The most compelling evidence are the logs of revocation checks at DigiNotar for the fake certificates[1]. The logs show, Fox-IT says, that over 200K unique IPs made a check, almost all in Iran, suggesting they were served the fake certificate when visiting Google. Here's the graphical depiction of what it shows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wZsWoSxxwVY
That implies that an active MITM attack, proxied over the majority of Iranian net space. While it seems pretty clear that a single determined independent hacker could have broken through Comodo and DigiNotar's defences, rolling out this kind of pervasive infrastructural surveillance would require the complicity of multiple Iranian ISPs.
I think the best bet right now is what is now a depressingly common combination -- indie blackhats doing the penetrations, and state actors buying and deploying what they find.
Posted Sep 8, 2011 9:03 UTC (Thu) by quotemstr (subscriber, #45331)
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Thank you for linking to the report; it's as damning as you say. I'm actually surprised that the MITM attack was so brazen: I wonder whether more careful use of the forged certificates might have opened a longer window for more targeted surveillance. (Of course, such an attack may be ongoing, and I'd rate the likelihood of such a thing far higher than I would have three months ago.) If a complete and sustained CA compromise, a coverup, and a large-scale MITM attack don't lead to changes in how we allocate trust, it'll be hard to believe that anything else will.