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2011 predictions2011 predictionsPosted Jan 6, 2011 5:06 UTC (Thu) by jtc (subscriber, #6246)Parent article: 2011 predictions
"ChromeOS will struggle this year. The need for another 'thin terminal' system is not entirely clear, especially once ChromeOS users discover that they can get a real Linux-based operating system on the same hardware."
IMO, ChromeOS will appeal mostly to non-geeks who are average or below-average in their tech/computer knowledge - users who just want to get things done with a minimum (none, if possible) of hassle and administrative tasks that don't directly relate to what they are trying to do. Most current computer users who fit this description are Windows users, of course; but once it becomes apparent that a system is available that provides for them the ease of use at least as good as (probably better than) Windows without the hassles (worrying about viruses/security problems, data backups, etc.) and having the same "desktop" and data available no matter where they are connecting from, most of them will gradually ditch Windows and move to ChromeOS, as will many young children who have not yet used a computer.
This does depend on timing - this new paradigm will not start to become the default setup for non-geeks for a few years (maybe 2 to 5), but it seems, to me, inevitable. Microsoft will try to keep its user base, of course, by convincing them to use its cloud-based services instead of ChromeOS, but I don't think they will succeed - they are not as agile nor as capable as google and aren't the dominant player they used to be.
Many people may be worried about control of data, privacy, security (in the cloud); but there will be enough demand that these issues be adequately (for them) addressed that those companies that are smart and responsive enough (which probably includes google) will do so.
A good proportion of people may want to run local apps, but I suspect that a larger proportion will (again, at the appropriate point in time) be quite satisfied with the cloud-based option. "ChromeOS will struggle this year." may turn out to be true, but I think 2012 will see it start an upward trend that will reach large popularity by, say, 2017. (I could be off - it might be not until 2023 or later and it may not be ChromeOS, but I think it [i.e., most - > 50% - people in the developed world using cloud-based systems much of the time] is inevitable at some point.)
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2011 predictions Posted Jan 6, 2011 10:35 UTC (Thu) by dan_b (subscriber, #22105) [Link]
I see ChromeOS going the same way as Linux-based netbooks did last time around (remember the eeepc?) - although it may in theory be a better fit for the completely non-technical user, what will happen in practice is that the non-technical user will ask their slightly more techie friend or relative for advice and the marginal techie will say "oh, that's a toy, you need something that runs Windows"
ChromeOS Posted Jan 6, 2011 15:16 UTC (Thu) by jtc (subscriber, #6246) [Link]
'the marginal techie will say "oh, that's a toy, you need something that runs Windows"'
Sure, this is a possibility - at least initially. But, from what I've seen, Microsoft is declining. It's been hammered in the smartphone market (WP7 looks, IMO, likely to not gain over 10% smartphone market share) and they're even less prepared in the tablet market. It's made a lot of foolish moves lately and does not appear to have the smarts (or flexibility) to adapt adequately to the changing environment (smartphones/tables, internet TV, cloud-based computing). I think the Windows/desktop-OS paradigm is going to be replaced eventually, as people realize how clunky it is compared to the new paradigm(s) and as more and more people start to realize that MS is not the all-accomplishing juggernaut they used to think it was.
Perhaps this change will come too late for ChromeOS, but I think it has a good chance of staying around long enough to catch the wave.
2011 predictions Posted Jan 13, 2011 15:25 UTC (Thu) by Wol (guest, #4433) [Link]
You miss the fact that linux-based netbooks disappeared from the market. I managed to get one in the bargain basement.
And from chatting to the salesgirl who sold it me, all the stuff about people having trouble, and returns, and the excuses as to why they disappeared, were absolute rubbish. They rushed off the shelves, and didn't come back ...
MS would love to make Android, and MeeGo, and that lot, disappear from the shop shelves. As soon as they lose the power to do that, they're dead in the water.
