> running out of IPs has no effect on current businesses...
This was historically true, even in the US. The future is looking different. If they are accessed by mobile devices (4G rollouts are all dual-stack-lite, i.e. native v6, carrier NAT for the legacy v4 stuff), or have an asian supply chain, or a government contract - they are going to need v6 externally ASAP. Those who linger on legacy v4 are going to be dealing with a degrading access experience after late 2012, while the v6 folks will be getting improvements instead. So businesses need to work on v6. Given that there aren't many v6-only services yet, consumers should just sit on their hands for 6-18 months while their ISP's and the modem & wifi vendors get their act together.
The timeline I'm expecting is along the lines of IANA runs out of v4 in February, v4-exhaustion makes the front page of the mainstream press, and the CEO's all panic. Northern hemisphere RIR's run out by late fall, ISP's mostly run out in 2012. That makes 2013 the real year of the "IPocalypse", as new v4 will be non-existent but v6 won't be universally available world-wide until, say, 2015. The tipping point is when v6 is broadly available, and something shiny is v6-only; this could be the 2014 Christmas holiday shopping season, brought on by some nifty asian electronic toy that ten year olds want. Three years after the tipping point, say 2017, figure 99% of internet traffic is v6. And while there wasn't an economic incentive to deploy v6 prior to v4 exhaustion, the roughly 18:1 decrease in backbone router CPU load for v6-only gives a heck of an incentive to ditch v4, so figure the tier-1 ISP's will schedule a flag day for 3 years after that, and turn off v4-routing around 2020. After which the smidge of remaining v4 will have to be tunneled over v6 until the last v4 device is retired, around 2036. Of course, everyone who has predicted the future of v6 has been wrong, so take my views with a grain (or even a peck) of salt.
The analogies I'm currently favoring are that v4->v6 is like either the conversion from analog to digital TV, or to standard gauge railroad tracks. It's not like Y2K for consumers: there is no hard deadline and it will be visible in that they'll have to buy new routers and modems. It's a little like Y2K for programmers, in that they'll have to port to new API's and cope with longer addresses in different formats.