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Prediction the future is (very) hardPrediction the future is (very) hardPosted Oct 2, 2010 12:40 UTC (Sat) by job (subscriber, #670)Parent article: McGrath: Proposal for a new Fedora project
OSF UNIX is the future. No single vendor will survive this multi vendor effort. (1994).
The object embedded desktop is the future! Apple and Microsoft bets a lot of money on this. Those who do not adapt will perish. (1996).
IA64 is the future. It is completely backed by Intel and will rule from the PC all the way to the supercomputers and mainframes. Other players will be run over so drop your own efforts and join while you can. (1998).
Thin clients are the future! Since everything will be written i Java anyway nobody will want a PC. (2000).
Desktop search is the future. Any desktop will need to implement metadata indexing this year or the users will abandon them completely. (2002)
These predictions come and go every few years and from the perspective of those who conceive them they are always completely inevitable. Only in a static world would their logic hold. But the world is complex and constantly changing so most predictions do not materialize.
The few that are proven to be correct creates new markets and leaves very little room for the original players to actually benefit. UNIX sort of won, with Windows as a new contender nobody expected, but none of the big players are still around to cash in. The IBM PC sort of won, but it is a market where IBM is irrelevant.
Those who survive these predictions are always the ones who solve real problems for real customers. And there are plenty of those. Pick the low hanging fruit first. Make Linux a fast and easy to use desktop. Those will be required even when web browsers are the only thing that run on them. By all means, do cool things with HTML and Javascript on the side, but don't ever let it take resources from what's important for your users.
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Prediction the future is (very) hard Posted Oct 2, 2010 13:37 UTC (Sat) by mmcgrath (guest, #44906) [Link]
> Pick the low hanging fruit first. Make Linux a fast and easy to use desktop.
You must be kidding. We've been trying that for years. For longer then I've been involved with Linux. So right now, at a time where people are more and more using internet connected devices, phones, tables, televisions, etc but the desktop less and less. Thats the time you think we should be focusing on the desktop?
Peoples comments here are completely missing the point. Anyone arguing that we should be focusing on the tiny 1% of the market / desktop we already have is just nuts. There's a whole 99% we could be targeting, simply by focusing on web efforts.
Prediction the future is (very) hard Posted Oct 2, 2010 15:45 UTC (Sat) by vonbrand (subscriber, #4458) [Link] "Web efforts" is one (or at most a half dozen) applications/programs on the average machine. It just won't get anywhere on its own.
Prediction the future is (very) hard Posted Oct 2, 2010 16:17 UTC (Sat) by mmcgrath (guest, #44906) [Link]
Today it is, yes. But I'm not talking about today am I?
Prediction the future is (very) hard Posted Oct 2, 2010 18:36 UTC (Sat) by job (subscriber, #670) [Link]
You can't extrapolate a few data points from today's trends to predict the future. You could just as well predict that since computer games has gotten insanely popular over the last decade, that's what one should focus on. This would be clearly incompatible with your future in the web browser.
If we are to learn from previous attempts to predict the future, some applications will probably follow this trend but in a few years the increase in computer power would cause large shifts in what people want to do. For a hypothetical example, by the time web browsers are powerful enough for office applications the fact that movies can easily be edited on that very same hardware made the desktop more important, not less.
It is worth noting that Wired magazine had a cover story a few months back on how web apps were "out" now that everyone uses native "apps" instead. Some people make it their living spouting these predictions. There's no need to pay them any more attention that necessary. Focus on what's important.
Prediction the future is (very) hard Posted Oct 2, 2010 19:45 UTC (Sat) by mmcgrath (guest, #44906) [Link]
> Focus on what's important.
That being?
Wow! Posted Oct 4, 2010 17:39 UTC (Mon) by khim (guest, #9252) [Link] You could just as well predict that since computer games has gotten insanely popular over the last decade, that's what one should focus on. This would be clearly incompatible with your future in the web browser. Well, you've just picked up the best example you can imagine. Desktop games are dying. They are money-losers and few reach even break-even point. Consoles save them today, but it's not clear if the trend will last. Web-browser games are thriving - and most "serious" studios think how they can switch to web. Who will win the battle? Flash (which boasts 3D and C++ compatibility today), NaCl (which promises the same plus VMs like Mono), or some newcomer? The conclusion is not clear yet, but the fact remains: non-browser games are less and less popular, while browser-based games pick up the slack. For a hypothetical example, by the time web browsers are powerful enough for office applications the fact that movies can easily be edited on that very same hardware made the desktop more important, not less. When browsers will be powerful enough to handle office applications they will be powerful enough to handle video. They are almost powerful enough today: the only limitation is JavaScript (which does not support thread), but there are many groups who try to overcome this limitation...
Prediction the future is (very) hard Posted Oct 3, 2010 22:36 UTC (Sun) by Wol (guest, #4433) [Link]
You missed microkernels! Microkernels are the future! Tannenbaum awarded Linus an F for his choice of a monolithic architecture in 1991.
Cheers,
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