Blizzard: HTML5 video and H.264 - what history tells us and why we're standing with the web

They're orthogonal arguments though. In one dimension you have a video
embedding technology, HTML5 vs Flash. In the other dimension you have the
video codec, H.264 v Ogg Theora.

At present the world is Flash / H.264. Surely replacing Flash with HTML5 is a
win, regardless of the codec dimension?

Further, the dimensions are not completely independent, for Flash intrinsically
supports H.264, whereas it does not support Ogg Theora. The video codecs
which Flash is deemed to support is determined solely by one
vendor, for all practical purposes[1]. So in a world where Flash is the dominant
video embedding technology you will struggle to get the codec changed.
Whereas with HTML5 you have a greater number of vendors who can offer
more codec support, including a very well established open-source effort.

Therefore if you can encourage the adoption of HTML5 over Flash, regardless
of codec, you will get more freedom to change the world in the other
dimension (the codec dimension).

Basically, this is how you change the world:

Flash + H.264
-> HTML5 + H.264
-> HTML5 + H.264 + Ogg Theora
-> HTML5 + Ogg Theora

You stand far less chance of making the world a more free place by spurning
HTML5, as that just keeps Flash in place, which keeps the codec dimensions
'stuck' to the H.264 pole.

(and yes, I know Ogg Theora is a container format itself, I don't know the
name of the free video codec it uses - VP3?)

1. they have the ability to ensure any free re-implementations are always
kept well behind.