Microsoft Loses to Linux in Thailand Struggle (LinuxInsider) [LWN.net]

LinuxInsider has posted an article on growing Linux sales in Thailand. "Significantly, first-time PC users in Thailand are finding the Linux Thai Language Edition easier to master than Windows."

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notes on Linux in Thailand

Posted Nov 12, 2003 17:04 UTC (Wed) by ccyoung (guest, #16340) [Link] (10 responses)

Despite the articles rosy hues, Linux plurality is an uphill battle. here's why:

Systems shipped with Linux: Most systems are bought bare bone - MS was not able to require systems be shipped with an OS as it has in the US - and the local vendor installs whatever MS he has in the shop. Many manufactured systems are shipped with Linux as a test system, with the expectations that the OS will be replaced before delivery to the customer.

The main PC users are gamers. An internet shop is a game shop. nationwide, probably 50% of active users are gamers. The games are *not* Linux. And the gamers are the base of future users. Until Linux is able to win over gamers, Linux will have a tenuous foothold in the future.

Reliability: the Thai are used to things breaking. The MS blue screen of death doesn't bother them. Having had no experience outside of MS, they are used to the idea their systems will be hacked and killed. It's the way it is.

Thailand has been sponsering Linux for some time. A school can buy a CD for $4 that will serve as an internet host as well as keep school records &tc. The Nation (newspaper) runs a weekle feature on Linux, eg, a hospital moving to Linux, bootstrapping off public domain and using in-house programmers, the whole project completed for $250,000. *But* this type of support is seen as stodgy. If a corporation wants to be seen as cool and leading edge, it uses MS - almost opposite of the US.

And Thai users are used to getting software for free - hundreds of titles. Only with MS clamping down on registrations (as on XP) will the software not be free, with the result that Linux' success in Thailand is directly proportional to MS success in forcing its licensing on the Thai.

The bookstores and training are over 90% MS. (If someone finances me I would happily teach Linux/Web in Thailand for a few year.)

The way business works in Thailand, with patronage and payola: it's very difficult for new consulting firms, using new technology, to have an impact on the business community. And to suggest to an IT manager that he might use another system would infer that currently he is using the *wrong* system - this would make him lose face, and you will never do business with him again. Lastly, many (if not most) companies are owned by Chinese families, with all management positions given to family members, and with a (well deserved) reputation of squeezing blood out of a turnip - doing business with these organizations is an almost impossible way to grow your consulting business.

Conclusion: The normal advantages of Linux over MS -- pricing, reliability, and sexiness -- are lost in Thailand. The new and future users, the gamers, deal with no other system but MS. And with a dirth of documentation and training for Linux, added to overwhelming difficulty for middle-tier consulting firms, mean few seeds of success are being sown.

fud fud fud

Posted Nov 12, 2003 20:22 UTC (Wed) by coriordan (guest, #7544) [Link] (9 responses)

What a load of nonsense.

The price of GNU/Linux, current and future, is good for poorer countries.
It maintains the economic independence of their nation.
They can become system developers.
They can't be ignored because of inability to pay for stuff.
They can learn from the system, not just use/consume it.
They can verify the security and lack of backdoors.
They can translate any software package they want.
etc. etc. etc.

Games are not nearly as important as you say. We'll have games someday, but lack of games can never be a reason not to use GNU/Linux in public administration, business, or educations sectors.

The goal is to give freedom to computer users. This won't be achieved this year, it's taken almost twenty years to get as far as we have. It'll take another twenty years to secure our place and reach the masses.

(this is a 2 minute post, I can't stop for a long thread but the obvious gaping holes in your post had to be pointed out)

You are being soooo nice to ccyoung...

Posted Nov 12, 2003 21:17 UTC (Wed) by hummassa (guest, #307) [Link] (2 responses)

come on, The main PC users are gamers.??????
I will refrain to comment further.

You are being soooo nice to ccyoung...

