The encoder licensing isn't all that exciting: Sure, it excludes authors using only legal freely licensed tools
The killer is that MPEG-LA demands royalty payments from content distributors. Though 'your first try is free' for the web until 2010, future pricing will depend on exactly how viable distributing only in unencumbered formats is at that time.
If everyone feels that they must offer H.264 or be incompatible they'll be no reason for that price to be especially low.
Even if you hate Theora and never intend on using it it's strongly in your best interest to encourage its robust adoption, unless you are one of the few companies participating in the MPEG-4 patent pool.
Specifying "one or the other" is a complete non-starter as the W3C's own IPR rules take H.264 out of consideration. Moreover, it would be short sighted: Ten years from now both H.264 and Theora will be considered old and lame compared to H.266 and Theora-III or whatever, as this is still a rapidly developing area. Legacy support is a fact of life, but having to carry around twice the legacy support is just double-uncool, especially since H.264 will still require licensing even when it is no longer anywhere close to the cutting edge and for a long time to come.