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20% desktop market share by mid-200620% desktop market share by mid-2006Posted Aug 15, 2003 17:09 UTC (Fri) by tjc (guest, #137)In reply to: 20% desktop market share by mid-2006 by AnswerGuy Parent article: Global IT firm predicts Linux will have 20% desktop market share by 2008 (NewsForge) Linux is likely to reach 10% by the end of 2004 or mid-2005 (it's hovering close to 5% now, world wide). After that there will be an accelerated inrush and it can double in just one more year. I think all such speculation -- yours, mine, NewsForges, whoevers -- has a high probablility of error as far as the timing is concerned. One thing I think is safe to say is that once we pass the inflection point where the benefits outweigh the obstacles that adoption will be rapid, perhaps very rapid. This point will vary from company to company, and from industry to industry, but I think the obstacles are great enough that it will be like a giant toggle switch: it will take sustained effort to get to the half-way point, but once there it will snap over hard to the other side. The second half of this process will be more fun to watch than the first. :-) Currently it appears that desktop Linux and OpenOffice.org adoption by government and educational institutions (in the U.S. and abroad, and including grade and secondary schools) is driving up the adoption rate considerably. Open Office as an alternative to MSFT Office is a big piece of the puzzle, but the real obstacle is the thousands of smaller apps produced by 3rd party ISVs that most companies, organizations, and industries depend on. It's not likely that there will be enough interest on the part of volunteers to produce open source alternatives to all of these 3rd party apps. To get past the midway point Linux will have to be deployed by enough companies in areas that don't depend on such 3rd party apps (customer service and point of sales systems, for example) that Linux starts looking like a lucrative market to these 3rd party ISVs.
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20% desktop market share by mid-2006 Posted Aug 21, 2003 20:17 UTC (Thu) by crouchet (guest, #1084) [Link] >>Open Office as an alternative to MSFT Office is a big piece of the puzzle, but the real obstacle is the thousands of smaller apps produced by 3rd party ISVs that most companies, organizations, and industries depend on. It's not likely that there will be enough interest on the part of volunteers to produce open source alternatives to all of these 3rd party apps.<< I don't think this is really the issue. Sure, there are lots of those specialized programs out there and the users will not move until they can get than functionality on Linux but that really is only a small fraction of the people who use PCs. We have long seen some users who were tied to a particular OS or hardware such as Apple or SGI because the one program that would do their special task would ONLY run there. That did not stop the adoption of Windoze and it will not stop Linux. Linux now has all the tools most users will need on their desktop. The issues now are old familiar issues: Those making purchasing decisions are not personally familiar with Linux and are therefore wary; ANY migration is a hassle; IT only wants to support one os (and preferably force everyone to have identical desktops and software installations); unlike most LWN readers, most users hate it when anything changes on thier computer. The answer to all of these is simple: keep using and improving Linux and give it time.
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