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MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGoMeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGoPosted Nov 17, 2010 20:50 UTC (Wed) by nix (subscriber, #2304)Parent article: MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo
Over the next few years, there will be one billion new internet-connected users and 15 billion connected devicesThis number is just comical. That's well over two devices for every living human, or, given his own figures, ten to fifteen devices per each one of those new users. I can just see it in the Western world (laptop and phone-that-does-everything, plus a few hundred million at most for infrastructure, servers and the like), but outside the western world... well, mobiles are ubiquitous, but it's not one per person, not at all, and that seems fairly unlikely to change in such a short timespan (if a village has one or two phones, they get enormously more benefit than if they have none: if they have ten times as many they don't get much extra benefit but it costs a lot). Furthermore, where is the bandwidth for all these mobile devices going to come from? The airwaves are already clogged, and are projected to be clogged in no time flat even if the spectrum from the TV switchoff were entirely to be given to mobile-device dataflow, which is not happening. Ah well. We're in the new world, in which developer conferences are given by executive VPs. Expecting logic rather than marketing from people like that is surely unrealistic, but they could have tried to make the marketing figures not obviously ridiculous.
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15 billion? Posted Nov 17, 2010 22:03 UTC (Wed) by dmarti (subscriber, #11625) [Link] There's going to be a lot of "connected" machinery that's not the personal property of a user and that won't hog as much bandwidth as a user uploading videos or playing ARFPS games. Surveillance cameras in every public space, an RFID scanner in every shopping cart and every manufacturing station, "smart meters" for electricity, water, and gas, every nuclear power is going to need new SELinux uranium centrifuges of course, and probably towns on tight budgets are going to use a Tire Pressure Monitoring System-based scanner on every block and every parking space to catch any fineable traffic or parking infraction. 15 billion is on the low side, I tell you.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 17, 2010 23:08 UTC (Wed) by martinfick (subscriber, #4455) [Link]
Do you really think that only the western world lives in cities, that 2 billion people in China and India live in villages, and they can't afford more than one cell phone a piece? Is our anti China/India propaganda machine that strong?
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 18, 2010 16:27 UTC (Thu) by nix (subscriber, #2304) [Link]
No: of course there are a billion or so right there. But fifteen billion as a total figure given only a billion new users is a ludicrous combination, no matter how you slice it.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 18, 2010 17:41 UTC (Thu) by martinfick (subscriber, #4455) [Link]
6 billion people, leave 1 billion unconnected, so suppose 5 billion have 3 connected devices each -> 15 billion. Doesn't seem so ludicrous to me.
Possible sources of an average 3 devices a person (note that he did not say wireless): 1 home PC, 1 work PC, 1 laptop (work or home), 1 smartphone, 1-2 tablets, 1 set top box, 1 home automation device (sprinklers, thermostat...), 1 in car device...
You don't have to agree to this vision, but I would hardly say that it is a ludicrous claim. Someone in his position has to make an estimate, what's yours?
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 18, 2010 20:44 UTC (Thu) by jzbiciak (✭ supporter ✭, #5246) [Link] Right, but the original statement said 1 billion new users to go with those 15 billion connected devices, not 5 billion total users: Over the next few years, there will be one billion new internet-connected users and 15 billion connected devices, Fisher said. The assertion was that 15 billion total devices is comical even if you add 1 billion new users. To get to 5 billion total users adding only 1 billion new users, that means you need 4 billion users today, which sounds a bit high. Even if you assume there are 1 billion users today (which I don't think there are), that only gets you to 2 billion. Suppose we round it to around 10 connected devices per person. (This assumes 1.5 billion people connected, new and existing. It's also a nice, round number.) That's a lot of devices. Per person, you'd need something like this to get to 10 devices: a cell phone, laptop, office phone, TV, automobile, dishwasher, refrigerator, game system, home management system (ie. lights/security/temperature) and utility monitoring system (ie. smart meter). Per person. That seems a bit much.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 19, 2010 1:17 UTC (Fri) by martinfick (subscriber, #4455) [Link]
Maybe you should lookup some facts before your ridicule his prediction (and be certain that you understand his statement):
> Even if you assume there are 1 billion users today (which I don't think there are), that only gets you to 2 billion.
This article claims ~2 billion users connected today:
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats.htm
Interestingly enough, Asia has more connected users than the western world ~825M, but there penetration is only 21%, and in North America it is 77%. So, if you simply bring Asia up to %50 penetration, you would have already added close to 1 billion users (50% of today). That would be 3 billion, since 6b - 3b = 3 billion left to grow, 1 billion growth may in fact be low, conservative, actually.
Now, lets look at devices, this article claims 5 billion devices already:
http://www.circleid.com/posts/internet_connected_devices_...
5b devices with 2b users, an average of 2.5 devices per user.
