smartphone as a laptop replacement

Not entirely: a folding keyboard can fit in a pocket. It doesn't require a laptop bag over your shoulder, you can just put it in your pocket in the morning and forget about it until you use it.

> Maybe one day a good ultra-portable keyboard for tablets will be developed, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I use a Stowaway folding keyboard from a few years ago (predating tablets as we now know them). It's not quite as good as a laptop keyboard (mainly in that Esc and F1..F12 need a modifier key rather than having a separate row), but it's much better for my use than a netbook keyboard. It's one of the larger portable keyboards, but it still fits in a pocket, even if not a shirt pocket.

> A lot of the newer "chiclet style" laptop keyboards are horrible-- if anything, keyboard design has regressed.

The Stowaway keyboard I'm referring to doesn't have the problem I think you're referring to: it feels much like a traditional laptop keyboard.

There are others that you might not like, such as the rubbery rollable keyboards, or projection keyboards.