Posted Nov 12, 2003 21:46 UTC (Wed) by XERC (guest, #14626) [Link]

And what plathform does the serious workforce, scientists, office
clerks, designers(both: art and engineering), accauntance, librarians, use? OK, scientists are a kind
of gamers, because puting up a cluster and doing image recongnition, control system development, artificial intelligance, 3D modelling, algorithm development, etc, does not differ much of a game
development(hence my appriciation to games as tough simulators), but the rest of the mass does not use PDA's, sun's expensive workstations or Mac's(let's exclude artists and musicians this time), networked coffy machines or networked refrigerators that extensively, or do they?

You are being soooo nice to ccyoung...

Posted Nov 13, 2003 8:10 UTC (Thu) by Ajarn (guest, #8521) [Link]

I am very much afraid that I have to agree with ccyoung.
I am a teacher here, and I can see what is going on.
They all have a PC, because Daddy buys one for them, for education.
And all they do, is playing games.

You don't believe it. Well , come to Thailand, and live here for a year.
Then you know.!!!!!

re: fud fud fud

Posted Nov 12, 2003 22:13 UTC (Wed) by ccyoung (guest, #16340) [Link]

I think you're missing the point of my post.

I absolutely agree with you on everything, from price to etc etc. I personally agree with you on games, but what I have personally observed is that with the majority (today) of the youth in Thailand computers equate to gaming.

I also agree with you that in twenty years Linux will win the war - I happen think ten, but not five. And the reasons for not five are as I posted.

My point is that the original article, while accurate in fact, would lead one to be somewhat too optimistic. I certainly wasn't attempting to fud or in any other way denegrate Linux (ask my friends) - I was simply trying to clarify the situation as I saw it and to show what I thought were the obstacles to overcome. (I also think that China is adapting Linux (or an Asian spawned OS) very quickly, and that this will probably have a huge impact on moving the rest of Thailand to Linux.)

The price of GNU/Linux is good ?

Posted Nov 13, 2003 2:38 UTC (Thu) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (4 responses)

Come on! Do you really think price is good for poorer countries ? Really ? Not jocking ? You mean... really... gosh...

Here is priceing in my country:
    "Desktop Server bundle" - $2.
        Contents:
            Windows 2003 Server Enterprise
            Windows 2003 Server Standard
            Windows 2003 Server Web
    "Desktop Windows bundle" - $2.
        Contents:
            Windows XP Proffesional
            Windows 98 Second Edition
            Windows Millenium Edition
    "Windows 2000 bundle" - $2.
        Contents:
            Windows 2000 Proffesional
            Windows 2000 Server
            Windows 2000 Advanced Server
            Windows 2000 Datacenter Server
    "RedHat Linux 9" - $5.
    "Debian GNU/Linux 3" - $10.

Now the big question: what's more expensive ? Clearly Linux is. Why so ? Answer is obvious: there more CDs. Only one CD for "Windows bundles", three for RedHat (only binary CDs, of course, no offer of source or even link to ftp.redhat.com), seven CDs for Debian (with some discount for so many CDs included for RedHat and Debian).

Yes, it's not legal, yes, it's piracy. 90% users do not care. They do care about support. They know there are plenty of firms who'll help with Windows (for price, obviously - $2 does not include any support as you can guess). There much less firms where you can ask questions about Linux.

So no, guys. At least pricing argument goes out the window in poor countries. Simple there Windows is actually cheaper then Linux.

Of course for Windows you need MS Office - $2 more (usually only first disk is ever duplicated). Still it's cheaper then Linux. And yes, people are content with BSOD: they do not know anything else. For them BSOD is how computers are designed, not something to talk about.

I've seed as some guy complained about "total rip-off" - Sonic Scenarist NT 2.7 for $7 two weeks after release. And you know what ? He was right: two weeks later it was possible to buy it for "standard" $2

Situation in Thailand is probably the same - just "standard price" per CD is probably lower. Still the principle is the same: Linux is clearly more expensive there: more CDs - more money

Yes, some firms were raided and now Linux is usually what installed on PC (that - or PTSDOS). Not to be used but to be replaced by the same firms who will help you to tune your Windows. That's how far this concern gone. Yes, there are some major firms (Lukoil and some other) where all software is not pirated. There are even some small firms (usually offsprings of western companies) where everything is legal. Still for majority of population Windows is $2 and Linux $5 or more

Re: The price of GNU/Linux is good ?

