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Prediction the future is (very) hard
Posted Oct 2, 2010 18:36 UTC (Sat) by job (guest, #670)
If we are to learn from previous attempts to predict the future, some applications will probably follow this trend but in a few years the increase in computer power would cause large shifts in what people want to do. For a hypothetical example, by the time web browsers are powerful enough for office applications the fact that movies can easily be edited on that very same hardware made the desktop more important, not less.
It is worth noting that Wired magazine had a cover story a few months back on how web apps were "out" now that everyone uses native "apps" instead. Some people make it their living spouting these predictions. There's no need to pay them any more attention that necessary. Focus on what's important.
Posted Oct 2, 2010 19:45 UTC (Sat) by mmcgrath (subscriber, #44906)
Posted Oct 4, 2010 17:39 UTC (Mon) by khim (subscriber, #9252)
You could just as well predict that since computer games has gotten insanely popular over the last decade, that's what one should focus on. This would be clearly incompatible with your future in the web browser.
Well, you've just picked up the best example you can imagine. Desktop games are dying. They are money-losers and few reach even break-even point. Consoles save them today, but it's not clear if the trend will last. Web-browser games are thriving - and most "serious" studios think how they can switch to web. Who will win the battle? Flash (which boasts 3D and C++ compatibility today), NaCl (which promises the same plus VMs like Mono), or some newcomer? The conclusion is not clear yet, but the fact remains: non-browser games are less and less popular, while browser-based games pick up the slack.
For a hypothetical example, by the time web browsers are powerful enough for office applications the fact that movies can easily be edited on that very same hardware made the desktop more important, not less.
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