Even in the current generation of ultrabooks SSDs and rotating HDDs are split in similar proportions -- HDDs retain the majority in my latest completely unscientific survey. Perhaps in 4 years SSDs will displace HDDs in the high end, and in 8 years in the low end. Then give it some 4 more years to have a reasonable replacement of the existing base, and I will say that a considerable proportion of laptops will have rotating disks until at least 2025. I certainly hope that tux3 reaches the mainline before that.
This may look like a very long time, but please look at the facts. Standard SSDs are 128 GB, while standard HDDs are 500 GB. Apple e.g. overcharges €300 to have a 256 GB SDD, and €800 for 512 GB; street prices for the latter are at least €300~800. I assume the most expensive disks are worth their higher price in reliability, as in HDDs there is no appreciable price difference. People often need those 500 GB and will buy an external HDD if the internal SSD cannot have them, moving the spinning rust outside the main unit but not eliminating it.
Best case, Moore's Law would suggest a 1/2 price drop every 1.5 years, so it would take about 6 years for SSDs to reach current HDD prices. And HDDs are also getting better all the time, so in 6 years we would probably be looking at 1 GB HDDs as the standard. Say in 7.5 years SSDs reach price parity with HDDs; still it would take an upgrade cycle to remove all the legacy HDDs, which we can optimistically set to 4 years. Again, 12 years.
And this is just in the first world...
Copyright © 2017, Eklektix, Inc.
Comments and public postings are copyrighted by their creators.
Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds