Open document formats and the path to world domination

The parallels between Microsoft's two strategy shifts are striking. Both were triggered in part by spectacular IPOs: Netscape's in 1995, Google's in 2004. Both sought to head off the same threat of OS-independent computing. Back in 1995, Gates was worried that Netscape's software might create a "Webtop" platform, where Java applets would be downloaded over the Internet into the browser to provide word processors, spreadsheets and the rest. In 2005, another Net-based approach – software services of the kind popularized by Google – not only allows the browser to provide those same functions, but comes with a flourishing ad-based revenue model to sustain it.

Gates's response is also similar in both cases: to embrace the basic idea so as to reduce the appeal of rival offerings, and then, ultimately, to use it to tie users more closely to his products. The success of that technique can be seen in the dominance of Internet Explorer, which not only replaced Netscape Navigator as the most popular browser, but managed to subvert Web standards to such an extent that Navigator was ultimately perceived as inferior since it was unable to work with the huge number of IE-specific sites.

One lesson to be learned from this history is that Microsoft should never be underestimated, even – perhaps especially - when it seems to be wrong-footed and forced to adopt technologies that apparently threaten its empire. Fear has always given the company focus. The new Windows Live system may look innocuous and even conciliatory – it can not only be accessed from GNU/Linux machines, but also explicitly supports Firefox - but the back-end hooks into Microsoft's products are likely to be deep.

The second and probably more important lesson to be drawn is that the much talked-about Google Office service – if and when it does come – is not going to be the Microsoft Office killer that many seem to imagine. Whatever Google or anyone else might do in this sphere, Microsoft can simply match it, at least in terms of functionality.

But one thing that Microsoft is unlikely to offer is support for truly open file formats, its recent announcement of the "open standardization" of Office formats notwithstanding. The technical and legal details of this will need to be examined closely to see whether it is yet another case of Microsoft apparently promising much, but in reality delivering considerably less. After all, if it did support a completely open file format, the barrier to switching to other office suites would disappear.

Until the approval of the new OpenDocument Format (ODF) standard by OASIS, there were many alternatives to Microsoft's office file formats, but none around which other manufacturers or major users could rally. With ODF, there is now not only an official standard, but a real choice of software that supports (or will support) it.

The key role that ODF will play in tomorrow's battles between open and proprietary approaches is already evident in the furore surrounding the Commonwealth of Massachusetts's decision to adopt ODF as an official file format. The rather forced logic of Microsoft's comments on this move is an indication of the company's difficulties in neutralizing this threat. Moreover, Massachusetts may turn out to be no simple loss of business, but a tipping point that could lead to large-scale defections from Microsoft's proprietary formats to open standards. Anyone who doubts that such a shift is possible should bear in mind that WordPerfect and Lotus 1-2-3 once dominated their respective sectors as totally as the programs that displaced them - Microsoft Word and Excel - do now.

An even more serious blow to Microsoft's grip on the office market could come from Europe. The European Union (EU) is keen to promote what it calls open document exchange formats. One of its technical subcommittees approved a series of recommendations that effectively back ODF – provided it becomes a recognized standard. Bizarrely, OASIS does not count as a standards body in this context, and so ODF has been submitted to the better-known International Organization for Standardization (ISO). ODF could emerge as an ISO standard sometime next year. At that point, the EU may well throw its considerable weight behind ODF by specifying it as the preferred format for public sector communications in Europe. Microsoft is acutely aware of this threat: it is no coincidence that it announced the standardization of its Office formats in Paris, not Redmond.

Private sector support is gathering momentum, too. The original donor of the OpenOffice.org code, Sun, has naturally adopted ODF in its StarOffice 8.0, and also offers a grid-based service for bulk conversion of Microsoft Office documents into ODF files. Another major player in this area is IBM, which uses OpenOffice.org formats for its groupware product Workplace, likely to be the successor to Lotus Notes.

The strength of both of these companies' commitment is shown by the fact that, despite their other differences, Sun and IBM jointly hosted an ODF summit at the beginning of November; those attending included Google, Nokia, Novell, Oracle and Red Hat. One of the items discussed was the creation of a formal ODF Foundation to promote the standard. An Open Document Fellowship bringing together individuals interested in the development of ODF (including the present writer) already exists.

ODF is fast emerging as one of the most important recent developments in the software world – had it not existed, Microsoft would surely never have embarked on its "open standardization" process. In time, its appearance in May this year might even turn out to be as pivotal as Bill Gates' Pearl Harbor Day speech. At the very least, it represents a rich new vein that can be mined by open source programmers keen to make their mark. As a young standard, there are still gaps in its software support. Items on the wish list include:

• A plug-in that would allow Microsoft Office users to read and write ODF files (a server-based approach is already under development).

• Improved accessibility for disabled users (one of the issues that is threatening to derail the Massachusetts decision).

• A simple ODF reader, along the lines of Adobe's Acrobat, that would enable users to read ODF documents without installing an entire office suite.

• A lightweight ODF editor – even smaller than Abiword, say – that would allow simple changes to ODF text files.

• A Wiki-like collaborative editing system based around ODF Work on OpenFormula, which complements and extends ODF

In the browser wars of the late 1990s, Bill Gates was able to wrest control of the web from Netscape because of the latter's short-sighted attempts to beat Microsoft at its own game – notably by adding proprietary twists to HTML. Today, as Microsoft re-invents itself in the image of Web 2.0, the situation is rather different. The importance and power of open standards is more evident, and the free software community is no longer a small and apparently marginal group but, instead, the most important counterpoise to Microsoft, well placed to resist any moves to "de-commoditize" key technologies like Ajax.

And this time, there is a chance to go on the offensive. The open source world has long had the desire to end Microsoft's dominance on the desktop; with ODF – not GNU/Linux, as many have believed – it may finally have the means.

(Glyn Moody is author of Rebel Code: Linux and the open source revolution.).