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Anyone know what their methodology for supporting either of those claims?
A Linux Mint 12 preview
Posted Nov 7, 2011 20:22 UTC (Mon) by smoogen (subscriber, #97)
Posted Nov 7, 2011 20:38 UTC (Mon) by jspaleta (subscriber, #50639)
Now the movement of Mint in distrowatch rankiing is indeed very interesting. But distrowatch is not a trendable metric as it stands. The distrowatch numbers are very easily misinterpreted because of the way distrowatch has chosen to represent the average over a long timescale.
For example. Right now Mint is leading on the 6month 3month 1month and 7day averages. This does _NOT_ mean that 6 months ago or 3 months ago or even 1 month ago that Mint was dominant. 3 weeks ago Mint was not leading those long time averages. There is a significant spike in interest ongoing for the last couple of weeks and its big enough to impact even the 6 month average.
Spikes in interest will retroactively impact all the other timescale estimates. People continually misinterpret what those numbers mean. What Distrowatch really needs to do is to take their 7 day average and then provide an historic trending plot of that. There is far more information in the historic trend of the 7day average than the continually updated 6month average.
And even then, distrowatch's 7day average is at best a measure of "interest" or "buzz". Once you are a user of distribution you are less likely to click through a distrowatch page to read about the distro you are already using. People still looking for something different than what they are using are more likely to click on competitors. This makes it very difficult to use distrowatch as a userbase estimate (and they admit as much in their writeup of their stats). It is at best an estimate of "buzz". What is fascinating to me is that distrowatch as a "buzz" metric is completely uncorrelated with google trends metric. The current uptick
in Mint's distrowatch interest level is not mimicked in the Google trends data for "Mint", even though Google trends is itself a different way to measure "buzz."
Posted Nov 7, 2011 22:18 UTC (Mon) by Topaz (guest, #60130)
Posted Nov 7, 2011 22:21 UTC (Mon) by misc (subscriber, #73730)
While that's a joke from me and I am in no way affiliated to linux mint and completely clueless on that point, I strongly suspect that's the real explanation.
Counting Windows as a single OS would be false IMHO, so I suspect that the 3 first place would me microsoft products ( xp, 7, and 2k8 ). That let OS X as 4th, and likely 5th, or vista. Then we can start to find various Linux distribution and based on my own experience at the lug and various events, Linux Mint is no in the top 5.
What amaze me is the number of comment on the blog, and the fact that no one question neither the stats, nor the whole business plan and the lack of detailed financial report ( cause 3500$ a month is enough to pay one person full time, and that's not negligible ).
Posted Nov 7, 2011 23:26 UTC (Mon) by Lennie (subscriber, #49641)
That is exactly what they are thinking.
I don't know what the browser string of the browsers on Linux Mint looks like, but it doesn't show up on these reports:
I guess as Linux Mint has a distro based on Ubuntu and one on Debian it probably has Ubuntu or Debian in the string as well.
So we can't compare.
Posted Nov 7, 2011 23:43 UTC (Mon) by jspaleta (subscriber, #50639)
Any linux distribution shipping officially branded firefox by default and conforming to the constraints that Mozilla places on trademark usage will no longer be differentiated in these stats. It's already started to impact the Ubuntu stats significantly in the last couple of months, There is an accelerated downward trend in "Ubuntu" over the span of several months that can only be reasonably accounted for by this user agent string policy change. I fear that people will misattribute the drop in Ubuntu wikimedia user agents stats I expect to see after the 12.04 LTS release as a reduction in Ubuntu usage. And that would be a real shame.
Posted Nov 7, 2011 23:48 UTC (Mon) by Lennie (subscriber, #49641)
Posted Nov 7, 2011 23:57 UTC (Mon) by jspaleta (subscriber, #50639)
You should read up on how they get their stats.
Posted Nov 8, 2011 6:42 UTC (Tue) by misc (subscriber, #73730)
There is usually project blogs that carry much more informations, and others specific source of news ( at least in the case of ubuntu and others ).
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