Strikingly similar to the whole Jenkins/Hudson fork (http://jenkins-ci.org/content/hudsons-future): First bully the community Sun had built around a product (Hudson/OO.org) into a fork. Then some months later, donate same project to some foundation (Eclipse/ASF). Watch the fork doing considerably better than the foundation version (https://wiki.jenkins-ci.org/pages/viewpage.action?pageId=... very interesting read!).
LO was merging OO.org code in already. I don't see what changes with moving that OO.org code to ASF. They got their infrastructure, they are doing releases, they are being supported by major distributors. I hope/believe the LO community has the same momentum as the Jenkins one has.