Now, let's assume that all the current users only double their device usage (I would expect more). That would make 5b x 2 = 10b devices, close enough certainly to not make his claim ludicrous. Add 50% more Asian users to the equation at the same device rate, and boom 15b devices! Not far fetched at all. Again, this seems conservative to me, and it arrives at his estimate.
I have a feeling that users will actually do more than doubling their devices. Internet devices have typically been in the $500-$1000+ range. They are approaching the $100 on the low end now, this is a massive difference and will likely easily more than double the current # of devices per user and could greatly impact penetration also.
Given some facts, show me logic that would make his prediction seem ludicrous.
> Right, but the original statement said 1 billion new users to go with those 15 billion connected devices, not 5 billion total users:
No, while he could mean what you think he means, it would be a small leap to assume that. I don't read it that way. I do not think that he associated the 1 billion new users with those 15 billion connected devices. I believe those were two independent predictions, related only in context, not a strict causation. I could be wrong about my interpretation, but clearly it is a valid one given that sentence, and (as you would likely agree) it certainly makes more sense given the numbers.
After reading this article, I suspect that his prediction was by 2015. Note, that the Ericsson CEO thinks that there will be 50b connected devices by 2020:
http://gigaom.com/2010/04/14/ericsson-sees-the-internet-o...
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 19, 2010 4:27 UTC (Fri) by jzbiciak (✭ supporter ✭, #5246) [Link] Well, it certainly makes more sense when you actually show your work. :-) As Carl Sagan once said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. While this was more simply counterintuitive than extraordinary, it's still much easier to accept and understand now with references.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 19, 2010 4:31 UTC (Fri) by jzbiciak (✭ supporter ✭, #5246) [Link]
And to be clear, I wasn't the one ridiculing the prediction. I merely said that "yeah, it seems like a bit much." I'm just saying a claim like that earned a [citation needed] tag.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 18, 2010 4:36 UTC (Thu) by ccurtis (guest, #49713) [Link]
15 "connected devices" per person doesn't seem completely unreasonable to me. Off the top of my head, I can count that I have:
1) Desktop computer
In actuality I also have 2 laptops and 2-3 desktops that I don't use and am not counting. Modern TVs are internet connected, as are modern stereos. I expect modern MP3 or portable video players are as well.
In a very short time I expect cars will be connecting to Hot Spots to get traffic information, so I also expect some GPS devices to be internet connected as well. E-Book readers fall into this category as well, and as the electrical infrastructure gets smarter, virtually _every_ device using electricity will also become a "connected device".
I'm not really a 'gadget guy' so I expect that many people here have more items than the mere 6 that I listed and counted. Although I expect there will be some 'device consolidation' with time, it won't match the number of devices that gain connectivity.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 19, 2010 4:36 UTC (Fri) by thoffman (subscriber, #3063) [Link]
Two people, small apartment, 10 network connected devices, mostly Linux:
1) Homebuilt file server/home entertainment PC.
Within a year I guess we'll have a tablet or two, and 12 ip addresses.
MeeGo conference: Intel's and Nokia's visions of MeeGo Posted Nov 18, 2010 6:59 UTC (Thu) by ekj (guest, #1524) [Link]
It's not that one billion new users will bring 15 billion new devices.
It's that a) there will be one billion new users. And b) these users, plus the existing users, will increase the device-count by 15 billion.
Thus, if there's a total of 3 billion users (including the new billion), then each user needs on the average 5 devices more that are online-capable than they have today.
This seems not at all unreasonable, but depends a bit on the interpretation of "next few years" offcourse.
At the moment, we're mostly talking computers and infrastructure. (servers, laptops, routers, desktops) but in the western world, other devices are coming online now.
TVs come with internet-access built in. (atleast DLNA, sometimes more) Mobile phones come with internet as a core function. Cars hook up trough the mobile-phone. Radios become internet-radio-capable. Printers get their own ip-address and hook up to the wlan at home. home-security-systems become accessible over tcp/ip. Automation means tcp/ip may become involved when you press a *lightswitch* in your home. Digital cameras get wlan-access, in order to make the pics downloadable without needing a cable.
None of this is the future. This is tech that's at the early-adopter stage in the rich parts of the world NOW. I ain't counted, but I'm positive there's in excess of 25 devices in my home that speak tcp/ip, and if we include the devices I and my wife use exclusively at work, you can add another handful.
We're not typical - but I find it entirely plausible that when we've got probably 30 devices TODAY, that the average western rich-person will have 10 of them inside of the decade.
Now, not all of these devices are nessecarily globally reachable, some of them live on their own internal network that may or may not be connected to the global internet, but even when it is, there's typically NAT between, so they all appear as a single ip on the net. Nevertheless, if a device is capable of pinging lwn.net, I think it's reasonable to say the device is online.
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