Microsoft plus Nokia: Pending patent troll? (InfoWorld)

The patent wars are usually small hurdles in the way, but the patents were never able to hurt a platform as such in the history of Big operating systems.

Apple lost to Microsoft in early 90s and Apple and Microsoft most likely wont succeed against android either. No one can stop Android until users switch to other platforms. Patent wars are fodder for journalists but those lawsuits were never able materialize/leverage as much as alleged initially in any lawsuit. Moreover the funny thing about patent lawsuits are mostly very long and the products are almost extinct in the market when any kind of meaningful ban arrives. Then comes the appeals court. You can almost forget the lawsuit by then.

The whole mobile phone business is going to have another paradigm shift when google-glass like devices arrives. So its a ever changing market and one who adapts and innovates will succeed and the other will perish in course of time. It doesn't matter if its Microsoft or Apple even if they have big pockets. Both of them could be the next Nokia down the years if they don't have any compelling products.

While Nokia could continue to go after Google (or more likely, Motorola or other phone manufacturers), it leaves Microsoft in a vulnerable position compared to Motorola. Since all Microsoft has are patent licenses, should Google use more of Motorola's patents against Microsoft, Microsoft can't exchange licenses (other than for their organically written patents), but will have to pay a larger fee to use Motorola's patents. It all works out in the end.

Nokia's position is also interesting in regards to now having carriers as their primary customers. I doubt those carriers look with favor at the possibility that some of the premier phones which customers want may be removed from the market as a result of Nokia actions. Customers don't know or care if they are using NSN network equipment. This also will soften the "we will never license these patents" argument, as now they have licensed them, it's now just a discussion about price. That doesn't mean Nokia won't sell the patents to someone else in the future, as unless suing people is their core competency, the patents may be worth more to someone else.

OTOH Nokia has probably been acting in the knowledge that their mobile division is going away for a year or two already. The Microsoft deal only dropped Nokia's employee count from 97k to 65k. That's significant, but it's not like their mobile phone division has not been shrinking for years. I doubt Nokia will become much more vicious than it has already been.