It seems pretty universal. I've seen similar... phenomena in many other fields. The Guardian newspaper over in the UK did a series of articles on risk assessment and achievement assessment, which claimed to show that people are bad at both.
To bring this back to IT, it does demonstrate (to me, anyways) that we do need something analogous to Formal Methods. We need objective tools and techniques for ensuring the correctness of what is done meets the desired standard. Formal Methods are not much used because they are difficult to use well and transfer almost the entire effort into getting things right the first time.
(Consider how long it takes a project in Linux to go from first idea to an ultra-stable form, along with all the developers and testers it needs to do that. Now make that the up-front cost before anything is released at all.)
Posted Dec 24, 2011 8:07 UTC (Sat) by mordae (subscriber, #54701)
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Yeah, we need to fix the insane hunt for low costs first. :-\
Merry Christmas from FreeBSD
Posted Dec 24, 2011 9:27 UTC (Sat) by oldtomas (guest, #72579)
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[...] it does demonstrate (to me, anyways) that we do need something analogous to Formal Methods.
I respectfully disagree. Formal Methods is a tool. What we need is education and culture.
Tools without the corresponding culture tend to evolve into monstrous red tape generators. Have you witnessed an Agile Team in a big corp lately?
People have to understand and approve the tools they use.