> There are more video portals out there than only Youtube. If Google
> decides to drop H.264 and cancel the contract with Apple (native iOS app),
> Apple will choose another platform. Frankly, I would welcome this
> decision. Youtube is a near monopoly, (real) competition is good for the
> market and everyone.
Youtube is not a monopoly. There are a ton of streaming video sites out there. By some measures, Hulu is already doing better than Youtube.
> I still find it very unlikely that any non-Google Android implementor will
> ever choose to boycott H.264 (without pressure from Google), so Apples
> Youtube competitor will have a good chance.
Implementors will be happy to support all the formats. The important question is which ones are going to get hardware acceleration. Google is probably hoping to make the answer "WebM" by leveraging their control of Youtube, Google video, Google Chrome, and Firefox.
As I understand it now, you currently can't watch YouTube on iOS through Safari. Instead, you have to use a separate app. If Google re-encodes with WebM, that situation can continue, except that the separate app can use (not-hardware-accelerated) WebM. Problem solved.
> Another point: Relative data in a growing market are misleading. Apple may
> not grow as fast as Android, but Apple grows in huge numbers absolute.
> Also "Android" is not a single vendor like Apple, but a platform. If you
> compare these numbers it's a bit like comparing the combined sales of
> automobiles from GM, Ford and Chrysler to Toyota.
Yeah, it's like comparing Macs to PCs. We all know that the proprietary standards Apple designs, like NuBus, ADB, Apple Display Port, and so on always wipe out the standard PC designs like PCI, VGA, and DVI. Oh, wait.
To be fair, sometimes Apple leads the market in adopting a standard technology like USB. But from the beginning, USB was a joint effort between HP, Microsoft, Intel, and others.
> And there is the tablet market, Google is not doing well there, I think
> there will not be a serious competitor until 2012 or 21013. When Google
> finally finishes Android 3 and the first tablets will appear, Apple
> already has the iPad 2 out. Google has a long way to catch up. Like any
> other competitor they will find it hard do deliver a *complete* and
> *consistent* system. Some parts are easy.
The reality distortion field must have blocked out the news that this year at CES was the "year of the tablet" and Android was the star of the show. The first Android tablets will appear in about -1 years (i.e., the past).