency swings.

All of this makes bitcoins a really bad idea for anything important. And I think that solving these problems is not really possible without introducing some form of ...errr... government.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 9:35 UTC (Mon) by accumulator (guest, #95885) [Link] (17 responses)

people just don't really use it for anything legitimate

I did. From ordering takeaway food, repaying friends I loaned money from and paying in bars and restaurants. Same goes for my bitcoin using friends.

if somebody steals your wallet it's GONE. You can't just go and dispute the fraudulent transactions on your bank's website

Banks can have a role here, just like they provided a role (long time ago) storing your gold. Bitcoin is gold-like in this context. You could CHOOSE to have a bank be your intermediairy and get the associated 'benefits'.

nobody really controls the amount of bitcoins in circulation

It's actually baked into the algorithm, which is defined by consensus. Besides, ever since banking went to fractional reserve banking the amount of money in circulation was getting less restricted, and after we left the gold-standard even more so. It was then that the boom-bust cycles appeared, with devastating effects.

solving these problems is not really possible without introducing some form of ...errr... government

Of these 3 'problems' you describe, 2 are not really problems. And w.r.t. criminal use, I guess you hate physical cash as much as bitcoin?

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 10:01 UTC (Mon) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link] (13 responses)

> I did. From ordering takeaway food, repaying friends I loaned money from and paying in bars and restaurants. Same goes for my bitcoin using friends.
Congratulations. You're an exception.

> It's actually baked into the algorithm, which is defined by consensus. Besides, ever since banking went to fractional reserve banking the amount of money in circulation was getting less restricted, and after we left the gold-standard even more so.
Yes, and that's a good feature. It allows to scale the amount of currency to the needs of the economy.

> It was then that the boom-bust cycles appeared, with devastating effects.
Actually, the first boom-bust cycles happened before even the official gold standard. Even before the US itself had been established.

> Of these 3 'problems' you describe, 2 are not really problems. And w.r.t. criminal use, I guess you hate physical cash as much as bitcoin?
Correct.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 11:58 UTC (Mon) by accumulator (guest, #95885) [Link] (12 responses)

> Congratulations. You're an exception.

Thousands of legitimate businesses disagree with you.

> Yes, and that's a good feature.

In theory. But in practice governments can't help themselves letting this get out of hand, every. single. time.

> Actually, the first boom-bust cycles happened before even the official gold standard

Yes, like I said, after the start of fractional reserve banking.

>> I guess you hate physical cash as much as bitcoin?
> Correct.

I admire your confidence in having a government with so much power.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 12:06 UTC (Mon) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link] (11 responses)

> Thousands of legitimate businesses disagree with you.
And hundreds of thousands of illegitimate businesses cheer with me! By a some estimates, the illicit businesses are responsible for more than 90% transactions.

> In theory. But in practice governments can't help themselves letting this get out of hand, every. single. time.
So why hasn't dollar hyperinflated? Or maybe yen or renminbi?

In reality, governments are now pretty good with managing inflation.

> Yes, like I said, after the start of fractional reserve banking.
So... Since some time in the Republic of Rome?

> I admire your confidence in having a government with so much power.
And I admire your naïviete. If government wanted to take your money, bitcoins wouldn't save you. And the correct approach is not to try and stockpile gold and canned food, but change the government.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 14:38 UTC (Mon) by accumulator (guest, #95885) [Link] (8 responses)

> illicit businesses are responsible for more than 90% transactions.

You can throw around statistics, but where's the proof? I highly doubt this number.

> So why hasn't dollar hyperinflated? Or maybe yen or renminbi?

It has, according to the austrian definition of inflation. But I'm sure you will counter with the Keynesian definition.
For a number of recent examples, just look at Argentina.

> And I admire your naïviete. If government wanted to take your money, bitcoins wouldn't save you. And the correct approach is not to try and stockpile gold and canned food, but change the government.

I'm not talking about bitcoin here (nor stockpiling stuff), but about physical cash. If you can't see the negative effects that abolishing physical cash could have, you're the naïve one.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 18:41 UTC (Mon) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link] (7 responses)

> You can throw around statistics, but where's the proof? I highly doubt this number.
It's a bit dated, from the middle of 2014. I'm searching for the report. Basically, it looked at the value of seized wallets and their transactions and compared it to the total value of transactions through legitimate payment processors.

