That's my point, though — it's not true that "In 15-20 years you [won't] need desktop distro", you'll just be running it on a different type of hardware.
I doubt it. You'll run smartphone distro (most likely Android, although there some small possibility that something like Tizen will take it's place) with some desktop addons.
It's really funny: when Linux (the kernel) filled all the niches (except for desktop) there was hope that eventually it'll manage to conquer that, too - and that desktop-distribution-developed technologies (DPK/APT, RPM, etc) will be vital in this process. IOW: full GNU/Linux OS (not just Linux kernel!) will win. Instead Linux managed to conquer all the niches (except for the server) only when it dropped this GNU/Linux desktop baggage! I was kind of confused by that (I mean: what makes server special?) but when Rob Landley pointed out that servers are basically "final resting places" for all obsolete technologoes (mainframes, minicomputers-turned-big-iron-UNIX-servers, then microcomputers-turned-PC-Linux-servers, etc) it finally started to make sense. And if he's right (and he's most likely right) then desktop distributions are dying: sure we'll use something superficially similar to today's desktop but it'll not use most technologies which are used by today's desktop! Intead it'll reuse some pieces of code to create brand-spanking-new implementation which will only superficially similar to what we use today. Similarly to how Windows is only superfically similar to RISC workstations.
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