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mobile computers replacing desktopmobile computers replacing desktopPosted Sep 10, 2012 6:53 UTC (Mon) by giraffedata (subscriber, #1954)In reply to: mobile computers replacing desktop by khim Parent article: Improving Ubuntu's application upload process
I'm comparing two markets of almost identical sizes I wondered why you were comparing markets at all. We were having a discussion about whether mobile computing would replace desktop computing, and the figures you cited were in fact only tangentially related to that question. The figures that would help with that are how fast the number of people with mobile computers is growing and how fast the number of people with desktop computers is declining (if at all). The sales numbers totally skip the disposal side of the equation, and the high growth rate of sales is less predictive when you realize there's a saturation point. As for the matter of Lenovo taking over IBM's personal computer product line, I'm afraid I've become lost in the analogies again, and I can't see what that teaches us about whether desktop computing will still be around as mobile computing grows.
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mobile computers replacing desktop Posted Sep 10, 2012 13:16 UTC (Mon) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] The figures that would help with that are how fast the number of people with mobile computers is growing. This is what the numbers above show, isnt't it? With market which is growing as fast as smartphones are growing disposal side of the equation is not relevant yet: 50% of smartphones ever sold were sold in the last 18 months. We can safely assume they all are still in use. And how fast the number of people with desktop computers is declining (if at all). It's growing right now :-) Disruptive collapse will happen later. UNIX workstations grew for more then decade after introduction of personal computers. In fact DEC was portrayed as unstoppable force and as pinnacle of business acumen in 1980th. Business Week warned IBM in 1986: "Taking on Digital Equipment Corp. these days is like standing in front of a moving train." This was five years after introduction of IBM PC! As for the matter of Lenovo taking over IBM's personal computer product line, I'm afraid I've become lost in the analogies again, and I can't see what that teaches us about whether desktop computing will still be around as mobile computing grows. It shows what happens when you try to stop the disruptive collapse. IBM owned the PC market. Heck, it created the "IBM PC-compatibles" market. But this happened because this thing was not created by "big IBM" (this attempt predictably failed), it was created by semi-autonomous group. When "big IBM" realized what happened it immediately tried to change the direction to make sure they have control over market. It tried to make sure personal computers will be confined it it's niche and will not hurt sales of RS/6000 and big iron with PS/2 and OS/2. It failed, of course, and IBM eventually relented, but by that time it was too late: ThinkPads were (and are) good devices (as were PS/1), and they are quite popular among some users (ThinkPads, not PS/1), but ultimately IBM was unable to keep up with a PC market.
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