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IPv6 *is* like AMDIPv6 *is* like AMDPosted Jan 28, 2011 8:48 UTC (Fri) by khim (subscriber, #9252)In reply to: IPv6 *is* like AMD by cmccabe Parent article: LCA: IP address exhaustion and the end of the open net
Ad hominem attacks against DJB-- or anyone else for that matter-- don't prove anything. Sure, but noone attacks DJB. They attack DJBfiles who push his stupid paln against any logic. And the only question people are asking is: how will this solve real problem - the lack of agreement among ISPs? The successful transitions always involved a "no regressions" philosophy where existing setups would continue to work just as well, or possibly better, after being upgraded. Sure. That's why you hand-picked them, right? Let's consider different set of successful transitions: LP to CD, VHS to DVD, TV to DTV, and, heck, even NCP to IPv6. In all cases transition made existing setups either completely useless with no upgrade path or required to change setup just to have the same amount of basic functionality. Now let's consider all these cases one-after-another. LP -> CD: it was supported from the day one by recording companies. They agreed to participate before the first sale of equipment happened. VHS -> DVD: the same. Earlier VHS-relpacements (like Laserdisk or Video-CD) were unable to only to replace VHS but to even gain significant traction. Yet DVD pushed VHS to obscurity even if "existing setups" become useless and "upgrade" was worse in many cases (most DVD players had no recording capabilities). Dual-stack players were used for some time, but when major studios stopped selling VHS with new movies - it went away. TV -> DTV: you needed adapters to watch old channels. Switch was successful because neither TV stations nor users had a choice. NCP -> IPv4: the same. Internet backbone was switched to IPv4 and you had no way to continue to use Internet without upgrade. x86 -> x86_64: stagnated for years, only become mainstream when Microsoft (which had a monopoly) started pushing Windows x64 hard. When it was just an offer (Windows XP x64) it was mostly ignored. Apple's PPC -> x86 transition: my way or the highway. Apple just stopped offering PPC hardware so you had to update - or lose Mac users as customers. DOS -> Windows: this is the closest case to the IPv4 -> IPv6 transition. Windows was promised in Las-Vegas in 1983, showed in 1985, stagnated for years (the first version to gained recognition and not laughs was Windows 3.0 released in 1990) and it only "killed" DOS when Microsoft stopped selling MS DOS separately after release of Windows 95. Some examples of failed transitions are Commodore 64 to Commodore 128, x86 to Itanium, and the Apple ][ to the Apple III. Commodore 64 -> Commodore 128: good example. Unlike Commodore Plus/4 this model was compatible with Commodore 64. Yet it didn't help because computing ladscape changed and people switched to incompatible offers (IBM PC and Mac). x86 -> Itanium. Itanium successfully killeed incompatible Alpha, PA-RISC, and MIPS (this one only workstations; it was revived as embedded CPU), yet failed to do the same with compatible i386 - because there it had viable and cheaper rival. Apple ][ -> the Apple III: Again - business moved to incompatibe IBM PC, not to compatible Apple III. There were many reasons, but in the end it was because alternative was available and it was just better. The failed transitions all have something in common: the people in charge underestimated the importance of having a transition plan. Well, not exactly. In all cases there was a transition plan - but people found another, often incompatible alternative - and used that. Transition plan is important, that's absolutely true, but the compatibility itself is not important. In you examples of unsuccessful transitions two times out of three people switched to incompatible alternative where "existing setups" were useless - not to compatible, yet unwanted, "upgrade". Of course, you're free to disagree with me and insist that IP is fundamentally different than the other transitions described above. But at least give reasons. It's not different at all: people are choosing the best alternative available. If it's compatible or not is of little importance. Concerted push (like with DVD) or monopoly (like with DTV) may change things rapidly, but "better compatibility mode" only helps you if you have strong backers.
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IPv6 *is* like AMD Posted Jan 28, 2011 18:24 UTC (Fri) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
In the case of the LP to CD and VHS to DVD transitions, the dynamic was different. Owning a shiny new CD or DVD was a status symbol, so consumers were willing to pay more. The quality of the user experience was dramatically better on the new media. Also, CDs and DVDs were priced higher than LPs or VHS, so the business community made more money off of them. Even so, it took decades for the transition to really happen-- and for some older people, it hasn't happened even now.
In the case of TV to DTV, there was a government mandate to get the transition done. Enough said.
