Yeah, it was identified, so what?
Posted Jan 27, 2011 8:18 UTC (Thu) by khim
In reply to: This is where you are wrong...
Parent article: LCA: IP address exhaustion and the end of the open net
We are at the beginning? The problem was identified 20 years ago.
And so what? The need for 64-bit computing was clear 20 years ago, 64bit CPUs were produced in about that time, yet people only started to switch when Joe Average started reaching 4GB limit. Before that intermediate solutions like PAE were used. Compare with IPv4 -> IPv6: till IPv4 adddress space is not exhausted people are using IPv4. Even when it'll be exhausted people will continue to use IPv4 with band-aids like multi-level NAT. Only when pain is acute enough they will start to switch.
The brave people who are using IPv6 today can be compared to users of POWER/MIPS/SPARC/etc: they are numerous enough to iron bugs, but there are few of them because most users just don't need an IPv6 today (just like yesterday people were perfectly content with Xeon and 32GiB of RAM in PAE mode).
This is how market works: it's organically incapable of jumping from one "good" solution to another "better" solution if the intermediate steps go "down" (and in case of IPv4 -> IPv6 switch they do go down no matter what DJB says). "Good" solution must become "bad" first... And it'll only happen by 2012 or later. So yes, it is the beginning.
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