I think you are right to be skeptical but I think that the systemd team is using appropriate software engineering standards leading to decent initial code quality. While you say the code is complex it is no where near as complicated as, say, a filesystem, so will take less time to stabilize, it has been worked on for several years now and shipped on several systems for at least one release cycle. It represents a net reduction in code compared to the previous systems (sysvinit, startup scripts, shell functions commonly sourced by scripts, ancillary tools used by scripts to daemonize and track pidfiles, etc.) which is another factor which should lead to the core systemd stabilizing quickly.
There will be bugs and problems in the future but I don't expect them to be common or widespread and I'd be surprised if it were in the core functionality because the core has such a limited and well defined scope (starting and killing processes).