In the case of the Apple III, there were a bunch of problems. It had Apple II emulation, sure, but that was "intentionally hobbled" (according to Wikipedia). There were some plain old engineering mistakes like circuit boards malfunctioning because they were poorly designed. The Apple II was Apple's bestselling model ever, as a percentage of the market. They've never again had the same level of success since Steve Jobs decided to torpedo it and start with something completely incompatible.
Did Itanium kill off Alpha, PA-RISC, and the rest? Well, sort of. Intel made threatening noises and those companies basically decided to fold. The fact that Itanium was later a flop makes the whole situation kind of funny.
The truth is, though, it probably wasn't economically viable any more for those companies to compete with Intel/AMD in high-performance computing. Intel's process technology is so far superior to anything they have access to that that kind of competition is a joke. And the HPC market is so small that it can't support the kind of investment in process technology that Intel makes every year. HPC clusters now are built with Intel or AMD's latest, not with PA-RISC.
As I said before, it's a matter of motivation. Figure out who the key stakeholders are, and get them on board with the transition. Give them a reason to upgrade, rather than just telling them to do it for the good of the galaxy.
Agree 100% Posted Jan 28, 2011 21:22 UTC (Fri) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] As I said before, it's a matter of motivation. Figure out who the key stakeholders are, and get them on board with the transition. Give them a reason to upgrade, rather than just telling them to do it for the good of the galaxy. Well, sure, I agree. I just want to point out that this position is radically different from your previous position: the successful transitions always involved a "no regressions" philosophy where existing setups would continue to work just as well, or possibly better, after being upgraded. Backward compatibility is important, but it that important. You've already showed good case: Apple ][ -> Apple III transition. Apple III had some issues, true, but it was backward-compatible. And while it had some issues with compatibility it was not the problem. The problem was much simpler: price of Apple ][ was between $1298-$2638 (for 48KB) while price of Apple III was $4340-$7800 and price of incompatible IBM PC was $1565 (for 16KB). Give them a reason to upgrade, rather than just telling them to do it for the good of the galaxy. Well, sometimes you must do something "for the good of the galaxy" - in these case government mandate does wonders. The IPv6 designers were naive not because they refused to go with insane DJB's scheme, but because they insisted for 20 years that it's internal IT-industry affair. It was easy to solve the problem by forcibly moving everyone to IPv6 in year or two. Witness how fast the problem of incompatible phone power adapters was solved. Given the motivation ISP may do a lot to ease these transition process - but why should they? Nobody is paying them and nobody punishes them...
Agree 100% Posted Jan 31, 2011 2:11 UTC (Mon) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
From the wikipedia article on the Apple III:
> Originally intended as a direct replacement to the Apple II series, it was
So, in other words, the Apple III had backwards compatibility, but only of a crippled and limited kind. Itanium was the same story. It could run x86 code, sure-- very slowly.
> Witness how fast the problem of incompatible phone power adapters
When the EU created that mandate, it didn't magically make existing power adaptors stop working. It just affected the adaptors that were shipped in the future. So this isn't directly relevant to the compatibility debate.
> It was easy to solve the problem by forcibly moving everyone to IPv6 in
Maybe this reflects my ignorance, but I don't see why that would be easy, even with a government mandate. If compatibility between IPv4 and IPv6 is an "insane scheme," then what is the alternative? Just don't use the internet for "a year or two"? Come back soon-- under construction!
Nothing happens instantaneously. Even recalls of tainted food take a few weeks to happen. The lack of any transition plan seems very foolish.
> Given the motivation ISP may do a lot to ease these transition process -
The ISPs are motivated, all right-- motivated to use IPv4. Let's count the reasons:
1. IPv4 doesn't involve disrupting existing customer setups.
2. IPv4 creates an artificial scarcity of IP address blocks, which makes those blocks a "strategic resource" for the companies that own them.
3. IPv4 will allow ISPs to charge extra for things that are now free. For example, having your very own IP address, as opposed to NAT privileges, will one day cost you.
4. IPv4 will eventually force the use of NAT. NAT will make it even harder for customers to use P2P programs. Since, at least in the US, those P2P programs compete with the ISP's own "content offerings," that's all gravy to them. Comcast would love it if the new shape of the internet makes bittorrent impossible.
C.
Agree 100% Posted Jan 31, 2011 2:22 UTC (Mon) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
> Maybe this reflects my ignorance, but I don't see why that would be easy,
> even with a government mandate. If compatibility between IPv4 and IPv6 is > an "insane scheme," then what is the alternative? Just don't use the > internet for "a year or two"? Come back soon-- under construction!
I suppose one scheme that would have worked is giving everyone both an IPv6 and an IPv4 address-- then, taking away the IPv4 address after a few years.
