LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space [LWN.net]

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 22, 2012 19:25 UTC (Sat) by dlang (guest, #313)
In reply to: LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space by khim
Parent article: LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

what means have any countries shown that would prevent satellites from being destroyed?

I've heard of means to destroy satellites, but not ways to prevent their destruction by another space-capable nation.

monitoring is not defence, it may be the first part of a defence, but in and of itself it's not defence.

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LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 23, 2012 17:38 UTC (Sun) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (8 responses)

what means have any countries shown that would prevent satellites from being destroyed?

Nothing—a that's my point.

I think you've lost context. Let me remind you what I've already said: All the worthwhile targets (machines and humans, most importantly troops) are on the ground. This is what defines what is offense and what is defense.

This is similar to air fights: a fighter aircraft may be air-to-air aggressor, but it's very much part of the defense system, not part of the offense system. Because it's useless if you don't have an air-to-surface aggressor (or surface-to-surface aggressor with on-air helper).

Similarly in space: the ability to find and destroy satellite is part of defense system because satellite on it's own it's not a worthwhile goal. It only becomes worthwhile goal if someone else uses it to attack your troops! Heck, the most famous space war program was called Strategic Defense Initiative for this very reason!

I've heard of means to destroy satellites, but not ways to prevent their destruction by another space-capable nation.

Bingo! And that means exactly what I've said: space offence is hard, space defense is [relatively] easy.

Monitoring is not defence, it may be the first part of a defence, but in and of itself it's not defence.

Right. The second part of the defense is the ability to destroy satellites (including the ones who employ ion drives to move rocks around). Also a known technology

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 24, 2012 19:18 UTC (Mon) by dlang (guest, #313) [Link] (7 responses)

> All the worthwhile targets (machines and humans, most importantly troops) are on the ground.

Here is a major disagreement. I see the satellites themselves as being major targets. If all satellites were to stop working, most of the first world countries would be in a world of hurt.

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 24, 2012 22:03 UTC (Mon) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (6 responses)

Here is a major disagreement. I see the satellites themselves as being major targets. If all satellites were to stop working, most of the first world countries would be in a world of hurt.

Not as much you'd like to think. Yes, some services will be disrupted (like toll collection), but if you compare it with what destruction of just a few large dams can do… no, there are no comparison.

Yes, satellites are slowly becoming indispensable in a few rare cases, but their destruction are still not a way to cripple your military power. For that you ultimately still need on-the-ground military operation, even airstrikes can only help them, not replace them.

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 25, 2012 11:50 UTC (Tue) by nix (subscriber, #2304) [Link] (5 responses)

You might want to pay attention to just how much depends on GPS these days. A smaller actor with space-interdiction capability wishing to bugger up a lot of larger actors could do worse than taking out a bunch of GPS satellites.

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 26, 2012 4:27 UTC (Wed) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] (4 responses)

Military jams GPS regularly when they do military exercises. There are some inconveniences and people complain, yes, but nothing life-threatening.

You right is pointing out that people are using unreliable and fragile GPS significantly more often then it's feasible, but GPS is far from being security critical infrastructure.

Well, it is sometimes critical for military offense, but this different problem altogether (it falls under "space-technology assisted offence and as I've pointed out this is not all that reliable") - and military have replacements (may be not as efficient, but they work).

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 26, 2012 18:58 UTC (Wed) by dlang (guest, #313) [Link] (1 responses)

Without Satellites, military communications and targeting will suffer drastically.

the vast majority of the 'smart' bombs that are in use rely on GPS, without GPS we are back to Korea war era targeting precision.

communications would in some ways be in worse shape (while the military keeps some of the old stuff around, just in case, the difference between what they are trained to expect to have available, and what they would have available would cause problems in itself)

space-based assets are a drastic force multiplier (both for offense and defense). I would say that they are well over a 10x multiplier, and I could see arguments putting them in the 100x range.

If being able to weaken your opponent by 10x or 100x doesn't make something a militarily significant target, I don't know what would.

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 26, 2012 20:41 UTC (Wed) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link]

Without Satellites, military communications and targeting will suffer drastically.

On your own turf? Only if you've did something stupid and replaced reliable land-based communications with a sattelite-based ones.

the vast majority of the 'smart' bombs that are in use rely on GPS, without GPS we are back to Korea war era targeting precision.

Sure, but this an aggression, not defence. You may say that sometimes you actually need to attack someone and I may even agree with you but this does not change the fact that when you sent your 'smart' bombs to some other country you are an agressor.

communications would in some ways be in worse shape (while the military keeps some of the old stuff around, just in case, the difference between what they are trained to expect to have available, and what they would have available would cause problems in itself)

Again: not on your home turf.

space-based assets are a drastic force multiplier (both for offense and defense). I would say that they are well over a 10x multiplier, and I could see arguments putting them in the 100x range.

They are potent multiplier in a case of aggression, but for defence? Not so much. You don't need to use sattelites if you can just connect two military pieces with an optical canble (or just plan old radio). Yes, you can use sattelites to notice enemy earlier, but radars on ground work just fine, too. Only when you move to another, hostile country you need to rely on sattelites - and this move is act of aggression by defnition (when you move to friendly country you can bring the same on-ground network with you).

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Sep 26, 2012 22:00 UTC (Wed) by nix (subscriber, #2304) [Link]

Military jams GPS regularly when they do military exercises. There are some inconveniences and people complain, yes, but nothing life-threatening.

This has long ceased to be true. You might note that the military do not jam GPS in major civil centres and especially not near e.g. airports. (What GPS jamming goes on is people trying to fake their tachographs. This is causing increasing trouble and concern at fairly high levels.)

LinuxCon: Dragons and penguins in space

Posted Oct 7, 2012 19:16 UTC (Sun) by oak (guest, #2786) [Link]

I think most goods to US are transferred with ships. I think nowadays ships use GPS extensively for navigation. Taxi services would also suffer quite a lot if GPS would stop working...