Posted Nov 13, 2003 2:51 UTC (Thu) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link]

Hate to reply on my own post but...

...there are changes. While most Linuxes are more expensive then Windows here (more CDs == more expensive, it's that simple) at least they are there to buy. RedHat, SuSe, Mandrake, Debian, Lindows - your choice. Lindows is least expensive, Debian most expensive (number of CDs, remember?), but it's there. So Linux is expanding here. Just not very fast. And yes, games are important. Also important "1C book-keeping" (does not work with WINE since WINE does not support neither Win9X's "HASP Emulator" not WinNT's "HASP Emulator"), Garant Database (law database - the same problems with "HASP Emulator") and so on. All tools are Windows-only so far.

The price of GNU/Linux is good ?

Posted Nov 13, 2003 3:54 UTC (Thu) by coriordan (guest, #7544) [Link] (2 responses)

This is the old "Free cigarettes for students" marketing idea.

Get a country hooked in it's early (computer-)development stages, make sure MS Windows becomes the national standard, then they start demanding that the bigger firms pay licenses, then the smaller firms, then the people.

They lock people in with file formats and user-experience. The $2 cost of M$ Windows is nothing compared to the investment people put into the monopoly through usage. Free Software will much (much, much, etc.) cheaper in the long run.

And remember, when license fees begin to be enforced, it's money leaving the poorer country, going to the US. Microsoft is *letting* countries pirate MS Windows, they can pull in the reins whenever they want. US govt. trade pressure and the WTO will make sure that countries comply.

National govts. should be acting against this by encouraging the use of Free Software. Until this happens, people need to take matters into their own hands, and they need to tell the govt. about this problem.

The price of GNU/Linux is good ?

Posted Nov 13, 2003 7:36 UTC (Thu) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (1 responses)

US govt. trade pressure and the WTO will make sure that countries comply.

Heh. The big question is when.

I've heard this talks about pressure and compliance for 10 years now. Nothing is really changed. Both films and software is out two weeks after release: films for $4 per DVD or so, CD with software - $2 (in some places slightly more). Oh, no, I forgot: now the same firms who are distributing copies for $2 are distributing also copies for $30 and $20000 (I do not know for the fact that it's the same firm but I know for the fact that number of batch on CDs/DVDs is the same). Of course firms regularly claims they were hijacked - but somehow noone can find who did it! The same with software licenses: Ok, now computer makers can not install Windows (there are raids and so on). Ok, they sell you comp with PTSDOS or Linux and paper with phone of firm who'll install you Windows for the same $2 (if you are to unexpirienced to to it yourself - of course in this case you'll not get nice shiny CD, but it's not such a big need if you do not know how to install Windows from said CD). Thay can even give you paper to show in court as "prof of purchase" ! Of course it'll be revealed there that thay had no right to give you such a paper - but who cares ? You do not need to worry till actual need and even then you need only to remove Windows and next day call to install new copy with new paper.

There are big difference between "cigarettes for students". The difference is that almost no one else wants to stop it and sell you cigaretes for some "real money". The only obvious exception is Microsoft subsidary. Yes, sure some laws are introduced to "stop piracy". But no one really think it's laws to be respected. This is just some play for "big boys". Flick. That's what it is. Thus raids with obligatory notification of sellers few hours (at least) before fact and so on. When almost every person who's not in police thinks it's his responsibility to prevent "this stupidity" and policy is doing it only since they are forced to do it while "deep in their soul" they know "it's not right" there are very little what you can do.

While I myself may use Linux and do not need to cover my friends who use Windows I'm pretty sure I will not go and will not say that someone is using pirated version of Windows if I have any way to avoid it. It's very hard to do anything in country where it's the most loyal view of software copyright and most typical view is "copyright is something developed by americans to suck our money and we need to cope with this @#&*#$*!@& as much as we can".

