FOSS in times of war, scarcity, and AI

Michiel Leenaars, director of strategy at the NLnet Foundation, used his keynote at FOSDEM to sound warnings for the community for free and open-source software (FOSS); in particular, he talked about the threats posed by geopolitical politics, dangerous allies, and large language models (LLMs). His talk was a mix of observations and suggestions that pertain to FOSS in general and to Europe in particular as geopolitical tensions have mounted in recent months.

Leenaars began by saying that there is a lot of good open source out there, but it is not being used for good. The irony is that in trying to empower people to take control of their own computing destiny, the FOSS community has empowered the wrong people—those who would like to use software to control others. The ideals of global cooperation and reuse have enabled abuse as well.

So how did we get here? Leenaars referred back to the birth of the World Wide Web at CERN in Switzerland. The thinking was, "we should do things for the world, we should not have boundaries; let's see if we can share". Economies were booming, technology was advancing, money was being made, and parliamentary democracies were taking over. Everybody was in a positive, constructive mood. It was the "end of history", a political philosophy put forward by Francis Fukuyama in his book The End of History and the Last Man. The thesis of the book was that, with liberal democracy, humanity had reached its final form of government.

Leenaars's talk description had been shared on Hacker News well before FOSDEM; he noted that one of the comments said that it sounded like "the official obituary for the 90s techno-optimism many of us grew up on". He said that it is, in a sense.

As FOSS evolved, the community chose "dangerous allies" in the tech companies and future public cloud "hyperscalers". "We thought we could control that; it was not a realistic assumption." There was a darker narrative going on instead, he said; the US National Security Agency (NSA) was carrying out mass surveillance and spying on politicians in other countries, which came to light when Edward Snowden leaked documents that revealed the existence of those programs.

SCRAPS

Despite "this dark layer underneath", though, people, organizations, and governments in Europe were not upset enough to stop working with and trusting businesses in the US. Instead, Europe continued to depend on US tech companies, and to host its data in the public clouds anchored there. He said that Europeans felt like equals with the US, and that it was safe to trust "our friends and long-time allies" in building public clouds that it could rely on. "We can focus on our core business, and look at the total cost of ownership" instead of infrastructure.

That dependence, he said, "makes you incompetent, a victim of potential abuse". It's fine in the short term, but the pain comes afterward. If the entire European Union depends on external providers, and it does, it draws the short straw. "We don't have capacity. We are literally incompetent". CTOs were proud of "cloud-first" strategies; he proposed a different term, "strategic computer rental and anchoring to proprietary services" (SCRAPS).

Even SCRAPS are not guaranteed. Providers of cloud services can refuse to do business with an organization, or be compelled to do so. He referred to sanctions against the International Criminal Court that caused Microsoft to block the email account of the court's chief prosecutor. "We're now at the mercy of the same people who profit off of us, and they still hold the kill switch."

European people, Leenaars said, are now in panic mode and looking for government to keep society afloat. "We shouldn't have become so dependent, but that's about three decades too late". Still, many people inside governments are running toward the fire instead of away from it. He mentioned the Netherlands Ministry of Finance that has been working on a migration to Microsoft 365. The ministry has seen the whole situation, but it's put so much effort into it and has been "locked in to the same company for 50 years". A sort of Stockholm Syndrome has evolved, he said. But he agreed it has a problem with their current tools. "I filed a freedom of information request with them three months ago, and they have not been able to produce a single document". He thought it would be nice if the ministry had gained some situational awareness and would stop putting people in danger.

History did not end

The government's answer is, "let's get more European startups, lots of competitors", he said, but that is the wrong approach. "We don't need to breed more predators; we need mission-driven organizations, we need companies that are public stewards." He called for a pipeline from academia to engineering, to nonprofits and service companies that do not seek to be captive platforms. Simply having a public cloud that is owned by European businesses is not the answer if those businesses follow the same models as the US ones.

The world, Leenaars said, is in the worst shape that it's been in for decades. It turned out that history did not end after all. He talked about social media and described it as "95% FOSS and the rest is cognitive warfare". He had complaints not only about disinformation being spread online, but the short-form content that is popular today as well. Kids, he worried, were becoming dependent on short content that did not deal with complexity. "I don't fear World War III as much as I fear de-enlightenment and a subsequent second dark ages."

His next worry for FOSS was as a target for state actors in warfare. Countries are now targeting the enemy's software and devices as well as waging traditional warfare. He referenced the Lebanon electronic device attacks (dubbed "Operation Grim Beeper") carried out by Israel in September 2024; those attacks made use of pagers and two-way radios carried by Hezbollah members that had been compromised at some point in the supply chain. That had enabled Israel to eavesdrop on its targets' communications until it then detonated the devices on September 17 and 18.

He also discussed the backdooring of XZ in 2024: an attack that was conducted by "Jia Tan" after gaining trust with the original XZ maintainer over a long period of time. The average company has 25,000 software dependencies, he said, and any of them could be used to break in. There are millions of packages, and millions of people maintaining them; all of those maintainers and packages are potential weak spots. But if the new people coming in to help cannot be trusted, or if maintainers are too paranoid and chase contributors away, "we're also screwed".

Cavalry or Trojan Horse?

At this point, Leenaars said, we see horses on the horizon in the form of LLMs; is that the cavalry coming to the aid of FOSS or an army of next-generation Trojan Horses galloping through the gates of the village? The promise of LLMs is that they can take responsibility off of developers' hands, and allow organizations to focus on the core business. "That's a thing we've heard before. The product framing is super-good. Sounds so legit." He reminded the audience of the saying that there is no cloud, only other people's computers. In this context, though, he suggested: "there is no Claude, only other people's code."

Leenaars said that LLMs do a good job of some things, but claimed it was fundamentally impossible for them to do all the things they are expected to do. It is possible, he allowed, that LLM-tools could do "a lot of the janitoring we can do that humans are really weary of doing". There are, after all, many boring tasks in software development humans might like to offload. He recommended that the audience be cautious about what machines are allowed to do. Keep security in mind, and keep LLMs contained; but even then, he said he was not convinced that there was a problem that needed solving by LLMs.

Instead, if FOSS has such a large attack surface in the form of so many libraries and dependencies, trying to reduce the attack surface makes more sense than adding LLMs into the mix. It also makes sense to try to reduce maintainer burnout. He called on "people in the military who are seeing huge budgets" to spend some of that money on talented programmers who could improve FOSS and reduce its attack surface. There are billions and billions of Euros that will be invested in Europe's defenses, some of that money should be spent on FOSS. "The FOSS ecosystem should not build stuff for weapons, but should get money from people who need to defend us. We are their defense, we are their infrastructure." Europeans should be telling politicians that they do not just need to support FOSS to enable digital sovereignty, but also for defense. With that, Leenaars wrapped up the talk, without any time for questions.

Overall the talk was a bit disjointed, and Leenaars presented few concrete suggestions for the audience. But the talk seemed to resonate with the packed main room, and he touched on topics that were prevalent at FOSDEM all weekend: wariness of the changing political picture in the US, distrust of AI/LLMs, as well as a desire to reduce dependence on US companies and services.

[Thanks to the Linux Foundation, LWN's travel sponsor, for funding my travel to Brussels to attend FOSDEM.]

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