In 3 to 5 years either Android or ChromeOS will be ready to take over the desktop—and if they'll take over then Ubuntu will die in 10-15 years. RedHat is not in danger because neither Android nor ChromeOS make much sense on a server but Ubuntu is in grave danger. Yet GNOME/KDE/Wayland developers are acting as if they have all the time in the world. Thus I can understand the frustration which brought up Mir project, but I'm just not sure this way Canonical will be able to offer something usable faster.
That's a pretty interesting point of view, but I believe that you're wrong.
In 10-15 years time I'm certain that the traditional desktop will be replaced by tablets for most of the «casual PC users», say about 90-95 percent of the current desktop users. But there will probably still be a minority who needs the power of a desktop system, a good keyboard and a big screen. This group will to a large extent correlate with the creators of the contents that the casual users consume.
I don't believe that these «power users» will ever want to replace their desktop with a version of Android, ChromeOS, or Unity. They will want a full-fledged desktop like the present KDE, OS/X, or maybe even Windows if that will exist 10-15 years from now. You see, we power users want a desktop that accomodates our workflow, with 10-20 applications open at the same time, and a taskbar (or something) to select between them.
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