The programming talent myth

Posted Apr 29, 2015 13:34 UTC (Wed) by ncm (guest, #165)
Parent article: The programming talent myth

This "myth" is a bunch of things, some valid. 60-hour work weeks amount to bad management, for instance. But the "shortage" of programmers, as of engineers, announced every couple of years (for many decades past) is purely class warfare. Offer what programming is worth, and rock-star programmers will come pouring in. Attempts to drive up enrollments are transparent price-gouging.

Enough women enroll already, along with too many white men who will not be good enough. Send them home, and the numbers will equalize. The skills needed for good programmers don't correlate with skin color, sex, attractiveness, or personality. We get all kinds. Filter out privilege, and talent surfaces. You will end up with fewer graduates, but can put more attention into readying them, and they will do better work.

I know personally a programmer who produced, on a crash six-month project, as much code as 500 other programmers in the group. He is humble because he knows another who produces several times as fast as he does (he says ten), and wears out two keyboards a year, although at a cost to his health.

The reason we need the best programmers coding is that bad code has negative value. Mix good and bad code and you end up with zero value; maybe positive if you're lucky, but just as likely negative. How many programming projects are abandoned every year by otherwise well-run companies?

Mediocre, and worse, managers can cause much more harm than bad programmers, but it's harder to root them out. When there's rooting being done, it's as likely as not the bad managers making the decisions. If you're a good manager, your hands are full protecting your programmers from the products of privilege all around you.

The programming talent myth

Posted Apr 29, 2015 14:58 UTC (Wed) by dgm (subscriber, #49227) [Link]

(where's the frigging +1 button?)
Ooops... caught thinking aloud!

The programming talent myth

Posted Apr 30, 2015 7:00 UTC (Thu) by kleptog (subscriber, #1183) [Link] (16 responses)

TBH I'm not sure what you mean by class warfare in this context (which classes?) but to say there is no shortage is silly. I'm also not sure what you mean by "offering what programming is worth" since programmers seem to be paid at least twice the average salary so it's not like it's badly paid or anything.

But mostly we don't need loads of rock-star programmers. We need the recognition in the general population that programming is something that almost anyone can do. The shortage in programming jobs is not in rock-star programmers, but in mediocre programmers.

As for the 60 hours work week thing, I think that's a uniquely American problem, for which the solution is: stop doing it. In most of the rest of the world it's illegal to work that many hours so there's the legislative solution, but Americans being Americans that won't happen.

The programming talent myth

Posted Apr 30, 2015 21:39 UTC (Thu) by ncm (guest, #165) [Link] (1 responses)

In America, instead, it's illegal to punish employers for demanding 60-hour workweeks -- but only employers of programmers.

Class warfare? Simple. Programming is labor with very high product-value. Artificially inflate the supply of programmers, whether by inflated enrollment or H1B immigration, and costs (i.e. salaries) plummet. Most people who graduate with tech degrees don't find work doing it, although chemists and biologists come off worst.

High salaries? Compared to what? The degree of skill required, and value extracted (not to say "produced") is in the ballpark with other professions, law and medicine. Periodically we hear warnings about upcoming grave shortages of physicians, but there is no H1B program flooding us with doctors and dentists. Credit the AMA and ADA where due. Programmers,instead, are singled out as "exempt" from labor protections and tax benefits.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 5, 2015 20:01 UTC (Tue) by nix (subscriber, #2304) [Link]

Periodically we hear warnings about upcoming grave shortages of physicians, but there is no H1B program flooding us with doctors and dentists.

That's because doctors and dentists don't greatly benefit from clustering the way tech does, so there is no Silicon Valley for doctors and dentists acting as a giant sucking magnet pulling talented people towards the US (and both Cambridges).

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 0:48 UTC (Fri) by ncm (guest, #165) [Link] (13 responses)

Furthermore... In the U.S., today, membership in the "middle class" starts, in the cheapest housing areas, at something around $120k/yr. "Average programmer salaries" ("exempt", recall, from the right to overtime for those 60-hour weeks demanded of us), however well you think they compare to the average wage, clock in, as you note, well below that.

The overwhelming majority of programmers cannot even be said to be middle-class. What is called low enrollment of women in software training reflects a very pragmatic recognition of realistic prospects. The anomaly is weirdly high enrollment by white males, pursuing a myth slightly different from the one suggested.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 2:10 UTC (Fri) by mathstuf (subscriber, #69389) [Link] (8 responses)

So…with the poverty line in the US around $24k, what is the $100k-wide band up to your middle class number? Wiki says that $30k-$65k is lower middle class and up to around $125k is upper middle class (for a household). Those numbers seem much more reasonable to me. Not everyone lives in ridiculously priced areas like NYC or the SF Bay area (where $120k might actually net you the same as something like $80k in a more reasonable location after taking out expected rent and such).

