If the stock market were completely random, it would be completely useless. The whole reason for having a stock market is to allocate money to companies that will use that money in productive ways. We've already tried replacing markets with central planning committees-- it was called communism. It didn't work.
Obviously, markets have a lot of problems and inefficiencies. A lot of mutual fund managers are overpaid for the small amount of research that they do. Sometimes the market over-allocates resources to one sector, like housing. But just because the market has inefficiencies, or Warren Buffet is having trouble finding a successor, doesn't somehow indicate that the market is completely random.
Despite your professed love for quantifiable data, you haven't really presented that much hard evidence for me to argue against. What I would like to argue against is your fatalistic attidue. You seem to view yourself as a helpless pawn of all-powerful external forces.
Ironically, optimism-- or at any rate, the will to keep on going-- is one of the best predictors I know of success-- and not just in business. If you look at any open source leader, any entrepreneur, successful politician-- whatever-- you will find that one thing they have in common is that they believe in themselves and their abilities.
One book you might be interested in is "The Drunkard's Walk" by Leonard Mlodinow, a physicist at Caltech. In it, he puts forth some pretty convincing arguments that life is more random than we think. Mlodinow has a statistician's focus on hard data and it's pretty interesting. The performance of mutual fund managers, the outcome of the world series, and the decisions of Hollywood producers are all revealed as being more random than we might think. He also takes a swing a Bill Gates, claiming that he was just in the right place in the right time. Personally, I disagree-- I think Gates would have been at least moderately successful in any place and time. Anyway, you might enjoy the book.