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Fate of the *BSDs

Fate of the *BSDs

Posted Nov 14, 2012 10:20 UTC (Wed) by man_ls (subscriber, #15091)
In reply to: Crowding out OpenBSD by Nahor
Parent article: Crowding out OpenBSD

Those holes are easy to plug, even without being our esteemed editor.

You talk of the Linux monoculture but what about the Unix/POSIX monoculture? Why is BSD dying worse than the death of CP/M, DOS, AmigaOS, ...?
Because BSD is Unix and it is Free software; BSD history is an essential piece of the grand tradition that has brought us Linux, GNU userland and all distros. BSD (or rather the *BSDs) are also "serious" OSs in areas where those others you mention are no competition, such as multiuser support.
You say that your humble readers should care about BSD's death, that BSD matters. But if it dies, it is *because* it doesn't matter.
You have a point, but many worthy software packages are in danger or unmaintained even though they matter a lot -- at least to some people.
You say that it is an important part of the free software ecosystem. But if it dies, it's because it's not important anymore.
That would be like saying that extinct species deserve their fate because they have not adapted to their ecosystems. There are external forces that have great influence on any ecosystem, in our case market pressures or company buyouts.
You say that we should care because BSD has many talented developers. Those developers won't die with BSD, they can move on to Linux or Haiku, or even Windows.
Precisely. Having those developers moving to Windows or Mac OS out of spite would be a loss from our point of view (i.e. Free software).
And maybe one day, this will happen to Linux too. The world changes, the world evolves. Darwin's theory at its best. The king is dead, long live the king.
Having some alternatives is good in case you need them. It is a classic case of generalists vs specialists: the specialist is better suited to its niche. But the niche can disappear at any moment killing the specialist in the process. The generalist can also invade the niche. Looking at evolution there is not one single solution, and neither is there in Free software OSs.


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Fate of the *BSDs

Posted Nov 14, 2012 11:56 UTC (Wed) by ortalo (subscriber, #4654) [Link]

Very interesting. I am not sure the *BSD would like to see themselves as specialists however. They certainly want to be generalist OSes. However, this is certainly a flamewar-like issue, and I do not want to enter into it.

The niche issue is making me think a lot. Are there available niches in computing for the various BSDs? What is the status of their current ones?

OpenBSD selected the security niche. For me, it *seems* that Linux invades it, but that is not actually the case. Linux security is good. But OpenBSD targets paramount security and Linux in general avoids paranoid users. [1]
The real problem with this niche IMHO is that it does not pay. Funding a big development for security is probably doomed (if someone knows a way, please, contact me directly... ;-).
At some time, it seemed that they also targetted a niche that can be called "networking OS": via the addition of OpenNTP, OpenBGP, etc. Maybe it is still the case but it is a difficult niche too: Cisco iOS is there, as well as many of the networking equipment manufacturers. New big players are either developping their own proprietary solution or starting with Linux which has a good reputation (to say the least) in networking. Finally, like with any other big company, the "security" argument is definitely more for marketing than for real so it is not so decisive...
On the smaller scale, OpenBSD does not seem to want to go on small systems (WiFi boxes, SAN, etc) and OpenWRT&co. is already in that niche.
However, I still think this is a nice idea. Networking is really a place where paramount security would be useful, because it would allow us to forget about it, but not in big networks... Personnally, I would select home security as the niche here (networked home of course;-); it may be the only one that really pays (look at the price of that home alarm system...). But that involves porting to small hardware and well, it seems that's a big step.
There is also potential interaction with mobile devices (smartphone, etc.) - a niche to avoid because of all the predators in it... However, in the longer term it opens the path to industrial control systems and there, the "security" thing could have the same effect as in the home and bring back momentum (only in networking if Linux gets there first as he will probably do).

FreeBSD selected the performance on x86 niche last time I checked. It worked for some time, but Linux is a generalist with a passion for performance too so... Hopefully the niche is big enough for several players to exist. (I wouldn't bet on that, but I am no good investor at all.)

DragonflyBSD selected innovation. Well, nice, while you can have new ideas to innovate with. But no need to worry for the short term: computer science is just 40 years old, new ideas are still plenty. Skilled developpers to implement them are available too (and do not get highly paid jobs in the industry anymore). Passion is a good niche after all (without the drawbacks of paranoia... ;-). Getting out of it is the problem (NB: for paranoia too... ;-)).

NetBSD selected portability. Well, it would be interesting to analyze why it was not selected to be on smartphones and tablets then.
I do not know enough of this OS to speak about it however.

So what are we left with? What are the niches that would allow *BSD not only to survive, but to develop and possibly come back competing with other generalists? At least, that's a nice way to look at the issue. Thanks for the comment.

[1] Linux with some specific patches does compete with OpenBSD but probably lack the "full OS" and "security first moto" advantage of OpenBSD. (Ouch, I know some other readers will want react to that paragraph: sending to footnote... Please comment separately. ;-)

Fate of the *BSDs

Posted Nov 14, 2012 16:35 UTC (Wed) by andreasb (subscriber, #80258) [Link]

> NetBSD selected portability. Well, it would be interesting to analyze why it was not selected to be on smartphones and tablets then.

While it may have the widest hardware support of the BSDs, it certainly can't hold a candle to Linux. They always boasted about the large number of supported platforms aka ports, whereas in Linux you would usually count architectures. Then it doesn't look so good: NetBSD supported platforms list contains 10 architectures including one that Linux doesn't support (VAX), Linux supports 27 if I counted correctly.

Even looking at platforms it doesn't look very exciting. Collected under ARM you find many StrongARM, XScale, and ARM9 but not a single Cortex (though there does appear to exist a port to the ARM11 Raspberry Pi).

Without researching it right now I would say that Linux has eclipsed NetBSD in the portability business at least a decade ago.

Fate of the *BSDs

Posted Nov 14, 2012 16:52 UTC (Wed) by man_ls (subscriber, #15091) [Link]

Thinking a bit about it, software and life forms are probably very different. Perhaps software is much more adaptable than DNA and the generalist always tends to win, because it can adapt to multiple environments at the same time.

Google, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter... At least on the net there is not an "ecosystem"; almost everything turns to a monoculture with ever-increasing speed. There is no room for competitors, and the generalist tends to win (or perhaps the specialist can generalize without losing adaptative power).

If this is the case, then the *BSDs don't have a future anywhere, any more than the OSs mentioned in grandparent (Amiga, CP/M) or than relics like Multics or Unix System V. Linux (the kernel) is eating their lunch and GNU userland is the future.

But somehow this doesn't seem to be the case, particularly in the Linux userland: KDE and GNOME have prospered for a long time, right now we have llvm, Firefox and Chrome coexist with proprietary variants... So perhaps they do have a future and all they need is even more specialization. Or a different scope. What is clear is that as generalist OSs they have lost the match.

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