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Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Posted Apr 8, 2010 19:32 UTC (Thu) by jspaleta (subscriber, #50639)
In reply to: Ubuntu switches search back to Google by bboissin
Parent article: Ubuntu switches search back to Google

It's only sad if you believe Google Trends is a substitute for deployment numbers.

Without even getting into issues of cross-brand penetration and what that means for doing comparative Google trending...if we just look at Ubuntu as a brand you'll see that the Google trend doesn't really make sense. It's been essentially stagnant across 2009 and so far in 2010. That's in direct conflict with the public statements Canonical executives have made concerning their estimated userbase growth over the same time period.

Nor is Google trends a reliable measure of relative deployment popularity. For example Google Trends shows exactly the opposite relative relationship between blackberry and iphone that the latest market survey data shows. Google Trends would suggest Ipod is the market leader..when the more traditional market survey says its blackberry.

references:
http://www.e-gear.com/article/blackberry-leads-smartphone...

http://www.google.com/trends?q=blackberry%2C+iphone&c...
http://www.google.com/trends?q=blackberry%2C+iphone&c...

Anyone holding up Google Trends data as a meaningful surrogate for product popularity is wasting your time and giving you a false sense of reality. Noone, anywhere, has a self-consistent testable market penetration interpretation of Google Trends that holds up to scrutiny as a valid analysis methodology. Its an easy thing to reach for, but it has no intrinsic value as a market penetration metric.

-jef


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Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Posted Apr 8, 2010 20:19 UTC (Thu) by bboissin (subscriber, #29506) [Link]

I only said it was interesting, I didn't draw any conclusions from it...

Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Posted Apr 12, 2010 1:17 UTC (Mon) by vonbrand (subscriber, #4458) [Link]

What is the interest of the data, if no conclusions can be reached from it?

Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Posted Apr 8, 2010 20:36 UTC (Thu) by drag (subscriber, #31333) [Link]

> It's only sad if you believe Google Trends is a substitute for deployment numbers.

I don't think that Google Trend is a accurate representation of deployments, but it is a somewhat telling marker for general interest.

Linux for years and years was just that something that people may have seen in a magazine article or saw mentioned in the news or something like that. Almost off-hand.

As time went buy a few people of the sort that tend to be interested in computers looked around and found out about Linux.

And Linux advocates combined with the netbook fad have actually gotten Linux out into the minds eye of the general public in a way that it never has before. It's gotten as close to mainstream as anything else.

And.... Linux has had VERY mixed results. This is not a result of Microsoft FUD or SCO or anything like that. This is just the average person is now exposed to Linux in the real world in ways that has never happened before.

Used to be if I was talking about computers in a group or talking about how to get rid of viruses or whatever and the subject came up and I would mention that I used Linux people would say: "Oh, what's that?"

Then I would have to awkwardly explain it in a quick way so as not to be a bore. Maybe tell them to download a Knoppix or something if they acted curious.

Nowadays those responses are mixed in with "You use Linux?! Oh, God; why?", to which I can only shrug and laugh and tell them it works for me.

Linux is the OS that refused to grow up. People who would be borderline interested are just starting to get tired of it due to chronic issues that never get seem to get solved on the desktop.

People that have had no interest to begin with still have no interest.

As far as professionals go, I think the majority of business IT folks are learning that Linux is a tool and there are very appropriate places to use it and thus the interest in the business sector is still going to increase as people's Linux skill sets continue to improve and systems becomes increasingly easy to manage and deploy.

But that sort of IT professional is only a tiny part of a potential market.

Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Posted Apr 8, 2010 22:05 UTC (Thu) by jspaleta (subscriber, #50639) [Link]

So for you Google Trends is a "general interest" metric? Really? Google Trends is telling you that global "general interest" in Ubuntu plateaued at the end of 2008 and has been declining since then? You really believe that that is what the downward trend in the Ubuntu line through 2009 and 2010 is saying? Because if you hold tight to your interpretation of Google Trends..that's exactly the conclusion you have to draw.

Ubuntu switches search back to Google

Posted Apr 8, 2010 23:30 UTC (Thu) by bboissin (subscriber, #29506) [Link]

The downward trend is relative to the overall number of searches, it's not an absolute number... There are new people going online everyday and they tend to be less interested in computers and technical details, so the downward trend can be expected.

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