The problem with this scheme is that, even if the US government mandated the transition, it's not clear that the rest of the world would follow. For example, France could decide that IPv6 wasn't such a great idea, and not mandate it. Since the US kind of likes being connected to the rest of the world, that would effectively derail the transition indefinitely.
Maybe it's time for a new saying to be coined: "If your transition plan requires a world dictator to implement, your transition plan is broken"
We've already discussed it... Posted Jan 31, 2011 11:53 UTC (Mon) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] Maybe this reflects my ignorance, but I don't see why that would be easy, even with a government mandate. If compatibility between IPv4 and IPv6 is an "insane scheme," then what is the alternative? Just don't use the internet for "a year or two"? Come back soon-- under construction! Why will you want this? By the date X no new connections without IPv6 are allowed, after date Y all connections with IPv4 must be upgraded, by date Z IPv4 is disabled. Simple and effective. Witness similar transition working as planned. Nothing happens instantaneously. Even recalls of tainted food take a few weeks to happen. The lack of any transition plan seems very foolish. The idea that it can be done using "market forces" is foolish as you've showed later. Where "market forces" does not work government should. The problem here was that IETF did so much without government mandates they believed they can convince ISPs to do the transition. 3. IPv4 will allow ISPs to charge extra for things that are now free. For example, having your very own IP address, as opposed to NAT privileges, will one day cost you. One day may cost you? "White" IP is rare commodity outside of US. It may cost you between $4 and $10 per month. Not a large sum, but if you'll recal that slowest NATed internet access is in the same price range... 4. IPv4 will eventually force the use of NAT. NAT will make it even harder for customers to use P2P programs.Well, it's a problem only for unpopular stuff. If there are 1000 people with the stuff you need/want someone will have "white IP". Yes, in the distant future it'll be a problem, but not today. Low-bandwidth P2P uses automatic relays (think Skype). Since, at least in the US, those P2P programs compete with the ISP's own "content offerings," that's all gravy to them. Comcast would love it if the new shape of the internet makes bittorrent impossible. Yup. And you have limited amount of local ISPs to choose from. Often just one. That's why government regulation makes sense.
We've already discussed it... Posted Jan 31, 2011 22:17 UTC (Mon) by dlang (✭ supporter ✭, #313) [Link]
who is going to enforce the 'after date X no IPv4 only connections are allowed'?
there is no Internet Dictator who can enforce a policy like this.
Why do you need an "Internet Dictator" ? Posted Feb 1, 2011 14:53 UTC (Tue) by khim (subscriber, #9252) [Link] there is no Internet Dictator who can enforce a policy like this. Actually there is as shown quite recently. You can easily enforce such rule in a single country and for internations efforts there are WTO and other similar organizations. It's not like Internet exist in vacuum and can exist government regulations... Yes, it's completely different approach from the existing one, but it's kinda strange to see so much energy expended on one kind of approach while another is completely ignored.
Why do you need an "Internet Dictator" ? Posted Feb 2, 2011 9:39 UTC (Wed) by cmccabe (guest, #60281) [Link]
Um, I don't think Egypt leaving the wider Internet shows that international cooperation always works well. I'm sure that the US isn't happy that they did that. Rather, it proves that the Internet is a patchwork of national networks and governments will get the last say, no matter what the international community thinks.
The WTO's powers are not what you seem to think. It's not like the WTO can give marching orders Hu Jintao or Barack Obama. Rather, the WTO is sort of a forum for nations to talk to each other. Both China and the US, and a lot of other countries, have anti-free trade policies that the WTO is powerless to change. For example, the US gives tons of subsidies to farmers, who then use it to undercut farmers in the third world. China keeps its currency artificially cheap to pump up exports, and tends not to enforce any intellectual property laws at all (unless the owner of said property is Chinese.)
Or think about the 2010 United Nations convention on climate change. China and India basically refused to agree to any greenhouse reductions at all. With the greatest possible tact and diplomacy, they said "screw you." China builds a new coal-fired power plant every day and has no plans to slow.
International cooperation may work in the case of the IPv6 transition. Then again, it may not. Time will tell.
We've already discussed it... Posted Feb 4, 2011 21:18 UTC (Fri) by sorpigal (subscriber, #36106) [Link] For IPv4->IPv6 to be like DTV we'd need for it to (1) only effect one country, (2) for that country's government to mandate that all new devices starting years prior to the cutoff date be compatible with the new system and (3) for there to be a millions of dollars allocated for the purpose of giving away compatible equipment.
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