The second approach would make it impossible to run boxed copies of Windows on Windows logo hardware, and also impossible to install new versions of Windows unless your OEM provided a new signed copy. The former seems more likely.
I don't agree, this second option seems more likely for some and maybe even the majority of vendors.
Every time the new version of Windows doesn't work with their printer, scanner, etc. many people go to the store and buy a brand new one. Doing this repeatedly hasn't hurt these vendors, on the contrary.
Utterly disabling second hand resale value and crippling long term usefulness of your product is an _excellent_ strategy for consumer products. Ethically dubious, but not technically criminal and certainly profitable, what's not to like?