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josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart

josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart

Posted May 12, 2011 9:30 UTC (Thu) by ekj (guest, #1524)
In reply to: josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart by wahern
Parent article: Scale Fail (part 1)

It depends on how you define "success".

If you mean, do a lot better than most people who peruse the same activity, then it's almost tautological that there's no recipee for it. If there was a simple and unambigious way of outperforming the general market as an investor, for example, then all investors would be using technique, thus negatings it's effectiveness. It's matemathically obvious that investors as a group, will not be able to beat the market. Thus one person can only beat the market to PRECISELY the same degree as another underperforms the market.

But there's other ways of defining success.

There's things that on the average *do* lead to goals that people desire. It's just that it's hard to do them. If you can manage to do them though, then achieving those goals become likely. I'd call that success.

Saving 10% of your income in a low-cost index-fund will, with high probability, give you a very solid financial position in a decade or two. (but not make you a billionaire)

You're just saying, it seems to me, there's no simple, predictable, repeatable way of doing the exceptional. That's almost tautological, because if there where, it'd no longer -be- exceptional.

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