the ratio of "false positive" and real bugs is about 1:1 so far, where the false positives generally are doing some fishy-but-happens-to-be-ok locking most of the time.
And as Ingo already pointed out. The fishy-but-happens-to-be-ok are now nicely documented by the work arounds to (in akpm's words) make-lockdep-shut-up patches. ;)
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