> It has, according to the austrian definition of inflation. But I'm sure you will counter with the Keynesian definition.
Ah, yes. Austrian inflation is usually a GOOD thing.

I absolutely detest how Austrians latch on a scary term and redefine it completely. While still pretending that it still is scary even though it's redefined.

It's like calling "bitcoin" a "form of cancer". Why do you support cancer?

> For a number of recent examples, just look at Argentina.
Why not Zimbabwe? Or maybe the emperor Diocletian?

> I'm not talking about bitcoin here (nor stockpiling stuff), but about physical cash. If you can't see the negative effects that abolishing physical cash could have, you're the naïve one.
Cash serves little purpose other than for small transactions between individuals and small businesses. There's no real value in large cash transactions.

Denmark and Sweden are pretty much cashless these days, and I don't see death squads roaming the streets there.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 18:57 UTC (Mon) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (6 responses)

> > It has, according to the austrian definition of inflation. But I'm sure you will counter with the Keynesian
> >definition.

> Ah, yes. Austrian inflation is usually a GOOD thing.

What about UK inflation - as officially measured, it does not include house prices, so given that a typical house where I am (about 10 miles from the city centre) rents for £1100pm or so ($1500, per month, for a *small* three bed semi), inflation does not include the single biggest expenditure in a young person's profile. And if you move into the centre itself that probably wouldn't even get you a one-bed flat.

Surely it can't be good that we have an *un*regulated rental market, and the average house costs about TEN times the average salary ...

Cheers,
Wol

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 19:31 UTC (Mon) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link] (3 responses)

> What about UK inflation - as officially measured, it does not include house prices, so given that a typical house where I am (about 10 miles from the city centre) rents for £1100pm or so ($1500, per month, for a *small* three bed semi), inflation does not include the single biggest expenditure in a young person's profile. And if you move into the centre itself that probably wouldn't even get you a one-bed flat.
Inflation includes the average price over the whole country, but it misses the localized effects.

Oh, and Austrian inflation also doesn't take localized effects into account. You can very much have skyrocketing local prices even with generalized deflation.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 19:52 UTC (Mon) by clump (subscriber, #27801) [Link] (2 responses)

To your point, in the States, housing prices in San Francisco are very high. Inflation measurements in the States do include housing, and despite that inflation is still virtually non-existent.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 19, 2016 11:03 UTC (Tue) by Wol (subscriber, #4433) [Link] (1 responses)

How easy is it for you to reduce your housing costs, by moving further away and commuting? Actually, I gather commuting in the States isn't that easy ...

The thing is, it depends how "lumpy" house prices are. Here, we may have political initiatives to address it, but the fact is that most people under 40 simply can't afford to buy their own home, ANYWHERE. Okay, it's taken maybe 30 years to do it, but, relative to income!, house prices have trebled or more even in my own adult lifetime - my original starter home is probably now way out of reach for someone in the same position I was.

Cheers,
Wol

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 19, 2016 16:18 UTC (Tue) by raven667 (subscriber, #5198) [Link]

> How easy is it for you to reduce your housing costs, by moving further away and commuting? Actually, I gather commuting in the States isn't that easy ...

People complain about commuting but cities in the US have built out massive road networks for commuters. Using Chicago vs. London as an example, suburbs like Joliet or Schaumburg are at least as far away as the M25 around London and there are neighborhoods going out even further, as far as Milton Keynes and Bletchley is from London, Mundelein or Libertyville are still primarily commuter homes for the greater Chicago area.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 19:57 UTC (Mon) by rgmoore (✭ supporter ✭, #75) [Link]

What about UK inflation

The "Austrian" inflation he was talking about was as defined by the Austrian school of economics, not inflation in Austria. The Austrian school defines inflation in terms of increase in the monetary supply*, not as price inflation. It's a good, real-world example of what Thomas Kuhn was talking about when he said that people following different paradigms can't communicate with each other because they use the same term to mean different things.

