Ubuntu Linux and the future of Debian
The money behind Ubuntu is certainly one reason; new distributions may pop up every week, but few of them have a reported 40 paid developers behind them. When a new distribution has that sort of backing, people have a reason to assume that there is something interesting going on, and that it may stay around for a while.
The quality of the hackers that Ubuntu was able to attract is also clearly a factor. Ubuntu employs a number of well-known developers from the GNOME, FreeDesktop.org, and Debian communities, among others. When top-quality developers get together behind a new project, interesting things tend to happen.
Ubuntu also makes promises which resonate with a great many users. A quick, single-CD installation process backed up by a huge network-based package repository. A strong emphasis on the best desktop experience that Linux can offer. Bleeding-edge packages combined with a promise of free support for 18 months. A promise of a six-month release cycle backed up by some of the developers who lived up to that promise with the GNOME project. A general sort of cool buzz.
Those are all good reasons for Ubuntu to succeed, but there may be something else going on here. Ubuntu may have found a way to become the preferred interface between users and the Debian project.
Debian has a lot of appeal. It is an excruciatingly free distribution characterized by a widely recognized technical excellence. It offers a variety of packages which is second to none and a package management system which is unequaled elsewhere. But Debian scares away a number of potential users. Its "stable" release is painfully out of date most of the time, the "unstable" release is rather too bleeding-edge for many users (while still being slow to pick up new releases at times), and the middle-of-the-road "testing" release seems to offer the worst of both "stable" and "unstable." The process of creating a new stable release looks chaotic, with no timeline for an actual release in sight. The community seems to spend rather too much time arguing about the free status of firmware and documentation and packaging up obscure tools and too little time simply creating a current distribution with a broader appeal. Debian is a great institution, but it worries a number of people.
Ubuntu is the promise of all the good things about Debian without many of the problems. As a stabilized version of Debian sid, it has a remarkably current set of packages. For some software (e.g. GNOME 2.8) Ubuntu was, by design, ahead of everybody else. The release cycle is well defined, and the support period has been made clear from the beginning. There is the obligatory friendly installer as well. Ubuntu looks like a Debian which stays current, and which is safe for ordinary people to use.
Ubuntu is certainly not the first company which has made a go at being a more civilized Debian distribution; others include Progeny, Linspire, Lycoris, UserLinux, and even Corel's old offering. Ubuntu looks rather more community-oriented than many of the other commercial, Debian-based distributions, however; Linspire may be good at attracting attention and lawsuits, but few people would consider it to be truly open or part of the community. Appearances matter, and Ubuntu appears to have the right people and attitude.
Interestingly, Ubuntu appears to have made a bigger splash than even UserLinux, which is arguably a more community-oriented, Debian-based distribution. The UserLinux project is clearly well aware of Ubuntu, to the point of adding an entry to the UserLinux FAQ on the differences between the two distributions:
UserLinux aims to create a standard core for ISV's/whomever to support. This includes very little real packaging of custom software beyond pieces to 'brand' the system. Most of the system is packaged upstream and maintained upstream. Ubuntu aims to create a Debian based desktop distribution and contains a very large number of custom packages. For example, Debian Sarge ships with GNOME 2.6 while Ubuntu is forked off of Unstable around the same time that Sarge did, but ships GNOME 2.8 with significant modifications.
For the purposes of public image in mid-October, 2004, one might state the Ubuntu has added a significant amount of value (or at least changes) to Debian, and has a stable release out now. UserLinux looks to be mostly a rebranding effort with no releases available yet. From that viewpoint, it's not surprising that Ubuntu is currently hogging the spotlight. That situation could change as UserLinux pulls its first release together and gets its distributed support network going.
UserLinux would be well advised to do these things soon.
There is clearly a market for distributors who impose some order upon the
Debian development process. With these distributors in place, the
undisciplined nature of the Debian release process does not matter anywhere
near as much. The emergence of successful, value-added, Debian-based
distributions may be one of the best things to happen to Debian in some
time.
