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Sorry, but here you are wrong.Sorry, but here you are wrong.Posted Jan 23, 2012 16:01 UTC (Mon) by khim (subscriber, #9252)In reply to: Poettering: systemd for Administrators, Part XII by dskoll Parent article: Poettering: systemd for Administrators, Part XII
The network effect is the same reason Google+ is dead in the water. Even if Google+ were by some objective measure "better" than Facebook, it doesn't matter. All your friends are on Facebook, so you'll go on Facebook too. By this logic Facebook should be dead, too: five years ago "all your friends" were on MySpace. And before that they all used Friendster. I'm not saying Google+ will kill the Facebook - I just point out that network effects, while powerful, can be overcome. Not if you shoot yourself in the foot every five minutes, of course.
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Sorry, but here you are wrong. Posted Jan 23, 2012 16:23 UTC (Mon) by dskoll (subscriber, #1630) [Link] By this logic Facebook should be dead, too: five years ago "all your friends" were on MySpace. And before that they all used Friendster. The key here is timing. Facebook came at just the right time when social networking was ready to explode. Also, when Facebook was launched, Myspace wasn't as overwhelmingly dominant as Windows was when Linux actually became usable on the desktop. Microsoft came at just the right time when PCs exploded. (Before MS-DOS, "everyone" used CP/M or some other system, but Microsoft got a lucky break.) By the time Linux really was viable as a desktop system ~1999 or so, Microsoft was utterly entrenched with a huge community and network effect. Linux may eventually eat away at Microsoft's market share, but it's going to take a very long time. It will also take a few major mis-steps on Microsoft's part to erode their enormous market advantage.
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