*Strictly speaking, increase in the ratio of the broad monetary supply to the demand for money, so that there is no inflation if the monetary supply increases with the economy as a whole.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 19, 2016 18:58 UTC (Tue) by markhb (guest, #1003) [Link]

Heh... I'm in a small city in the US (which many of the people in the country would consider "a small town in the boondocks"), which happens to be trendy at the moment. Our newspaper recently did a series and found that 2 BR w/ utilities rentals in the city were averaging nearly $1600/month. Note that that includes heat, which is important where I am. Large cities like Boston and Philadelphia are worse, and forget about the nexuses of insanity that are Manhattan and the San Francisco peninsula.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 15:23 UTC (Mon) by spaetz (guest, #32870) [Link] (1 responses)

> And hundreds of thousands of illegitimate businesses cheer with me! By a some estimates, the illicit businesses are responsible for more than 90% transactions.

I know that the tourism industry is somewhat fishy, but calling expedia (http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/11/expedia-now-accepts-bitc...) and thousands of travel agencies (https://blog.bitpay.com/partnering-with-ypsilon/) illicit businesses is somewhat strong ;-P.

Let me trump yours: Here is my estimate: 92% of all cash transactions are funneled through illicit businesses.
There you go: By some estimates, the illicite bussines are responsible for more than 91% of all cash transactions. Beat that :)

That having said, I bought bitcoins when they were at $0.03 and got cold feet when they were at $1, I have no horse in this race. They won't go away, but they will never replace the greenback. I find it interesting though that many people are not really aware how they work and what the drawbacks will be. E.g. they are not necessarily free (http://bitcoinfees.com/ explains it well) and can beat credit card fees at times.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 18:12 UTC (Mon) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link]

Do you have problems with logic? The fact that there are SOME legitimate businesses does not mean that most of the transactions are legal.

The state of Bitcoin is summed up here: http://www.coindesk.com/5-facts-from-the-q3-2015-state-of...

> Let me trump yours: Here is my estimate: 92% of all cash transactions are funneled through illicit businesses. There you go: By some estimates, the illicite bussines are responsible for more than 91% of all cash transactions. Beat that :)
Let's eliminate cash, then.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 11:43 UTC (Mon) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link] (2 responses)

You're wrong, boom-bust cycles have been seen in economies long before countries detached currency from precious metals. There are at least as many ways for boom-bust cycles to exist as there are things that humans can speculatively value - which is a vast array of goods and services, including loans and expected returns, and even plants bulbs (see Netherlands and tulips). Even currencies attached to precious goods (e.g. metals like gold or silver) can be affected by speculation on the expected supply of those goods, and unforeseen events like the discovery of new supplies (e.g. the likes of Spain and other European countries went through a huge boom when they discovered the 'new world, and found new supplies of gold - devaluing the existing stock significantly over time).

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 14:23 UTC (Mon) by accumulator (guest, #95885) [Link] (1 responses)

> You're wrong, boom-bust cycles have been seen in economies long before countries detached currency from precious metals. There are at least as many ways for boom-bust cycles to exist as there are things that humans can speculatively value

Please read. I didn't say boom-bust cycles started when the gold standard was let go. And yes, there can be bubbles (as opposed to cycles) in non-monetary assets, but that's speculation, and discretionary. It is entirely different if the boom-bust cycle is happening in the medium of exchange.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 18:59 UTC (Mon) by clump (subscriber, #27801) [Link]

Please read. I didn't say boom-bust cycles started when the gold standard was let go.
You're telling others to read?
Besides, ever since banking went to fractional reserve banking the amount of money in circulation was getting less restricted, and after we left the gold-standard even more so. It was then that the boom-bust cycles appeared, with devastating effects.
If you're trolling, mission accomplished.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Feb 3, 2016 23:37 UTC (Wed) by Rudd-O (guest, #61155) [Link] (3 responses)

There are so many factual errors in your post, it's hard to begin arguing against it.

No, most bitcoins are not used for criminal activity. They are used as a store of value, use case that is first only to its second: legal commerce. All of those are *legitimate* uses.

You are not totally wrong here -- there is absolutely a demonstrable and substantial (even if minor) illegal use of Bitcoin. You clearly see that as a bug due to your bias for obedience stemming from your political indoctrination (which you've made very obvious, and entirely gratuitously, at the expense of the S/N ratio of this comments section).

You know what else is used, much more often, to trade drugs and other contraband? Dollars. Far more than Bitcoin, in fact. Why not go rant somewhere else about all of those illegals illegally trading in illegal disobedience your political rulers while using dollars? Post to reddit.com/r/politics where your post will be received with open arms into the circlejerk of obedience.

