Posted Oct 4, 2010 17:39 UTC (Mon) by khim
In reply to: Prediction the future is (very) hard
Parent article: McGrath: Proposal for a new Fedora project
You could just as well predict that since computer games has gotten insanely popular over the last decade, that's what one should focus on. This would be clearly incompatible with your future in the web browser.
Well, you've just picked up the best example you can imagine. Desktop games are dying. They are money-losers and few reach even break-even point. Consoles save them today, but it's not clear if the trend will last. Web-browser games are thriving - and most "serious" studios think how they can switch to web. Who will win the battle? Flash (which boasts 3D and C++ compatibility today), NaCl (which promises the same plus VMs like Mono), or some newcomer? The conclusion is not clear yet, but the fact remains: non-browser games are less and less popular, while browser-based games pick up the slack.
For a hypothetical example, by the time web browsers are powerful enough for office applications the fact that movies can easily be edited on that very same hardware made the desktop more important, not less.
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