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 4:01 UTC (Fri) by ncm (guest, #165) [Link] (7 responses)

They used to call that "working class" or, less politely, wage slavery. Wikipedia is evidently not a great resource for economic insight. (Who wrote that stuff?) Consider your average programmer's salary less house, insurance, and car payments. The lucky ones might inherit a parent's house. Used cars are a better value nowadays, fortunately.

The US used to have a wide swath of middle class voters. They have been largely wiped out, very deliberately, by policies instituted in the '70s, supported by crushingly effective propaganda methods invented by Edward Bernays in the '20s. In their place are people who think they're middle-class because their parents really were, and because politicians and advertisers tell them they are. But most are one medical emergency away from homelessness.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 7:45 UTC (Fri) by kleptog (subscriber, #1183) [Link] (6 responses)

> Consider your average programmer's salary less house, insurance, and car payments.

Can you give some figures for your area for these things because it's not making sense for me. For example around here we're you could buy (what's considered here) a large house for $1340 p/m, insurance would be about $250 p/m (for everything, including health) and a car lease perhaps $500 p/m, so a household earning 60k should have at least 15k income left even after the 30% income tax. (Numbers converted from Euros to US$ for easier comparison).

I'm guessing it's the health insurance which is expensive, but it'd be nice if you could provide some actual prices.

> But most are one medical emergency away from homelessness.

Protip: universal healthcare solves this problem. Really.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 11:43 UTC (Fri) by ncm (guest, #165) [Link] (1 responses)

*Would* solve it. But the insurance lobby in the US is too powerful ever to allow any such thing, and the propaganda machine is too effective. The US is what is called a "managed population" now, routinely voting against its own interests in favor of the extreme rich. It will only get worse now that corporate money is "protected speech".

The programming talent myth

Posted May 2, 2015 12:28 UTC (Sat) by deepfire (guest, #26138) [Link]

This sounds pretty desperate, and I'm not sure I can see a solution.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 18:30 UTC (Fri) by dlang (guest, #313) [Link] (3 responses)

In many of the 'hip' large metro areas, $1300/month may get you a single room in someone else's house, or a tiny, survival apartment.

Car insurance in many of these same places can easily be a couple hundred a month (assuming a new car and full coverage)

Health insurance is frequently less than car insurance for a single person (family health insurance paid by one person is more)

All this adds up and drives the prices of everything else up as well. Groceries are noticeably more expensive in many of these areas.

The mega tech companies deciding that they really don't like remote workers, and want everyone to live and work in a few massive complexes helps drive this. Not only are their employees having to pay these high costs, but everyone else in the area does as well (including all the startups)

> Protip: universal healthcare solves this problem. Really.

yeah right. many people who have lived under both systems disagree with you.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 20:29 UTC (Fri) by mathstuf (subscriber, #69389) [Link] (1 responses)

And in this area, $1300 can get you an apartment with a covered, heated garage and other niceties (like an elevator for moving in). And if you can afford the down payment, that's about what a mortgage on a decent house is (with good credit). My first apartment was a 3-room attic for ~$500/month (after electricity and gas). Car insurance is ~$100/month (for a 2013; the 1989 was ~$60/month mainly due to not having things like ABS, airbags, and other safety features), I don't really look at what gets taken out of the paycheck for healthcare, so I can't comment on that. Your numbers are *way* higher than is really necessary in many areas. Again, not everyone lives in NYC or the Bay area and using it as a baseline for what is "acceptable" across the entire US is a little absurd.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 1, 2015 20:44 UTC (Fri) by dlang (guest, #313) [Link]

I wasn't even giving Bay area prices. I agree that the cost of living varies greatly around the country and around the world. Everyone needs to be aware of this and not think that their local situation reflects how things are for others (be it the person in Silicon Valley where $120K/year is marginal or the person living somewhere where $60K/year is comfortable)

The programming talent myth

Posted May 3, 2015 21:42 UTC (Sun) by paulj (subscriber, #341) [Link]

On living under universal healthcare, my experience of NHS Scotland is that it is absolutely amazing. Makes me want to stay in Scotland, despite the rain. I'd be scared now to live somewhere without it.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 7, 2015 2:23 UTC (Thu) by lordsutch (guest, #53) [Link] (3 responses)

"In the U.S., today, membership in the "middle class" starts, in the cheapest housing areas, at something around $120k/yr."

Nonsense. I'm a salaried professional and make half that and live, comfortably, in an area with moderately cheap (but by no means the cheapest) cost of living. And most of the professionals I know in my area make $50-80k.

Unless your definition of "middle class" involves owning a mansion and/or taking annual four-week vacations in Europe, flying first class and staying in luxury hotels, I think your perspective is a wee bit off.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 10, 2015 8:30 UTC (Sun) by ncm (guest, #165) [Link] (2 responses)

Self deception is never a pretty sight.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 11, 2015 17:27 UTC (Mon) by zlynx (guest, #2285) [Link] (1 responses)

There is no self deception here. You're both using different definitions of "middle class."

Define your terms.

The programming talent myth

Posted May 12, 2015 17:36 UTC (Tue) by dashesy (guest, #74652) [Link]

It also depends heavily on the state.