Yes, cash has this problem where, if you're pickpocketed, the cash is gone. Irreversible transactions have their advantages and disadvantages, and therefore they have their good use cases and their bad use cases. The fact that *you don't like* others having the option of using something you don't find appealing, doesn't mean said something is bad. It just means you're intolerant of others' decisions.

Another fiction in your post, easily proven wrong: everyone participating in the Bitcoin network algorithmically and precisely controls the amount of bitcoins available for circulation. If you wanted to disabuse yourself of this fourth erroneous notion, all you'd have to do is read a file of C++.

The fact that Bitcoin is subject to relatively large swings in price has nothing to do with how many coins have been produced. It's simply a byproduct of it being young, just like many other businesses and technologies whose value fluctuates stochastically as they gain or lose adoption. Your argumentation here is no different from demanding that a toddler perfectly pronounce "water" before handing him a water bottle, and when the toddler dies of thirst, you exclaiming "See? That thing was so stupid! LOL!" No, the kid's not an idiot -- you're just being unreasonable within the confines of your double standards.

All in all, the things you call "problems" are just fine, growth continues to the point that last year Bitcoin did better than all other asset classes. Also, no thanks, the network is already governed by math.

You are not the first person to repeatedly inject shitty "Bitcoin is doomed because it doesn't work how my obviously true political opinions say things ought to work" dogmatism into a convo about Bitcoin. You won't be the last. But at least spare us your political doctrines -- we don't come here to hopscotch around them.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Feb 4, 2016 0:12 UTC (Thu) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link] (2 responses)

> No, most bitcoins are not used for criminal activity. They are used as a store of value, use case that is first only to its second: legal commerce. All of those are *legitimate* uses.
So, it's kinda like stockpiling heroin?

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Feb 4, 2016 8:59 UTC (Thu) by Rudd-O (guest, #61155) [Link] (1 responses)

Snark is a tell for cognitive dissonance.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Feb 4, 2016 18:36 UTC (Thu) by Cyberax (✭ supporter ✭, #52523) [Link]

And attacks on the tone of the message usually mean that the author has no ideas how to reply.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 3:10 UTC (Mon) by bojan (subscriber, #14302) [Link] (3 responses)

> Blah blah blah "you're so wrong Jon..."

I was actually thinking the opposite - how right you are. :-)

The whole Bitcoin thing always struck me as a kind of a casino type currency: play and hope for the best. Also, the whole concept of being rewarded for burning CPU cycles is very Second Life-esque - paying for things that aren't real. Bizarre...

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 9:37 UTC (Mon) by roblucid (guest, #48964) [Link] (2 responses)

What bit coins are buying, is a proportionate share of the ledger. Currencies retain value through some scarcity eg) Gold & Silver, in bit coin the "proof of work", adding a nonce which is used to find a crypto hash to begin with many zeros and seals the block chain ledger. It has to be hard, or transactions could be faked, altering the ledger and finding a new nonce/hash which looked correct before the correct block is "mined" legitimately. Maintaining a copy of the ledger & sealing transactions need an incentive, hence rewards for coins "mining" and (small) transaction fees when a block is validated. The miners are actually preventing fraud by confirming and sealing transactions, having a copy of the open transaction ledger for perusal (the block chain).

Unfortunately, miners can get a reward for empty transaction blocks, which does not do useful work and wastes energy & carbon emissions. Also distributing the whole block chain to every node becomes more and more inefficient.

To scale, some sort of hierarchy like NTP or DNS, imposed socially to have independantly run ledger copies, with mining rewards also distributed to pay for this service would be required, plus having transactions for independant wallets being verified in parallel in each confirmation window, that is multiple streams of transaction confirmations for wallets A, B, C & D which are making payments.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 12:07 UTC (Mon) by bojan (subscriber, #14302) [Link] (1 responses)

I know this is the technical explanation, but that accountants are all of a sudden these all powerful masters of universe, capable of creating money, still sounds totally bizarre to me. Maybe I'm just old fashioned...