Cheers,
2011 predictions Posted Jan 6, 2011 16:19 UTC (Thu) by nye (guest, #51576) [Link]
>IMO, ChromeOS will appeal mostly to non-geeks who are average or below-average in their tech/computer knowledge - users who just want to get things done with a minimum (none, if possible) of hassle and administrative tasks that don't directly relate to what they are trying to do. Most current computer users who fit this description are Windows users, of course; but once it becomes apparent that a system is available that provides for them the ease of use at least as good as (probably better than) Windows without the hassles (worrying about viruses/security problems, data backups, etc.) and having the same "desktop" and data available no matter where they are connecting from, most of them will gradually ditch Windows and move to ChromeOS
I don't really agree with this. From my point of view non-geeks usually play games or use iTunes or Spotify or something else which ties them to Windows. Only geeks seem to use the web so exclusively that an OS like Chrome is a good fit.
Of course, if we're talking about a secondary, low-powered machine that you can take with you into the kitchen or the garden or so on, or use for a dedicated purpose, then it's a different matter. In this case though it's because it seems like a good tool for the job and I would expect take-up to be *higher* amongst the technically inclined.
In my opinion, "users who just want to get things done with a minimum (none, if possible) of hassle and administrative tasks that don't directly relate to what they are trying to do" could be more concisely expressed as "users who aren't insane" - after all, who actually wants the system to actively fight them?
When I have enough spare cash I'm planning on knocking up a small, ~20W, no-moving-parts, boots-in-10-seconds Atom machine as a secondary computer, and Chromium OS looks like the ideal choice.
2011 predictions Posted Jan 7, 2011 6:23 UTC (Fri) by jtc (subscriber, #6246) [Link]
"From my point of view non-geeks usually play games or use iTunes or Spotify or something else which ties them to Windows. Only geeks seem to use the web so exclusively that an OS like Chrome is a good fit."
Well, it seems to me that you're talking about the present and the near future. I'm talking about something beyond the near future and am, I suppose, arguing that the following assumptions cannot be taken for granted beyond the near future:
- Web/cloud-based games will not be adequate for most gamers.
- Sophisticated and powerful music (and video) services will not be available via the thin-client/cloud-based paradigm.
- All but the most specialized tasks (excluding, e.g., real-time music/audio and/or video recording/editing) cannot be adequately performed via the cloud.
In other words, I think the above will all be doable within, say, 10 years. Additionally, I think there are a lot of people who are not particularly into gaming. They use their computer for more ordinary things like email, editing documents, investing/trading, web-searching/research, etc. I think such ordinary tasks can already be, or soon will be, quite adequately accomplished via cloud-based systems.
It will take time, of course, for people to realize that they don't need Windows any more, but I think that will happen within the next 10 years.
'In my opinion, "users who just want to get things done with a minimum (none, if possible) of hassle and ..." could be more concisely expressed as "users who aren't insane"'
Well, I meant that ("users who just want ...") in a more extreme sense - i.e., the type of people who, for example, could not tolerate Ubuntu because it is too difficult to use and requires too much work not relevant to the task at hand. That's not me and I'm sure it's not you, but I think it is, say, at least 30% of today's computer users.
"When I have enough spare cash I'm planning on knocking up a small, ~20W, no-moving-parts, boots-in-10-seconds Atom machine as a secondary computer, and Chromium OS looks like the ideal choice."
Yes, I agree that this new paradigm is (for those who aren't philosophically opposed to the cloud paradigm - e.g., for reasons of data control, etc.) currently more interesting to geeks like us than to ordinary users, but I think that will dramatically change within 10 to 15 years.
2011 predictions Posted Jan 10, 2011 11:08 UTC (Mon) by nye (guest, #51576) [Link]
>Well, it seems to me that you're talking about the present and the near future. I'm talking about something beyond the near future
You're right there. I wouldn't care to speculate ten years ahead (well, I'll agree that operating systems will be commoditised and called 'browsers', which is really what you're describing), but I am - on balance - optimistic. The future of my childhood is more-or-less here (unlike the future of my parents', which seems quaintly absurd) and I'm looking forward to seeing what the next couple of decades have in store.
2011 predictions Posted Jan 10, 2011 13:00 UTC (Mon) by arafel (subscriber, #18557) [Link]
You're also effectively arguing that a massive amount of data transfer will be basically free, or at least included into a monthly plan. Not only that but that it will be the same when travelling abroad as well.
(Imagine incurring roaming charges for streaming audio/video because all your stuff is elsewhere. Urgh.)
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