And yes, luck is a massive factor. Warren's strategy sounds good, but it's the same strategy lots of people have, without getting his success. We might as well listen to the anomalous 110 year old who tells us he puts it down to a long walk every afternoon. No doubt walking doesn't hurt, but it's not why he's 110, that's just blind luck.
Survivorship bias is a huge problem. If 500 people all pick one of twenty strategies at random, and all but one of the 500 fails, we would be wrong to assume that therefore the strategy chosen by that one person works and the other nineteen do not. But that's exactly what survivorship bias causes us to assume.
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 9, 2011 7:55 UTC (Mon) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
Are these digits random or not? And if not, what is the pattern?
69804177583220909702029165734725158290463091035903784297757265172087724
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 9, 2011 16:02 UTC (Mon) by dskoll (subscriber, #1630) [Link]
Of course those digits are random. So are these digits:
1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
(In other words: Your question is meaningless.)
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 10, 2011 6:17 UTC (Tue) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 10, 2011 10:45 UTC (Tue) by dskoll (subscriber, #1630) [Link]
Of course it's meaningless. There's no such thing as a set of digits that are "random" or "non-random". You can take a sequence generator and run some statistical tests, but that doesn't prove anything. You can test a sequence of digits for compressibility, but that also doesn't prove anything. The digits in the decimal expansion of pi pass all kinds of statistical tests for randomness, but they are assuredly not "random".
As for a pattern, given a finite sequence of digits, you can construct any pattern you like. I could construct a degree-71 polynomial that fits the 71 digits you posted and say "Yes, that's the generator!"
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 10, 2011 14:20 UTC (Tue) by bronson (subscriber, #4806) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 12, 2011 1:33 UTC (Thu) by dskoll (subscriber, #1630) [Link]
Well, at the parties I go to, people don't usually open the conversation with "69804177583220909702029165734725158290463091035903784297757265172087724".
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 12, 2011 4:43 UTC (Thu) by bronson (subscriber, #4806) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 12, 2011 16:12 UTC (Thu) by dskoll (subscriber, #1630) [Link]
Chill out.
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 10, 2011 19:05 UTC (Tue) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
That would be a pattern, but not an interesting one.
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 10, 2011 19:07 UTC (Tue) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
A non-interesting pattern would be something like the observation "this is a number!" or the observation that all digits from 0 to 9 occur.
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 12, 2011 11:39 UTC (Thu) by etienne (guest, #25256) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 19, 2011 11:03 UTC (Thu) by yeti-dn (guest, #46560) [Link]
Just answering so I don't miss the answer
Posted May 10, 2011 21:25 UTC (Tue) by man_ls (guest, #15091) [Link]
It looks pretty random, but there are too few repeated consecutive digits: only three 77 and one 22. I give up, what is the pattern?
Just answering so I don't miss the answer
Posted May 10, 2011 23:05 UTC (Tue) by neilbrown (subscriber, #359) [Link]
If you consider just the first 4 digits (0,1,2,3), then even digits occur 10 times each, odd digits 5 time each. However this pattern does not continue (4 and 8 also occur 5 times, but are even).
The longest gap between repeats is 24 between 2 '8's.
'6' and '4' see gaps of 23.
'6' is the least frequent digit, 7 is the most frequent (3 times as frequent)
Taken as a decimal integer the factors less than 100 are
2,2,3,3,23,23
Yet the whole number is not a perfect square.
My conclusion is that this is probably the "least uninteresting number" - very interesting....
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 11, 2011 6:00 UTC (Wed) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
Every digit is completely predetermined, but it's pretty hard to spot if you don't know what you're looking for!
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 11, 2011 8:07 UTC (Wed) by ballombe (subscriber, #9523) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 11, 2011 16:56 UTC (Wed) by tialaramex (subscriber, #21167) [Link]
We suspect (as far as I remember no-one has proved) that all possible sequences of digits occur in Pi. Assuming this is so, the fact that a particular sequence occurs in Pi is not interesting at all.
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 11, 2011 20:08 UTC (Wed) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 12, 2011 8:27 UTC (Thu) by ekj (guest, #1524) [Link]
josh's clients aren't stupid, they're smart
Posted May 12, 2011 16:56 UTC (Thu) by fuhchee (guest, #40059) [Link]
What Do These Digits Mean?
Posted May 19, 2011 12:35 UTC (Thu) by ldo (guest, #40946) [Link]
#!/usr/bin/python import sys charset = ' Wadefhlnost' modulo = 13 s = 13682311570832829480888979137834570837851469148689544502986 num = iter(range(2, 9999)) while s != 1 : n = num.next() if s % n == 0 : sys.stdout.write("%s" % charset[(n - 1) % modulo]) s /= n #end if #end while sys.stdout.write("\n")
What Do These Digits Mean?
Posted May 26, 2011 12:20 UTC (Thu) by net_benji (subscriber, #75195) [Link]
Here are more working combinations:
charset = "hetfn adlsoW"
s = 7062883793966047784250125868403644804557392731274644684033611
charset = "tslofWe dnha"
s = 1029201132023087388381452825147240668180384494509643451351
...
and here's a different one, just for the fun of it:
charset = "wfyonirvmD s?ecutdpah"
modulo = 23
s = 79 * 211 * 241 * 463 * 487 * 499 * 563 * 571 * 673 * 787 * 911 * 977 * 991 * 1039 * 1249 * 1483 * 1489 * 1493 * 1601 * 1621 * 1697 * 1699 * 1889 * 2243 * 2311 * 2347 * 2459 * 2521 * 2719 * 2909 * 2953 * 3119 * 3271 * 3323 * 3359 * 3533 * 3733 * 3947 * 3967 * 4057 * 4177 * 4283 * 4289 * 4597 * 4651 * 4733 * 4933 * 4969 * 5021 * 5087 * 5261 * 5281 * 5347 * 5399 * 5449 * 5557 * 5641 * 5711 * 5807 * 5869 * 5981 * 6353 * 6359 * 6389 * 6569 * 6701 * 6791 * 6823 * 6983 * 7187 * 7309 * 7321 * 7481 * 7529 * 7673 * 7873 * 7901 * 8017
The source for the generator is there: https://github.com/benthaman/lwn-digits/blob/master/encod...
Hope Jon won't mind posting this nonsense here ;)
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