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 18, 2016 16:55 UTC (Mon) by pboddie (guest, #50784) [Link]

I must be old-fashioned, too. The explanation posted above is possibly the most coherent one I've read in any summary, with most references to Bitcoin involving the hateful (and dated) "cyber" prefix glued onto "currency", pushing all the shallow journalistic buttons about alternatives to the mainstream, "anarchic groups", radicals and "free-thinkers".

But cut through the hype and you're left with something that...

  • Isn't widely accepted, relative to other well-known means of payment... Diners Club cards excluded. ;-)
  • Has fluctuated significantly and rapidly in value for non-obvious reasons.
  • Seems to involve doing business with organisations that even people with enthusiasm for the concept might have little familiarity with, meaning that random people are unlikely to trust the whole thing at all.

It might have been attractive for an individual to speculate on Bitcoin - there's even something sounding like that written in another comment here, and there are new stories about people who did well early on - but few ordinary individuals are likely to be successfully speculating on traditional currencies. Meanwhile, to retailers and the average person, any additional currency (traditional or not) can be a significant risk that is best eliminated if it appears a likely target for speculation. Just ask all the people who took out Swiss Franc loans over the years to get better borrowing rates than in their local currency.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 19, 2016 6:29 UTC (Tue) by linuxrocks123 (guest, #34648) [Link] (4 responses)

---
The dollar works because of the United States government, military, nukes, and so on.
---

The dollar works because it's well-stewarded by the Federal Reserve and because the US economy generally is healthy, so people want to buy stuff from it. The US military has nothing to do with it, except to the extent it's protecting the US economy (and it's way overkill for that).

The euro works slightly less well because it's slightly less well-stewarded by the ECB because of intra-EU political drama. Not because the EU has fewer nukes.

The ruble sucks because the Russian economy is unstabe, and maybe also because the RCB sucks but I don't know if that's true. Russia has nukes; they're not helping much.

Bitcoin can work as a currency only if people want to buy things from the "Bitcoin economy" -- if it's easier to use Bitcoins to buy goods and services than the alternative. It doesn't work because it's hilariously inefficient by design -- like, as inefficient as the dollar would be if the raw materials to make a dollar cost $1 -- and because its decentralized nature means its monetary policy is nonexistent and so it's subject to hyperinflation and hyperdeflation at a level that would destroy any real economy based on it.

90% of the current value for Bitcoin is probably tulipmania and 9.9% is probably the underground drug market. The last 0.1% is techno-anarchist-libertarian-Randian whatevers.

---
Blah blah blah "you're so wrong Jon..."

Except I'm not. But sure, tell me how wrong I am.
---

This condescending demonstration of the Dunning-Kruger effect brought to you by the "N" in "SNR"!

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 20, 2016 13:54 UTC (Wed) by markhb (guest, #1003) [Link] (3 responses)

Here's a column on the subject and the Hearn article, by an American leftist (relative to the US political spectrum): http://www.theweek.com/articles/600099/decline-bitcoin-sh... .

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Jan 23, 2016 5:40 UTC (Sat) by marcH (subscriber, #57642) [Link]

Nice. From it:
> All this shouldn't take away from the real genius of the block chain idea and implementation. It could be potentially transformative. But the Bitcoin failure does illustrate that human institutions must have politics in addition to technical expertise. Try to engineer around politics, and it will flood back in the most atavistic and unscrupulous forms.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Feb 3, 2016 23:46 UTC (Wed) by Rudd-O (guest, #61155) [Link] (1 responses)

A leftist insisting that without everyone obeying and groveling to Mommy and Daddy things would be chaos? Mild shock.

Despit Hearn's flipping of the tables prior to going to work for Big Finance, Bitcoin seems to be doing fairly well. Last year it outstripped other asset classes. People use it every day. The numerous lies that Hearn wrote in his post have been refuted by people better than him, including Bram Cohen himself.

Bitcoin definitely has politics hard-coded in the protocol. It just doesn't have the politics that leftists (or rightists!) would like to force onto everyone else against their will.

For some "mysterious" reason, that seems to chafe the privates of the leftists (and the rightists).

I quite like that.

Hearn: The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment

Posted Feb 10, 2016 20:51 UTC (Wed) by nix (subscriber, #2304) [Link]

Warning: your bias is showing. Oh is it ever showing.


Copyright © 2026, Eklektix, Inc.
Comments and public postings are copyrighted by their creators.
Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds