Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere [LWN.net]

Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere

Posted Nov 1, 2011 9:08 UTC (Tue) by AlexHudson (subscriber, #41828) [Link]

"By 14.04 LTS Ubuntu will power tablets, phones, TVs and smart screens from the car to the office kitchen, and it will connect those devices cleanly and seamlessly to the desktop, the server and the cloud."

This opening vision statement says pretty much everything about what Mark's offering: dreams and hopes, and little more. The likelihood of me being able to go out and buy an Ubuntu-powered tablet from a shop in 2014 is limited; phones/TVs/cars/fridges is a pipe-dream.

If ever there was a case study of "not invented here", I'm sure Canonical would have a chapter all to itself. They've developed their own file sharing system, their own music store, their own server management framework, their own cloud deployment software, their own graphical desktop system, their own bug tracking software, their own revision control system, the list goes on and on. And what does it buy them? Some of these are nicer than alternatives, but they're not earth-shattering by any means, they're not the most popular option on the market, and they're not broadly compatible with other options.

Every single one of those decisions to develop something new, in some new area, carries a little more overhead: a little more engineering, a little more support. Diversification isn't a business model, and I'm pretty sure that they could have actually hit break-even or (shudder) become profitable if they'd focussed on one thing, and given customers a clear message and road-map about what they do.

Even being bank-rolled by Shuttleworth they can't continue to spread out further and further without reality hitting some time down the road. Europe looks set for another recession next year, other businesses in the same areas are going to be cutting, becoming leaner and more focussed. It's difficult to see how Canonical can be competitive with this strategy.

Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere

Posted Nov 1, 2011 14:16 UTC (Tue) by rvfh (subscriber, #31018) [Link]

> This opening vision statement says pretty much everything about what Mark's offering: dreams and hopes, and little more. The likelihood of me being able to go out and buy an Ubuntu-powered tablet from a shop in 2014 is limited; phones/TVs/cars/fridges is a pipe-dream.

Why can't you guys just give it a chance? What place do you see for Linux once Microsoft and Sony join Apple with an integrated world where phones/tablets/TVs/etc... interconnect seamlessly?

It's not a dream, it's a necessity: either we can do it or we will be only a kernel in a number of phones, and an operating system for servers and routers. No more.

Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere

Posted Nov 1, 2011 15:19 UTC (Tue) by AlexHudson (subscriber, #41828) [Link]

I'm happy to give anything a chance, but giving something a chance doesn't mean you necessarily *rate* the chance. Buying a lottery ticket would be a great example.

The problem with this whole "integrated world" idea is that Canonical just don't own the world. It's a complete boil-the-ocean type idea that needs a huge amount of traction to get anywhere.

You only need to look at bigger, more experienced players, who are totally failing at this stuff. Apple have successfully integrated iPhone and iPad. But their TV stuff is no-where (right now). They're not in cars, and as far as I know don't plan to be. Google have a similar story, including sucky TV. Microsoft's Media Centre is vaguely successful (in that people use it), and the TV story on XBox/Playstation is obviously much more successful. Canonical are not getting on XBox/Playstation, though, I can tell you that for free.

Why would manufacturers turn to Canonical, anyway? The likes of Samsung, Sony, Philips, etc., all the people making this equipment - they have their own engineering depts. already.

To succeed in this dream, people need to be buying Ubuntu Phones in good numbers. In 2014, Android and iOS are still going to be the big players, and maybe Microsoft won't be the joke they are now. Are we really saying that Canonical can succeed in that market? Seriously?

If Unity truly does become available, commercially, on phones / TVs / fridges / whatever, Canonical will be basically in control of the entire user experience over a range of different products. I ask you: which manufacturer is going to be brave enough and willing to hand over that control?

Ubuntu is a reasonably successful Linux operating system. How successful is open to debate, but I think everyone can agree it's pretty popular and hopefully millions of people use it. But I can't go out on the high street and buy an Ubuntu laptop/computer, and it's pretty difficult to do it online. Dell used to have a section where you can do that; it's almost gone bar some business machines and this experiment they're trying in China. It's not just not growing, they're actually losing ground there.

Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere

Posted Nov 2, 2011 18:10 UTC (Wed) by rsidd (subscriber, #2582) [Link]

Why would manufacturers turn to Canonical, anyway? The likes of Samsung, Sony, Philips, etc., all the people making this equipment - they have their own engineering depts. already. To succeed in this dream, people need to be buying Ubuntu Phones in good numbers. In 2014, Android and iOS are still going to be the big players, and maybe Microsoft won't be the joke they are now. Are we really saying that Canonical can succeed in that market? Seriously?

Your answer is more or less contained in that quote. To take the second paragraph first: there are two big players now, of which iOS is ruled out for anyone who's not Apple. Android is (a) somewhat flaky and (b) tightly controlled by Google, which is not a totally open and friendly set-up -- which is why Nokia went with the "joke" Microsoft. So there is certainly space for an alternative out there. And the vendors know it. Indeed, of the companies you name, Samsung has its own OS, Bada; Sony has been transitioning from Symbian to Android but doesn't seem wholeheartedly committed to the latter; and Philips doesn't exist in the mobile/tablet/computer space, so I'm not sure how they're relevant here.

The problem is supply, not demand. Ubuntu has the advantage of a huge existing software base, thanks to linux. If they can produce an OS that fits the needs of phone, tablet and computer vendors, I think they are in business. Ubuntu today doesn't cut it, which, I imagine, is why Shuttleworth is aiming for 2014. It took less time than that for Android to take over the mobile space.

Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere

Posted Nov 3, 2011 8:32 UTC (Thu) by jonasj (guest, #44344) [Link]

"which is why Nokia went with the "joke" Microsoft."

I think it's more because Microsoft managed to get one of their top people appointed CEO of Nokia...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Elop

Shuttleworth: Ubuntu on phones, tablets, TV's and smart screens everywhere

Posted Nov 3, 2011 9:43 UTC (Thu) by rsidd (subscriber, #2582) [Link]

Yeah, everyone knows he's from Microsoft. Which is exactly why it's probably not that simple.

Instead of smoking pipe dreams, buy webOS

Posted Nov 1, 2011 10:22 UTC (Tue) by aryonoco (subscriber, #55563) [Link]

By the time Shuttleworth gets Ubuntu into a usable shape for tablets and phones, Windows 8 has had two years to get polished and with iOS and Android as incumbents, there would be no space for Ubuntu.

Polishing Unity for tablets/smartphones might be doable, but how do you get the thousands of third-party apps in the software store to be magically touch friendly?

Canonical would be much better off buying webOS from HP. Seriously, it's already Linux, using a lot of the same components that Ubuntu uses like gstreamer, pulse audio, gdbm, webkit, parted, etc. It would be so much more feasable to buy webOS and over time merge it with the Ubuntu Desktop, and they would have a solid contender with a respectable fan-base right away in the tablet/smartphone area.

If HP's sale price for webOS is right, Canonical should really think about it. And if/when they release it as free software, the goodwill that that will generate would be tremendous and would ensure an instant following.

Of course, buying webOS is no guarantee for commercial success (far from it), but it's the best thing that currently is designed for tablets/smartphones and that can be remotely called 'Linux'.