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Attitude towards Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy…

Attitude towards Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy…

Posted Oct 19, 2013 22:36 UTC (Sat) by leifbk (subscriber, #35665)
In reply to: Attitude towards Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy… by khim
Parent article: Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy…

In 3 to 5 years either Android or ChromeOS will be ready to take over the desktop—and if they'll take over then Ubuntu will die in 10-15 years. RedHat is not in danger because neither Android nor ChromeOS make much sense on a server but Ubuntu is in grave danger. Yet GNOME/KDE/Wayland developers are acting as if they have all the time in the world. Thus I can understand the frustration which brought up Mir project, but I'm just not sure this way Canonical will be able to offer something usable faster.

That's a pretty interesting point of view, but I believe that you're wrong.

In 10-15 years time I'm certain that the traditional desktop will be replaced by tablets for most of the «casual PC users», say about 90-95 percent of the current desktop users. But there will probably still be a minority who needs the power of a desktop system, a good keyboard and a big screen. This group will to a large extent correlate with the creators of the contents that the casual users consume.

I don't believe that these «power users» will ever want to replace their desktop with a version of Android, ChromeOS, or Unity. They will want a full-fledged desktop like the present KDE, OS/X, or maybe even Windows if that will exist 10-15 years from now. You see, we power users want a desktop that accomodates our workflow, with 10-20 applications open at the same time, and a taskbar (or something) to select between them.


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Attitude towards Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy…

Posted Oct 20, 2013 0:10 UTC (Sun) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link]

I don't believe that these «power users» will ever want to replace their desktop with a version of Android, ChromeOS, or Unity.

Sure, but why do you think it'll make any difference to the outcome?

They will want a full-fledged desktop like the present KDE, OS/X, or maybe even Windows if that will exist 10-15 years from now.

Really? Have you looked on OS/X and/or Windows lately? They try very hard to merge experience of OS/X with iOS and Windows with Windows Phone. KDE may or may not offer experience similar to what you have today, but if all major browsers will go away, if all the productivity suites, CADs and other specialized programs will go away… they will have no choice. I'm pretty sure many hardware designers preferred SGI Indigo to cheap Dell computers, but when AutoCard dropped IRIX support… they had no choice but to switch to Windows, right?

You see, we power users want a desktop that accomodates our workflow, with 10-20 applications open at the same time, and a taskbar (or something) to select between them.

Right. And that's why Android's PC offers remote with separate button which can do exactly that. Sure, experience today is not as smooth as it's on the KDE or GNOME, but it's surprisingly usable already and if such devices will become popular both Android itself and Android programs will be adjusted to work fine in this environment.

It's relatively easy to add some gimmicks to Android (like Samsung's multiview) but it's much harder to convince application writers to target new platform. That's where 10-15 years are coming from: undoubtedly there will be many holdouts which will keep established desktop platforms alive (old UNIX workstations have died off just four years ago, believe it or not), but they will become “dying off dinosaurs” relatively quickly (again: just like it happened with UNIX workstations).

Attitude towards Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy…

Posted Oct 20, 2013 1:05 UTC (Sun) by rahvin (subscriber, #16953) [Link]

I don't believe that these «power users» will ever want to replace their desktop with a version of Android, ChromeOS, or Unity.
Go look on Amazon at their top selling laptops. You will find a chromebook in the top 5. Last I looked it was number one. Number one selling laptop from the largest internet retailer. Techies (including me) keep writing off chromebook but the sales speak otherwise. Apparently there are lot of people that don't care about windows.

Attitude towards Shuttleworth: Quantal, raring, saucy…

Posted Oct 20, 2013 16:47 UTC (Sun) by jengelh (subscriber, #33263) [Link]

>In 10-15 years time I'm certain that the traditional desktop will be replaced by tablets for most of the «casual PC users», say about 90-95 percent

Well, even in Star Trek's 24th century, they still have the 13" notebooks, PADD tablets don't entirely take over, certainly not to 95%. :)

In fact, I would rather predict that tablets will die out. Netbooks become lighter, screenfoldable and touchable, so that ultimately, they will swallow up tablets, and the choice which gadget to carry around boils down to screen size, i.e. volume you are willing to carry. A mobile can disappear in your pocket, but a tablet/netbook does not.


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