For a long time i shared your exact sentiment (i'd even place the 'pure luck' and 'good naming' proportion much higher than 40%), but then i had to admit that the phenomenal success of the "Git" project is somewhat of an outlier! :-)
So a proper, scalable development model (and, of course, good timing) matters a lot and can offset a bad name.
But yeah, i definitely agree that the "Freux" or "Freax" name would probably have been somewhat of an embarrassment with time, especially for desktop and business users.
(Just like dropping the cool minerals naming scheme (Beryl, Emerald, etc.) and going back to the dry and uninspiring "Compiz" name [for pure ego reasons!] was a disaster for that project, in terms of developer interest and growth.)