Country goverment can do only so much without any populace help and with only very reluctant help from police (they do only as much as then need to do to comply with letter of law and could care less about what they really supposed to do). Especially when half of that some goverment share this view and not voice it only since they know it'll disaster for their carier. To change this you'll need years and years. It's not matter of just changing of laws. That's not enough. You need to change mindset before it actually will work. Because after 10 years only very few even huge companies are truly compliant - most just have papers who are too hard to prove illegal.

The price of GNU/Linux is good ?

Posted Nov 13, 2003 14:32 UTC (Thu) by coriordan (guest, #7544) [Link]

First, thanks for describing the situation to me.

> The big question is when.

Sadly, I think the answer is "whenever they think the time is right". In Korea, copying the work of an author was seen as a compliment, encouraged by the government, until the US Trade Representative but Korea on the 301 "Watch list". This is a list of countries where the US is concerned about "Intellectual property" enforcement. When a country goes on the watch list, the International Monetary Fund don't roll over their loans, the World Bank stop loaning them money, and the US Govt. raises it's import barriers. This can cripple a developing economy instantly. And it's all legal since the World Trade Organisation has already tricked these countries into promising to enforce "Intellectual Property" regulations.

> I will not go and will not say that someone
> is using pirated version of Windows

This is good. Copying software should not be a crime, I wouldn't like anyone to go to prison or be fined for it. Also, it's sad that a developing country should be using the peoples taxes to enforce these stupid laws.

> copyright is something developed by americans to suck our money

This is true (for the current version of software copyright). Using GNU/Linux and FreeBSD etc. is a way to take this power away from them.

By using Free Software, a country can stick two fingers up at Microsft & associates, and no one can accuse them of not enforcing copyright.

Moving to Free Software will indeed take years, but every step towards Free Software is lessening the copyright problem. Using Microsoft (or any other proprietary software) is like trying to dig your way out of a pit.

I'm trying to get the govt. to use Free Software in my country. Most representatives I talk to are useless, but some of them do understand Free Software and are really interested.

Microsoft Loses to Linux in Thailand Struggle (LinuxInsider)

Posted Nov 12, 2003 20:50 UTC (Wed) by pjs (guest, #10927) [Link]

When slashdot linked to Inforworld's coverage in May, Infoworld quoted IDC senior research analyst Bryan Ma, saying:

"This could make Microsoft tremble in its boots," Ma said. "What you've got is a blank canvas in which the user can paint any color he wishes whether that's officially licensed Microsoft software or pirated software."

The infoworld article also claimed linux "could bring about support issues". Along with other comments anti-linux comments, Infoworld wrote "that doesn't mean that other emerging markets in the region will necessarily jump on the Linux bandwagon".

Admittedly, today's story is written by LinuxInsider, they quote not IDC but Gartner, the other conservative research company that's long stood behind Microsoft, but ultimately publishes what the common conservative sentiment of the day happens to be (because that's what "executives" are willing to buy).

Now the story is completely different.

Rather than preloaded linux being a "blank canvas" worthy of only deletion to may way for pirated Microsoft Windows, Garner says:

While some buyers still will install pirated copies of Microsoft's software, Gartner estimates that 70 percent of Thai consumers will stick with Linux, citing freely available software, lower prices and lack of knowledge among first-time PC owners.

The FUD of "support issues" has turned into "the Thai edition of Linux is easier to learn than Windows".

But best of all, IDC's believe that others won't "jump on the Linux bandwagon" has magically turned into "Thai PC Market My Change Global Windows Landscape" (Gartner's report title, not LinuxInsider's opinon).

Yeah, admittedly IDC and Gartner aren't the same people.

Microsoft Loses to Linux in Thailand Struggle (LinuxInsider)

Posted Nov 13, 2003 15:28 UTC (Thu) by ibukanov (subscriber, #3942) [Link]

Note about piracy and XP activation:

In Belarus you can get for 2.5 USD per CD for corporate versions of Windows and Office XP that just require to enter license code without any activation. The activation code is in readme file with detailed installation instructions in Russian and also conveniently placed on a sticker that comes with CD.

I can guess it is much more easy to use such CDs then the official ones costing hundreds of backs that needs activation over phone and potentially another one whenever the computer is upgraded.

Needless to say Linux in Belarus is non-existent and it is almost impossible to find Linux CDs there.